The red card to Sonny Bill Williams turned the All Blacks’ series against the British and Irish Lions on its head.
The referee had no choice but to send Williams off and, with that, the Lions were gift-wrapped an opportunity to take the series to a decider.
That the tourists struggled their way to victory has a lot to do with the way the All Blacks raised their game to cope with 14 men. In fact, the Kiwis will be bitterly disappointed to have let a game that they had no right in winning slip.
We have known for a long time that not having an out-and-out goal kicker would bite New Zealand and this was the occasion. Beauden Barrett makes one more of his kicks and it may have just been too much for the Lions to come back. Instead, the Lions turned the screws, scored two tries in quick succession, and shifted the whole tour.
So we return to the theme of fine lines in sport and the old cliché ‘what a difference a week makes’.
It is all hearsay but with no red card, there is a good chance that the Lions would be facing a very different final week on tour. Instead, New Zealand are under the most severe pressure and the Lions are riding high, sensing a unique chance to make history.
And that is what is at stake. If New Zealand lose, they damage the legacy of the jersey. If the Lions win, they cement their positions as one of the greatest rugby sides in history. It is not often a game of rugby has so much on the line.
[latest_videos_strip category=”rugby” name=”Rugby”]
What’s more, the home side are now feeling the strain of unavailabilities. Of a potential first-choice starting side, the Lions are without just Billy Vunipola and Stuart Hogg while the Kiwis have now lost Dane Coles, Ryan Crotty, Sonny Bill Williams and Ben Smith.
In the backline the All Blacks look particularly vulnerable, with the choice of who they play in midfield likely to cause the greatest headaches for selectors.
The British and Irish lads will sniff an opportunity there, they have looked dangerous when moving the ball, really stretching their opposition on a number of occasions. Further enforced changes will only heighten their confidence.
As for Eden Park factor, while it so often brings out the best in New Zealand, to think the All Blacks have a right to win is naïve. So too the logic that the home team will win purely on the fact that they always deliver a result after losing. This is a new side, one which we are yet to truly see how they cope under intense pressure.
And the side applying the pressure will be buoyed by an army of thousands of vocal supporters.
Uncle Eric
Guest
' too much aura around the All Blacks, just go and beat them', easier said than done Bob. You clearly are a master tactician and all round scholar of Rugby. Lucky for us antipodean hayseeds that you attached the 'English' bit to your handle otherwise we'd never have known you're a bleeding Pommy. No doubt you'll be back on this site tomorrow, irrespective of the outcome of tonight's game.
Jacko
Guest
If they have 14 men on the field
Jerry
Guest
Even better in 2008 - Game 1 in Sydney a 15 point loss, Game 2 in Auckland a 29 point win. A 44 point swing - now that's a backlash.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Ok, time to lay the chips down. ABs to run away with this one. A 15 point win and a three point loss with 14 men, despite being much worse on the injury front. ABs to start at an absolutely hellish pace and never let up. A great blend of age, skills, physicality in the backs and a few players needing to step up. Hansen's prepared his side many times for scenarios like this...must win matches, and has won them all. Lions also may finally be feeling the length of the season and just may finish it half an hour early. ABs by 26
Damo
Guest
I think the all blacks did bloody good for 14 players and no try. They nearly won. No other country could do better.
Uncle Eric
Guest
Marto, the font of all knowledge. You're not the Marto on Fox by any chance? Your comments align somewhat.
Uncle Eric
Guest
Bad news for the Lions is that the weather forecast is not too bad. Could even be reasonably dry underfoot.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
The All Blacks are under immense pressure but they'll probably feel that much of it was their own doing. They seem to be preparing to give a performance not unlike Dublin last year, but I'm slightly worried that over aggression will see another card or two. Please, please, please don't try to knock bloke's heads off! Bring the intensity but keep the arms low! Please, please, please.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I am still here! Ardie Savea scored a beautiful set piece try against Samoa in the warm-up test. So, the answer to all this is three tests ago.
englishbob
Guest
Can you name many more alternatives? Openside, Pocock needs a year off for some reason, he's just had two off with injury but whatever, and McMahon is injured. Hooker for example, polota now has been very hit and miss this year and was garbage in june, latu isn't fit enough. Flyhalf, Australia has two decent fly halves, when foley isn't concussed he's very good, quade is far too unreliable and just cant tackle. Half back - Phipps 5/10 or jake Gordon who is ok, genia is as slow as hell and Nic White was allowed to leave. So while I think Chek is a terrible tactical coach, seriously there's never any tactics or plan, his selections are usually ok on the basis that there's not much else to work with
ThugbyFan
Guest
G'day Fox, is this your prophecy for RWC2019? France bundles the AB out of the RWC in the quarter-finals, will meet England in semi-final. :)
ThugbyFan
Guest
Piru is so old that even the Iron ore beds of WA call him Sir. Make up your mind fellas, was he born post 2002 (last time WB held the B. Cup) or is he the last of the dinosaurs called RuggerSaurus?
ThugbyFan
Guest
Hi there RT and I completely agree with you re: rebuilding after losing so much talent/experience. Also the BIL have test experience in spades relative to the rebuilding AB. With Sam Cane and Ardie S. taking up the loss of "The God called Richie", the retirements haven't been severe within the forwards. I know everyone raves about K.Read and S.Cane but for mine the bloke who adds the starch to the backrow is J.Kaino, who plays for some little team up the north of NZ so I hear :) I feel the AB will notice his retirement more so that Richie's. But within the backs the retirements have had a big effect. To compound the loss of Nonu and C.Smith I really feel the AB have greatly suffered with losing Ben Smith, who not only is a very safe fullback who conjures up magical tries but now plays a large role in keeping the AB defence pattern aligned (C.Smith's old job). As an aside, would I have rocks in my head to suggest R.Ioane (or even M.Nanai) could be groomed as future fb to cover for B.Smith? The loss of R.Crotty has also really hurt, for as well as losing his excellent IC play and defence they have really missed his ruck work. The big problem is now and I'm not suggesting the AB are going to fall in a heap as they still have some fabulous players coming through the system but most of them lack the big E. I am at a bit of a loss as to who is going to play IC (#12) on Saturday as the 3 AB centres listed seem to be all OC for mine. I could be wrong so any ideas in that regard? Lets hope its a great match on Saturday and no send-offs.
Link
Guest
They put in 10,000 temporary seats for the 2011 Rugby World Cup Final ,why not this game ?? Bunnings sell white plastic chairs for $5..You have Bunnings over there??
Fox
Roar Guru
Assuming both sides make the semi final
piru
Roar Rookie
Jacko, first off ‘aura’ and ‘mythical’ mean two different things (although piru seems to assumed them the same) Not at all. I only ever (or only ever intend to) use the term in the context it's used by the northern (and bitter southern) scribes every year or so. That being that the reputation and surrounding mythos of the All Blacks means there is somehow more to beating them than playing a better game of rugby over the 80 mins.
Marto
Guest
englishbob @ We will never win the collisions because Michael Chieka continually selects the weakest forwards i have ever seen play for the Wallabies.. Mumm , Douglas, Skelton, Robertson, Hanigan, Hooper, Moore .Throw in a backline with some of the most skill-less insipid one dimensional players that have ever pulled on the GOLD jersey like Foley, Horne, Phipps and Folau and you have a Cheikas recipe for disaster.... They are NO CHANCE !! .. South Africa will roll them twice this year. .I predict 6 losses 1 win in the 2017 RC..
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Very decent of you to say so Jemainok. Jacko, first off 'aura' and 'mythical' mean two different things (although piru seems to assumed them the same) and my responses we're to two different posters making two different points as I understood it. To restate my position; I don't know anyone who thinks the success of NZ rugby is 'mythical' in the sense of being mysterious or imaginary. There are very real and obvious drivers behind it. My 'aura' comment reflects my observation that it's more often kiwi fans than others that tilt towards holding something almost spiritual about AB rugby. We don't share the same reverence. Not confused or suffering memory loss and don't ask you to agree with me.
CG
Guest
All Blacks by 20 this weekend
Marto
Guest
Oh dear ...