2017 AFL season: Round 16 preview

Only eight rounds remain until the finals get underway, with this weekend’s matches set to further shape the ladder and determine who remains in contention for the finals.

Round 16 kicks off with the Adelaide Crows hosting the premiers, with other matches to see Hawthorn host the GWS Giants in Tasmania, a traditional rivalry to continue at the MCG and the memory of Madeleine Riewoldt be honoured when St Kilda and Richmond face off at Etihad Stadium.

It will be a big day for the two WA teams on Sunday, with Fremantle away to North Melbourne before the West Coast Eagles host Port Adelaide at home to finish the round.

Here is your full preview to Round 16.

Adelaide Crows versus Western Bulldogs
Those within the inner-sanctum of the Western Bulldogs have continually denied it, but from the outside looking in, there appears to be definite talk of a premiership hangover at the Whitten Oval.

The Dogs’ premiership defence is on shaky ground, their seven-point loss to the West Coast Eagles marking their third loss in four games since the Round 11 bye.

Things will not get any easy for Luke Beveridge’s men this Friday night, when they travel to the City of Churches to face the Adelaide Crows, who remain in second place, half a game behind the GWS Giants.

The Crows, for their part, overcame a resilient Carlton side to win by only 12 points and ramp up the pressure on the Giants in the battle for the minor premiership.

But despite their impressive form all year, questions still continue to be asked in regards to their premiership aspirations, and whether they can perform when it matters most.

After starting the season 6-0, their standard has dropped off in recent weeks, dividing their last eight matches including losing to lowly sides North Melbourne and Hawthorn in Rounds 7 and 14 respectively.

A win on Friday night would be the perfect response to their recent patch of form, with matches against the likes of Melbourne, the Geelong Cats, Port Adelaide and the West Coast Eagles still to come.

After five straight meetings in Melbourne, the clash will mark the first time the Crows host the Western Bulldogs at the Adelaide Oval.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 32 points.

Hawthorn versus GWS Giants
The first match on Saturday sees the GWS Giants head south to the Apple Isle for the second time this season, this time to face Hawthorn in Launceston.

While the club remains on top of the ladder, their lead is now only by half a game, following their thrilling draw against the Geelong Cats last week.

In most cases, percentages don’t matter anymore when it comes to jostling for places in the eight.

Midfielder Tom Scully said that the Giants were even lucky to snatch a draw from the Cats, after they’d trailed by 20 points early in the final quarter.

Coming from behind has become a theme for the club this season, as evidenced in narrow wins over Collingwood and Richmond in rounds eight and nine respectively, but the Giants know that they cannot afford to take such a risk come September.

Now they will need to pick themselves up for the daunting trip to Tasmania to face the Hawks, who remain alive in season 2017 following their 24-point win over Collingwood at the MCG last week.

That followed on from their upset win over the Adelaide Crows at the Oval ten days before that.

Over the past few years the club has built an impenetrable record at UTAS Stadium, but earlier this season went down to St Kilda by 75 points in what was their first defeat at their secondary home for exactly five years.

However, they did beat the Brisbane Lions by 38 points back in Round 8, and still have one more match in Launceston to come against North Melbourne in Round 21.

On a significant note, Saturday’s clash falls five years to the day since the Hawks handed the Giants their worst club defeat in history – by 162 points at the MCG.

It was one of several triple-figure defeats the Giants suffered in their formative years, as they virtually played the role of a boys’ side against grown-up men for the early part of their existence.

However, Leon Cameron’s men have come a long way since then and have won their last two clashes against the Hawks, the most recent of them by a mind-boggling 75 points in Round 6 last year.

But facing the Hawks in Launceston will be a different proposition altogether, and, despite being four-and-a-half games in arrears of the Giants on the ladder, the home ground advantage should get the Hawks home in this one.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 11 points.

Collingwood versus Essendon
Crunch time arrives when two traditional rivals, Collingwood and Essendon, face off at the MCG this Saturday afternoon.

With just five wins all season, Pies coach Nathan Buckley is feeling the heat, with speculation growing that he will be sacked at season’s end, the club having regressed since he took over from Mick Malthouse at the end of the 2011 season.

Last week the Pies started brightly against Hawthorn, and stayed with the Hawks for most of the match before capitulating to lose by 24 points in captain Scott Pendlebury’s 250th game.

Now they face an Essendon side that will be hellbent on getting its season back on track after consecutive defeats that shouldn’t have been.

The Bombers’ misfortunes since their Round 13 bye continued when it lost to the Brisbane Lions by eight points at home last week, despite having been 27 points up early in the final quarter.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Captain Dyson Heppell has accused his players of being selfish, while CEO Xavier Campbell apologised to the club’s fans on Twitter for “not being good enough”.

That followed their heartbreaking one-point loss to the Sydney Swans, where they coughed up a 19-point lead with less than five minutes remaining.

The onus is now on the players to rebound as a finals berth continues to drift away from their reach, plus they can take heart from the fact that they did beat Collingwood on Anzac Day earlier this year.

So, can the Bombers bounce back or will the Pies draw level on their rivals with six wins for the season?

Prediction: Essendon by 10 points.

Sydney Swans versus Gold Coast Suns
Given how the season has unfolded so far, Saturday night’s clash between the Sydney Swans and Gold Coast Suns at the SCG looms as a make-or-break for both clubs.

After starting the season with six straight losses, the Swans have hit back hard, winning seven of their past eight matches to currently be sitting just outside the eight on the ladder.

Last Friday night they overcame the yips in front of goal, and a poor start, to defeat Melbourne by 35 points, boosting their percentage and any chances they have of participating in September for the eighth consecutive year.

They will be without Callum Mills, however, after he was the victim of a crude punch from Melbourne’s Tomas Bugg in the clash at the MCG.

Making their clash against the Suns crucial is the fact that Rodney Eade’s men have one less win than the Swans, which gives them the chance to draw level with their opponents, but still be behind on the ladder on percentage.

Inspired by 300-gamer Gary Ablett, the Suns claimed their sixth win of the season by beating North Melbourne by 19 points at home last Saturday night to keep their own finals chances alive.

However, facing the Swans at the SCG will be a different prospect altogether.

The Swans are one of two clubs (the other being the Adelaide Crows) the Suns have yet to beat since entering the AFL in 2011, winning their seven meetings by an average of 53 points.

On that basis, and the Swans’ dominant form, that hoodoo doesn’t look like ending anytime soon.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 30 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Geelong Cats
Saturday night sees the Geelong Cats travel north of the Murray for the second consecutive week, this time to face the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba.

Despite missing both Selwood brothers, as well as Daniel Menzel who was an 11th-hour withdrawal, and fielding three debutants for the first time since 2002, the Cats defied all before them to force a draw against the GWS Giants in Sydney last Saturday night.

They could have banked just their second interstate win for the season had Tom Hawkins nailed his set shot at goal after the final siren. Instead, the AFL had its first drawn match since Round 21, 2015, when the Cats were also involved, on that occasion against St Kilda.

If you think they’ll have it easy against the Brisbane Lions this Saturday night, then think again.

Despite struggling at the bottom of the ladder, the Lions have lifted since the Round 11 bye, winning two of their past four games and being competitive in defeats to Port Adelaide and the GWS Giants, the former at the Oval.

Last Sunday they came from 27 points down in the final quarter to upset Essendon by eight points at Etihad Stadium, boosting their chances of avoiding the wooden spoon in the process.

The win, which came without captain Dayne Beams, was marshaled by their younger brigade in Alex Witherden, Eric Hipwood and Hugh McCluggage, giving fans reason for optimism in the years to come after more than a decade in the doldrums.

But while they would love to carry the momentum into Saturday night’s clash at the Gabba, the Cats should prove too strong.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 32 points.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

St Kilda versus Richmond
Once again, the Riewoldt family will become the centre of focus when St Kilda face Richmond in the annual ‘Maddie’s Match’ at Etihad Stadium in Saturday night’s other clash.

The match will honour the memory of Nick Riewoldt’s sister, Maddie, who died at just 26 years of age after succumbing to a rare bone disease in early 2015.

On the field, Nick’s Saints will be hoping to continue their resurgence against Jack’s Tigers, who currently sit in fourth place on the ladder and are a good chance of claiming their first double chance since 2001.

Both teams claimed crucial wins on the road last week, the Saints ending five years of misery in Perth to defeat Fremantle by nine points and the Tigers, in their second visit to the City of Churches this season, coming from behind to upset Port Adelaide by 14 points.

While the Saints won the corresponding match quite easily last year, it will be a different Richmond side they face this Saturday night.

Nothing much was expected from Damien Hardwick’s men after the disappointment of 2016 in which they finished 13th with eight wins, but looking back, the dismal season could be what they exactly needed as they push for a top four berth this year.

Midfielder Dustin Martin, one of the favourites for the Brownlow Medal, has been central to the club’s climb up the ladder this year, and it will take some tagging work from the Saints midfield to bring him and the Tigers down.

It is proof that his uncertain future is not proving to be an impediment for the club, but with every good performance comes the growing speculation over where he will end up in 2018.

Another win for the Tigers and they’ll be one step closer to September, but for the Saints it will be about trying to keep their place in the eight.

Prediction: Richmond by 13 points.

North Melbourne versus Fremantle
The first match on Sunday afternoon sees North Melbourne face Fremantle at Etihad Stadium.

Having lost so much experience at the end of last season, many predicted that the Roos would struggle in 2017 but while they sit in 17th place on the ladder, they have given some teams a serious run for their money this year.

No performance was more impressive than when they produced a ten-goal opening quarter against the then-undefeated Adelaide Crows in Round 7, while not conceding a single point themselves.

But while they may be winless since Round 10, they will fancy their chances against a Fremantle side which has lost their last five matches, after winning six out of seven between rounds three and nine inclusive.

The Dockers again capitulated from a winning position to go down to St Kilda by nine points at home last week, drifting them further away from a berth in September.

A rather contentious 50-metre penalty given away by young defender Griffin Logue, after he’d been tricked by Saints veteran Nick Riewoldt into wasting time, proved to be the turning point in the match.

If they are to bounce back against the Roos, they’ll have to do it without forward Cam McCarthy, who is serving a fortnight’s suspension, while ruckman Aaron Sandilands won’t play again in 2017 due to a hamstring injury.

At stake for the Roos, on the other hand, is a fifth win and the chance to move further away from the wooden spoon.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 16 points.

Carlton versus Melbourne
The patience of Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin is set to be tested in the coming weeks, following a massive turn of events in the past month.

After losing co-captain Nathan Jones to a calf injury in Round 13, the Dees lost their other co-captain, Jack Viney, to a foot injury which forced him to miss the second half of last Friday night’s loss to the Sydney Swans.

Throw into that the lengthy six-week suspension Tomas Bugg copped at the judiciary overnight for striking Swan Callum Mills, in an incident which has led to calls for the AFL to introduce a send-off rule.

Former Essendon champion Tim Watson was scathing of the incident when discussing it on Channel Seven’s Talking Footy on Monday night, saying that it was unfair that the opposition had to play a man down for the majority of the match while the chief offender got to stay on the field.

Carlton, meanwhile, were brave for four quarters but failed to overcome the might of the Adelaide Crows at home last Saturday.

Prior to that, they’d defeated the GWS Giants and Gold Coast Suns, while they also gave Richmond a serious run for their money before going down by 25 points.

And they’ll fancy themselves against the Dees, to whom they lost by 22 points back in Round 2, given their opponents’ horrific injury toll which has claimed both their co-captains.

Prediction: Carlton by 10 points.

West Coast Eagles versus Port Adelaide
The final match of the round sees the West Coast Eagles host Port Adelaide in a battle of two finals hopefuls at Domain Stadium.

Given how the season is panning out, it’s fair to say that Port Adelaide have inherited the title of ‘flat-track bullies’ from the West Coast Eagles.

The Power’s struggles against top-eight sides continued last Saturday night when they went down to Richmond by 13 points at home, despite starting as heavy favourites.

(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)

This means that their only wins this season have come against the sides well below them on the ladder, raising concern for their finals credentials.

Having been lambasted for their inability to defeat quality opposition away from home this year, the West Coast Eagles laid their critics to rest by upsetting the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne last Saturday afternoon.

They did it without their captain, Shannon Hurn, as well as former Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis and two-time Coleman Medallist Josh Kennedy, all of whom sat out the match due to injury.

Kennedy is a chance of returning this week and his presence will only strengthen the side, which has not won consecutive matches since rounds seven to eight.

But while the Eagles haven’t beaten Port Adelaide at home since 2011, they will start favourites this Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 25 points.