This Sunday Carlton take on the Western Bulldogs at the M.C.G. The Blues are coming off a nail-biting defeat to Melbourne while the Bulldogs come into the match off the back of a 59-point loss to Adelaide.
What stats will matter the most when the two sides face off for the four points?
Carlton is ranked first in the competition for kicks, second for the most marks and second in least opponent marks conceded per game. The Bulldogs are ranked 15th in kicks per game, 17th in marks per game and last in marks margin difference per game.
Carlton have been exceptional in this aspect of its game and hold a reasonable advantage over the reigning premiers in this area.
This style executed by Brendon Bolton’s Blues has allowed Carlton to control and dictate the play in periods during matches this year. This shows why the Blues are currently ranked fourth in least opponent disposals conceded per game.
What makes this stat interesting is that Carlton is ranked 15th in disposals per game, so while the Carlton doesn’t get a lot of the ball, it’s restricting its opposition’s disposal output.
The Bulldogs are ranked second in the competition for handballs per game, first in tackles per game but last in opposition tackles conceded per game. Luke Beveridge’s side is also ranked fourth in handballs margin difference per match. The Doggies have the advantage in this area, Carlton are ranked last for handballs and last for handballs margin difference per match.
Both sides are in the bottom three for points per game, the Bulldogs are the third lowest scorers while the Blues are the lowest scoring team. These two sides also feature in the top 10 for least points conceded, the Doggies are seventh in this department and Carlton is tenth. Both teams are 2-4 in their last six games.
The Bulldogs will enter the match with seven wins and eight losses, currently one win out of the top eight. The Blues enter the match with five wins and nine losses, Carlton had the lead in the final quarter in five of those losses.
The Bulldogs are desperate for a win to keep up its premiership defence but it won’t be easy against a significantly improved Carlton side.
Macca
Guest
So titchy these days Mattyb, feeling the pressure? The blues saidright from the start this year, getting games into the youngsters is the most important for a club playing the patient long term game. Another key stat is how long it will take you to raise your head, lose and it will be a week, win and it will be about 2 seconds
The Original Buzz
Guest
I agree with there but they are up against a defensive side, so it will take a fair bit of cleaning up. Having said that, Melbourne managed to score a couple of easy goals last week by the defenders allowing their forwards too much space. I doubt that will happen this week. The Blues will need to fix up their fumbles as well, the Dogs will make them pay dearly for turnovers. I think the turnovers will be a stat that will be fairly indicative of the score line after the game. Another point is there are many games won this season by teams with less scoring shots. A few weeks ago, there were four games in one round won by straighter shooting and less scoring shots. It is the accuracy that seems to count more than ever this year.
Andrew Macdougall
Roar Pro
The Dogs lost by 59 points last Friday night to Adelaide even though they were: + 21 Clearances + 3 Inside 50s + 6 Contested Possessions What they lacked was clean entry into the forward line, which was highlighted by only taking nine marks inside 50. If the Dogs can tidy up this area of their game it will go a long way to beating Carlton.
The Original Buzz
Guest
I think the Blues will get up in this one. The Doggies need to rise and likely will but I think the defensive game will slow them down and work in Carlton's favour. Cripps out will hurt but I believe the Blues can cover the loss. It won't be about age or height, it will be about determination and tenacity at the ball and the Blues are the better team at that. Turnovers will play a big part in the final score as well and the Dogs will likely have less of them so it is a hard call either way. Which ever way it goes, it will be a close one. My tip is the Blues by less than 10 points.
Darren
Guest
And Rising Star nominees Matty? May as well go all in. Actually think you might win - last chance saloon for finals should fire the team up.
Sydneygirl
Guest
After last night's debacle who would even hazard a guess about this one. I agree well done to Carlton supporting this cause.
Mattyb
Guest
The most important stat from this game will be who fields the youngest side closely followed by who picks the most players under a cherry picked age,the winning and losing aspect of sport should always run second to these crucial statistics.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
I would love to see the Blues win this game but I think The Doggies will get up for this game. The loss of Cripps has really hurt the Blues and the Doggies I would imagine have been doing a lot of soul searching this week. Finals are out for Carlton and if the Dogs want to go into September this is a must win game. The Blues will be wearing bright orange socks for this game as part of their 'Carlton Respects' campaign in regards to gender equality, with a key focus on the prevention of violence against women. So proud that my club willingly supports such a great cause - well done Blues.
peter chrisp
Guest
An excellent summary with the Bulldogs recent losses and although The Blues have only won 5 games can they get over the line it will be quite an interesting game