The top eight storylines heading into the NRL finals

By Tom Rock / Expert

State of Origin is mercifully over for another year, so it’s time to shift the focus back to where it belongs – club footy. With only seven rounds left until the finals, here are the top eight storylines that I’ll keeping an eye on.

Sky Blue thinking
Ok, one more bit of Origin before we completely move on. There’s still the small matter of who’ll coach the New South Wales side in 2018 and beyond. The general consensus is that Laurie has done his dash, and discussions around who’ll replace him have been spreading faster than Cameron Smith platitudes in the Courier Mail newsroom.

I would encourage the Blues to think big. Take all perception of cost, availability and allegiances off the table, and identify the best possible candidate for the job. The person capable of taking the talented collection of players Daley has assembled, and transforming them into winners.

That man is Craig Bellamy, but only if he can take the job on a full-time basis. Bellamy possesses an unrivalled combination of passion, technical nous and man management skills, and the Blues could do with a healthy dose of all three.

I know he previously came up empty at Origin level, but he was juggling the job with his Melbourne commitments. If he can completely commit himself to the task, I have complete faith he will be successful.

Will Griffin get the Hook?
The Penrith Panthers were deserved pre-season favourites. Gus Gould had assembled a cracking roster, Matt Moylan had the look of rugby league’s next superstar, Nathan Cleary was the competition’s most promising young halfback, and a breathtaking brand of ad-lib footy had just carried the Panthers deep into the 2016 finals.

And yet, after 19 rounds, Penrith are sitting ninth on the competition ladder and are in real danger of missing the top eight. So what happened?

According to Griffin, it’s all a matter of perspective. The coach believes those who labelled Penrith as pre-season premiership contenders don’t know their footy. I believe that Griffin’s statement is a complete cop out aimed at taking the pressure off his players and saving his own skin.

The reality is that Hook is under immense pressure to retain his job at the foot of the mountains. The performance of his squad has fallen well below expectations, and he needs to be held accountable. If the Panthers qualify for the finals, Griffin keeps his job. If they fall short, well, maybe he can apply for the New South Wales gig.

(AAP Image/Dan Peled)

Better Knights to come
At this point, not even Super Hubert can save the Knights from being awarded their third consecutive wooden spoon. To avoid this inglorious honour, Newcastle must win at least four of their remaining seven games. And while this might not seem overly challenging, for the struggling Knights, it’s the equivalent of climbing Everest with your shoelaces tied together.

But the hopelessness of their situation doesn’t mean that there’s nothing left to play for. On the contrary, with the likes of Kalyn Ponga, Aidan Guerra, Tautau Moga, Connor Watson, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Herman Ese’ese joining the squad in 2018, many in the current side are playing for their future.

That desire to impress was on full display on Saturday evening against the Broncos. For the third time in a month, Newcastle stood toe to toe with a genuine contender, and almost produced a stunning upset. The Knights might not win another game this season, but they loom as an uncomfortable speed bump for a few aspiring top-eight sides.

Can anyone weather the Storm?
Watching the methodical manner in which Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk destroyed the Blues last Wednesday night, it begs the question – can anyone stop the Storm from hoisting the Premiership in 2017?

The Sharks? Maybe. But probably not. Melbourne’s squad has significantly improved from last year’s decider, while the Sharks have slightly regressed with the loss of Mick Ennis and Ben Barba. How about the Roosters? They’re a chance, but a lot will rest on how Mitchell Pearce responds after yet another failed Origin campaign.

North Queensland? Don’t think so. Not without Johnathan Thurston.

The Broncos just struggled to beat the Knights, Canberra are no certainties to make the finals, and Manly might still be another year away from being legitimate contenders. Short of Melbourne’s spine contracting an acute case of spondylolisthesis, I cannot see another team halting this southern juggernaut. They just have too much quality across the park.

In fact, one to 17, this may well be the strongest roster the Storm have assembled during their decade of dominance. Craig Bellamy is famous for turning water into wine, but he hasn’t even had to get his hands dirty this season. When you start off with a bottle of Grange, all you need to do it pop the cork and pour.

Sea Eagles soaring
I’ll put my hand up as one of the many people who wrote off Manly prior to the season. I thought Akuila Uate was finished, that Daly Cherry-Evans was overrated, that Martin Taupau would spend the season at the judiciary, and that Trent Barrett was way out of his depth as a first-grade coach. And once again, I have proven myself to possess the prognostic prowess of a used handkerchief.

The Sea Eagles have been sensational this season – they are the real surprise packets of the competition. Bob Fulton’s keen eye for talent has stocked the cupboards with quality footballers, and Barrett has moulded them into a very tight-knit and tenacious unit. But are they a legitimate premiership threat in 2017?

I would say yes. Unlike the Panthers and Raiders, who run very hot and cold, Manly play a very sustainable brand of footy. They have a quality spine, an improving pack of forwards, and strike power along the backline.

The only factor that may prevent them from going deep into the finals could be their lack of big game experience. Pencil them in as contenders in 2018.

Jimmy in debt
With Origin now out of the way, expect to hear a lot more from James Maloney regarding his contract. The Cronulla playmaker believes he’s underpaid, and it’s hard to argue with him.

Maloney has played almost 200 first grade games and nine Origins for NSW and has two premierships to his name. He’s also set to be paid less than Luke Brooks.

Unfortunately for Maloney, he’s only got himself to blame for his current contractual conundrum. He agreed to these terms with Cronulla, and the Sharks are not obliged to change them just because Maloney’s not happy with his end of the bargain. They don’t have to, but they will.

Releasing Maloney from the final year of his contract would be a smart move by the Sharks. They would rid themselves of a defensive liability and potential distraction, while simultaneously opening the door for Cooper Cronk.

The addition of Cronk to the already formidable core of Paul Gallen, Luke Lewis, Valentine Holmes, Wade Graham and Josh Dugan would make Cronulla early premiership favourites in 2018.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Flat brims at ten paces
I understand where the players are coming from. They see themselves as rugby league’s primary revenue stream, and as such, they want a bigger slice of the pie. They’re also looking for a seat at the grown-ups table when the game’s big issues are being discussed and important decisions are being made. I get all that.

However the players need to tread carefully. As it stands, the general public are indifferent on this issue. With club footy serving as a convenient distraction, the ongoing pay dispute between the NRL and the RLPA is just an annoying sideshow that people hope will just go away by itself.

But as the Aussie cricketers are discovering, public sympathy for highly paid athletes wanting more money quickly evaporates when the threat of a strike is on the table. The players dragged this private matter into the public domain by using their Origin soapbox to criticise the NRL, and it will be interesting to watch how they navigate the uncertainties that lie ahead.

Monday Madness
The Monday following the final game of the regular season is fast becoming one of my favourite days of the year. Despite stern warnings from club and NRL officials, someone, somewhere, will do something stupid and find himself on the back page of the Telegraph.

It’s inevitable. When you’ve got eight groups of young blokes on the cans all day after nine months of arduous training, something’s gotta give. And it will. Sometimes it involves an animal, other times it’s women’s clothing and there might even be a fight or two. But one thing’s for sure, it’ll be entertaining.

5th Tackle Option
Here are five quick thoughts on the action from Round 19.

1. Unbelievable conditions on the Gold Coast. I expected to see Kevin Costner sailing past in his post-apocalyptic catamaran. The water pooling on the field combined with the blinding glare reflecting off of it were like nothing I have ever witnessed. It was like watching ice hockey at times, with bodies flying in every direction and nobody quite sure where the ball was. Sensational stuff.

2. That was a massive win by the Panthers. With their season well and truly in the balance and their skipper on the sidelines, Penrith made the tough road trip to Manu Vatuvei Stadium and came away with the two points. Even more encouraging for Penrith fans was the performance of Nathan Cleary. The young halfback has delivered a steady sophomore season so far, but this was by far his most dominant performance to date. Good signs of things to come.

3. And while I’m on the subject, it would be remiss of me not to praise the Warriors for their fitting farewell to club legend Manu Vatuvei. The Beast has been an incredible contributor to the game for both the Warriors and the Kiwi side for over a decade. He leaves the game with 226 first grade appearances, 28 Tests for New Zealand, 152 NRL tries (18th all-time), a grand final appearance, and a whole lot of respect.

4. A Dave Taylor sighting!

5. I’m not sure how much cardio Anthony Milford did during his stint on the sidelines, but he was looking very heavy on Saturday night. You have to wonder if the extra weight he’s carrying is having any impact on his speed and acceleration.

The Crowd Says:

2017-07-18T03:42:37+00:00

ehx

Guest


no

2017-07-17T10:39:22+00:00

Thomas C

Guest


Griffin has had a little bad luck with injuries to Wallace, Mansour and needing to put Moylan in lower grades. Tamou isn't setting the world alight like he used to. And the Te Maire Martin admitted his heart wasn't in it. The teams that win the comp are often the teams lucky enough to have their team hold together and not be chopping and changing combinations. Same issue with the broncs (issues with 6,7, 9, 1), where Bennett made statements about still trying to work out team composition.

2017-07-17T09:38:21+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


Another reason I think the Sharks can go back to back is they have the easiest last round out of the potential top fours. Storm will have Raiders who are a big pack and possibly playing for their season in the last game . Broncos v Cowboys is usually a war of attrition going by their previous games and they might be playing for top 4 positions. Manly have the Panthers and Roosters have Titans who would likely be playing for top 8 positions and have pretty handy teams. The following week is finals against a fellow top four team and that week pretty much determines the Grand finalists so Sharks if they get through get another week off. I think they have the best run going into finals.

AUTHOR

2017-07-17T07:43:58+00:00

Tom Rock

Expert


Matt Elliot, that will do me.

2017-07-17T07:37:43+00:00

Greg

Guest


Yes but Bellamy has no influence on the U20's team. Bellamy made his coaching debut the same game as Slater made his first grade debut which means Slater already had the blinding speed he has built his career on. In his book 'Home Truths' Bellamy makes it crystal clear that he has no involvement at all in the retention and recruitment of players, he just coaches the team he is given. He may have written that to save his skin, or he may be the luckiest coach in history by having a superstar team built for him, either way we'll never know.

2017-07-17T07:37:12+00:00

Gray-Hand

Guest


The Broncos passed on Cameron Smith in favour of Barry Berigan (brother of Sean). All of these future immortals were absolute nobodies before they met Bellamy. That's not a coincidence. Pointing to the GF loss to Manly as evidence that Bellamy's success is dependant in Smith is faulty logic. Smith is arguably the best player and captain of his generation. Obviously Bellamy can't sub in a player of the same quality on a week's notice. Having said that, Bellamy isn't the answer for NSW. Bellamy is the type of coach that builds a team to play to some pretty rigid structures. That simply takes more time than an origin coach has to work with.

2017-07-17T07:29:30+00:00

Greg

Guest


Bellamy had three Origin series and won only 2 games in three years - he has the worst record of any coach in the NRL era. To suggest he should be given another crack is just wrong.

2017-07-17T06:53:45+00:00

Wild Eagle

Guest


Bellamy has been the long term coach of a team with three of the best players of all time for all of that period. The three players have also played a massive number of games and are in the key positions. It will be hard to judge Bellamy's greatness as a coach until he has a less stellar long term roster. Tim Sheens had just as good a roster in my opinion and like many coaches left and ended up at a more normal scenario roster wise and his results largely followed the poorer roster. Des Hasler left a club with a premiership winning roster for a club with a strong roster and is just about to be sacked. The very strong evidence suggests that coaches only have medium and long term success when they have one of the top rosters. I believe that the evidence is extremely strong that Cameron Smith is the most influential person in the NRL over the last decade by a country mile. Players like him draw the best out of the players around him regardless of the coach I believe. The highly rated coaches have an advantage when they move to a new club as well of bringing players with them, like Bennett did at Newcastle and Hasler to some extent at the dogs but with little effect. I can't be so sure but my gut feel has long been that the Eagles recent GF wins were inspired more by the talents and sheer will to win of Brett Stewart which rubbed off on the rest of the team than any other factor. Debatable point for sure but that is how I feel.

2017-07-17T05:39:17+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


Sure they were playing together doesn't mean they were anywhere near the Big 3 that they became at the Storm. As I said Cronk didn't even have a position, he was a utility player and was turned into a 7 by Bellamy (via M.Johns) at the Storm. Billy couldn't get into an NRL team until he came to the Storm...if he was that good and they were such a winning combination why weren't they grabbed by the Broncos or in Billy's case the Cowboys. The fact that he couldn't even get into the Cowboys proves my point that they were nothing special. Oddly enough Munster was also in the Cowboys development squad but they didn't think he was good enough. Munster played QLD 20's after he was contracted at the Storm. He played hooker as a kid and missed out of rep teams because he was too short. Maybe of the lot Cam Smith was already a very good player and would likely to have got into an NRL team but the others were far from sure things.

2017-07-17T04:53:38+00:00

Greg

Guest


Weren't that good? Cronk played in the Australian Schoolboys team.....Munster played Origin in the under 20's, he's always been a good player as well....Slater is from Innisfail - 1,600km's from Brisbane, he grew up as a Cowboys fan and had no desire to play for the Broncos The Big 3 were winning games together long before Bellamy got hold of them https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/db/e8/26/dbe826c455fa94c952dc81e3c3108a5a.jpg

AUTHOR

2017-07-17T04:10:38+00:00

Tom Rock

Expert


I can always count on you to keep me en-pointe

2017-07-17T04:07:41+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


I don't think Bellamy should coach the NSW side. I think that requires a different skillset, more inspirational and less technical and I think Bellamy is more of a technical coach. Bellamy's coaching starts in the pre-season and the team is trained and drilled so well over the season its like they're on autopilot. Definitely not the 3 week preparation type of coach. I also like to add that a part of Qld success is because of Bellamy due to the Storm influence, those combinations don't spring up over a 9 week period under Mal/Walters. Sharks are the team to beat the Storm now that Origin is over. I think Flanagan wasn't prepared for the Origin period like the Storm are who are used to losing their spine. Now that its over and they are getting players back on deck including from injury e.g. Segeyaro they have the team to go back to back. The difference between them and the Storm is experience...guys like Lewis and Gallen and their Origin contingent. Their bench also has the same with Heighington, Segeyaro, Bukuya. Storm have some young guys in their team who haven't been tested in the big arena and may come back to bite in big moments...e.g. Welsh penalty in the GF that led to Fifita's try. I also rate the Roosters a big chance if their attack clicks, deadly across the park. There's also the old Storm foes Manly who usually deliver whenever they come up against the Storm. They have been awesome this year with their team of castoffs.

2017-07-17T04:01:01+00:00

Michael Keeffe

Roar Guru


Just keeping you on your toes Tom.

2017-07-17T03:59:11+00:00

spruce moose

Guest


Two ways to answer that 1. They were near the top before he got injured. They have looked lost since. 2. Well, you wouldn't play as well if you didn't have Slater, Smith and Cronk in your spine.

2017-07-17T03:52:49+00:00

KenW

Guest


The sample of 1 Origin series and 1 GF is too small to be anything except anecdotal. But I otherwise agree with bear54, Bellamy's career is completely tied up with Smith's career. Where Smith fits on an all-time lists of greats is arguable but he is clearly the best player I've ever seen at making those around him better. It's just the sheer amount of good decisions the man makes, when to run, when to pass, when to kick, who to get the ball to - everything actioned cleanly, smoothly and quickly. The players around him have more space and better opportunities than players in other teams. The Storm's much hyped ability to discover talent in washed up players could be attributed as much to Smith as Bellamy then. However I think it's actually mostly hot-air, they've had some success but their hit-rate doesn't appear better than most other teams in the comp. If Uate, Vaughn or Jarrod Wallace were playing for the Storm we'd be hearing all about how their amazing systems are the cause of these players rise after switching to new teams this year but they're not, so I guess they're just doing it all on their own.

2017-07-17T03:49:10+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


Yes, totally agree on the Panthers. I definitely think there was more hype than actual analysis when rating them as a top and premiership favourite before the season started. This weekends game against the Titans is going to be very interesting as both their season will hinge on the result.

2017-07-17T03:39:43+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


Tom you are 100% correct. Add to that it was Bellamy who shaped these players. They're all on record saying that they are the players and people they are today because of Bellamy. That included Inglis. Also to say that these players would have been superstars regardless of Bellamy is wishful thinking. These players couldn't get into the Broncos so they obviously weren't that good. When he first started I doubt any Qld kid would have chosen the Storm over the Broncos...and that goes for NSW and Kiwi sides too. First choice would have been a home team with Storm close to the end of their list due to having to move and not so warm weather. Cronk started as a utility playing hooker and centre. Everyone now knows Munster's story...scouts said 'too soft'. Slater couldn't get a gig and was on last chance saloon when he made the desperate drive to Melbourne for trials. Its not only the big names but also the likes of Dallas Johnson, Ryan Hoffman, Adam Blair, Proctor, Widdop all debut at the Storm under Bellamy. For all his years I can't remember Bellamy purchasing a big name player...now compare that to other clubs and other coaches. In fact next season looks like a buying spree due to Cronk leaving but so far the only 'big' name is Sam Kasiano who plays off the bench at Dogs similar to Finucane who was the other big buy in 2014. No doubt Bellamy is one of the greats when it comes to coaching. In fact according to Joey Johns he rates him the best coach he's ever seen.

2017-07-17T03:35:52+00:00

Craig

Guest


Have you watched the dragons this year and last? Widdop has been awful.

AUTHOR

2017-07-17T03:34:38+00:00

Tom Rock

Expert


I could see that happening, but only if they snag Cronk

AUTHOR

2017-07-17T03:34:03+00:00

Tom Rock

Expert


Thanks EHX. I feel quite stinky after that series. I was actually preparing to write a lengthy article bagging the Blues for their putrid performance, their complete inability to win at Origin level, and the dominance of Queensland. But about 65,000 articles popped up in the days following the game. So I thought that no one would care if I posted one the following Monday. That's why I shifted the focus back to club footy. But let it be known that I was wrong, and Queensland were right. I went the early crow, baited banana benders with smug banter, and it came back to bite me in shattering fashion. NSW are terrible, and will never win another Origin series. Queensland are the greatest footy side to ever lace up a boot, and may never be beaten again. So there, happy?

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