Five reasons Conor McGregor could beat Floyd Mayweather, part 2

In my previous article I outlined two reasons why Conor McGregor, though a rank outsider, may actually have a chance to beat Floyd Mayweather. Here I present the last three.

Punching power and hands
It is the worst-kept secret in boxing that Floyd Mayweather has fragile hands. In fact it is perhaps the biggest weakness for a man considered the best defensive boxer of all time.

That is not to say that Mayweather has nothing behind his punches – he clearly does; no fighter has ever succeeded at just walking through his defences – but the fact remains that he is not a power puncher.

Since 2005 Mayweather has only recorded two stoppages: one against Ricky Hatton and the other his infamous ‘cheap-shot’ against Victor Ortiz. The result of this is a general consensus that Mayweather is unlikely to knock out McGregor. So what advantage does this give Conor?

Unlike Floyd, McGregor is a power puncher. While he might not be the hardest puncher Floyd will have ever faced, his accuracy and speed are devastating. The most famous example of his lethal hands is his 13-second knock-out of Jose Aldo, in the video below.

Conor is unlikely to catch Mayweather coming forward like he did Aldo, but his punching power and accuracy are still significant. In the initial rounds, while Mayweather is adjusting to Conor’s odds angle and distance, McGregor has a real chance to catch Floyd. If he does look in danger or gets tagged, Mayweather may have to resort to one of his tried and tested tricks to get himself out of trouble: the clinch.

The clinch
One of the many things that makes Mayweather a great defensive boxer is his ability to nullify attacks by employing a variety of clinches when in trouble, and probably the most famous example of Floyd clinching is in his fight against Shane Mosley.

One of the few times Mayweather has been properly tagged with a punch, Floyd saved himself by immediately grabbing Mosley’s arm and attempting to hold on while he recovered, as per the video.

I think the clinch may be one of the most interesting aspects of this fight. Attempting to use the clinch to control momentum will not work as well against mixed martial arts fighters, who are generally much more adept on the inside.

Conor will be hoping that Mayweather turns the match into an inside fight. By using his bigger body, MMA positioning and dirty boxing, McGregor would dominate Floyd in the clinch in a way he has never experienced. If Conor is to win, it may well be on the back of inside tactics.

He needs to be dirty, rough and physical, and he can do it all from in the clinch. Considering this, relying on holding to get himself out of trouble would be a mistake for Floyd – in fact I am sure that the referee will be instructed to break up any clinch-type situation very quickly.

The Conor factor
The last of my factors is Conor himself. Physically and mentally Conor has the ability to enforce himself upon Floyd.

Physically the most important advantage McGregor has is that he is the biggest opponent Mayweather has ever fought. Of all of Mayweather’s 49 opponents, none have a longer recorded reach than McGregor’s 188 centimetres. Combine this with Conor’s power, and Floyd has never fought someone with Conor’s combination of strength and reach. The advantages that this gives Conor are significant.

But perhaps more interesting than his physical dominance is the mental weapons McGregor uses. While Conor does tend to control a fight through various taunts, this will probably be nothing new to Mayweather, who has seen the best taunts the boxing world can throw at him and delivered some of the best himself.

However, it is not verbal taunts, smiles or showboating that is Conor’s best weapon; rather, it is a subtle use of body language that seems to lure opponents into a false sense of calm. Watch the way Conor moves at the start of his fight against Eddie Alvarez.

As you can see in the clip, when facing an opponent Conor likes to extend his right hand out to gauge distance, but in doing so slows the tempo of an attack. His movements are fluid and almost calming in their reception.

MMA analyst Robin Black has claimed that this psychical manipulation imbibes a “spontaneous interpersonal synchronisation” in the other fighter, who reads Conor’s calm movements and finds it very hard not to react in a similar way. This is of course to their detriment, as Conor follows these movements with extremely quick jabs or a straight left.

Whether this will be of any practical use against Mayweather remains to be seen, as he does not tend to approach fights with aggression. However, these odd movements and tendencies contribute to Conor McGregor having what can only be called ‘X-factor’.

For the record, I see Floyd winning this fight after 12 rounds with a unanimous decision, but it will not without risk. To fight another traditional boxer would have been the easy way for Mayweather to get his 50; instead he has rolled the dice and backed his ability against what for him is a real unknown entity.

He should be congratulated for that, if nothing else.