For both teams striding out onto the Saitama Stadium pitch on the 31st – the Japanese soaking in the whoops and roars of the home crowd, the Roos doing their best to shut them out – the significance of the fixture will be firmly in mind.
A win in Tokyo would see the Socceroos take a grand bound toward automatic qualification, and would mean leapfrogging Japan in the group. The Samurai Blue – the current leaders – having spurned an opportunity to put telling distance between them and their Group B opponents in the last round, will be determined not to scupper this next chance.
It will be a tetchy game; pressure can so often wrap constricting tendrils around the limbs of a sporting contest, and so both teams ought to prepare for a battle in which the finer details will be critical.
In their last match, a disappointing 1-1 draw away to Iraq – a team already cast adrift along with Thailand at the foot of the group table – Japan were still able to muster a performance that, if not quite securing the maximum points return, still exhibited their strengths as a team.
It was a stodgy affair against Iraq, with the Iraqis fouling often – the match foul tally ended 16 to 8 in favour of the Iraqi team – and set up to pump long balls deep into the Japan defensive half.
Still, the first half nonetheless saw some sweeping counter-attacking moves from the Japanese, the exact kind that tend to trouble Australia and Ange Postecoglou’s back-three system.
Sudden counter-attacks that apply devastating pressure to the space created behind drawn-out wing-backs are the poison to a back-three system, causing the centre-halves to scuttle out into uncomfortable wide areas to try and quell the threat.
Here, Iraq make handsome progress down the far side, until the bouncing ball is cut out by Gen Shoji. The sudden transition, speared down the middle, the carried on at the feet of Genki Haraguchi, is typical of Japan in fine form.
Their team is less a collection of disparate parts, and more a high-spec, interconnected machine, capable of combining with preternatural coherence. One and two-touch passing, and syncopated off-the-ball runs are both commonplace sights when Japan break, even under heavy pressure.
A little later, the same again occurred, this time from the near side corner. Aerial duels are being staged deep in Japanese territory, until a skied clearance is caressed sublimely by striker Yuya Osako. Suddenly a central breakaway is in frantic flight, and the only way the Iraqi centre-halves can stop it is by fouling, earning an early booking.
When the body-check occurs, there are flanking Japanese runners on either side of the field, and central support following up; this is how swiftly Japan can assemble themselves on the break.
A third example, perhaps the best of the lot, was again presented in the first half. A punt deep into the right corner of the Japanese defence is made – not unlike one someone like say Mark Milligan might make toward a charging left wing-back – and is cleared blindly up field by Hiroki Sakai.
Fortuitously, the ball lands at the feet of a Japanese attacker, but the sequence that follows is a symphony of light motif touches and passing, each more delicate and balanced than the last, all arranged at high-speed on the break. The final cadence was left ringing atonally though, as what would have been the crowning pass is over-hit.
It’s no coincidence the break targeted the Iraqi’s left side, vulnerable and scrambling as it was following the unsuccessful long-ball raid.
The flanks, and the defensive abilities of the players selected to play wing-back, have been the most tremulous aspect of Postecoglu’s system.
(Image: AAP/Joe Castro)
Wing-backs, in theory, are supposed to add defensive reinforcement when out of possession, creating a formidable back-five. But so much of that theoretical success depends on the practical positional instincts of the individuals filling these roles. We’ve seen so many errors – as well as significant personnel turnover – in these areas over the last handful of games, to the point where they still stand as the most pressing areas of concern.
It would be wise to put in place additional safeguards for the match in Tokyo. Aziz Behich or Alex Gersbach, both natural full-backs, should start on the left. If Matt Leckie is to start as right wing-back, then it’s essential Mark Milligan plays in the midfield, or on the right side of the back three.
Not only is Milligan more mobile midfield choice than captain Mile Jedinak, or defensive alternative Milos Degenek, helping better to clamp down on slippery Japanese midfielders and attackers, his positional instincts are second to none in the national team, and his covering of the wing-backs – especially Leckie – will be essential.
Bailey Wright, a highly traditional centre-half, is not especially suited to being one third of a back three – and has shown as much – and so Ryan McGowan, or newly called-up Matt Jurman would make excellent replacements. Jurman is left-footed, and would slot in nicely on the left side of the back-three. Obviously, Trent Sainsbury will occupy the middle.
(Peter Macalpine – Flickr)
If Milligan is in the back three, as he was to such success against Chile in the Confederations Cup, a midfield of Mooy and Jackson Irvine would be athletic and mobile enough to match the Japanese skill and speed with skill and speed of their own.
Irvine is a prodigious athlete, and a venomous tackler, and pairs well with the careful ball-playing Mooy. This takes care of the back half of the team. As far as Australian attackers go, Tomi Juric might be our most in-form player, and his size and strength will be very helpful against Japan.
James Troisi scored our last international goal, and always provides a spritz of pace and directness whenever he plays. Tom Rogic, certainly our most skilled attacker, is also likely to earn a spot in the starting XI.
These players can interchange, swapping sides, and both can drop deeper into midfield to affect the game there. Tim Cahill and Jamie Maclaren might also be used in a recessed striker’s role, the former offering increased aerial supremacy, the latter an increased threat to dart suddenly in behind the line of defence.
Japan are a well-drilled unit, and they defend as a team almost as fluently as they attack. Take this example from the Iraq game: as the Iraqis linger patiently around the halfway line, it’s actually the Japanese defensive midfielder, Wataru Endo, who slides out to meet the man in possession as the ball is worked out to the far flank.
Endo is beaten badly by a neat turn, but you can see that his diligence meant the other right-sided Japanese defenders could stay assembled in defensive formation, and as the Iraqi player makes further progress, he runs into a cul-de-sac.
The Japanese funnel the play inside, still well stocked with marshalling defenders, and as the ball trickles across the box, it’s actually the No.11, winger Yuya Kubo, who clears the ball, having tracked all the way back on the weak side. The sequence displays a remarkable sense of group responsibility, of a shared and maintained duty to all contribute defensively.
It won’t be easy to break down the Japanese defence, and their attack will be even more formidable, assuming Shinji Kagawa – who missed the Iraq tie through injury but has recently returned to training at Dortmund – is back in the squad.
Ange and Australia will know that a draw against Japan, and a win over Thailand on September fifth, ought to be enough to finish in the automatic qualification spots, assuming Japan also win their final tie against Saudi Arabia – who are equal on points with Australia – which is also on September fifth.
This should breed a sensible sense of conservatism for the match in Tokyo, and hopefully the Socceroos team-sheet and tactics reflect that. Australia will not cower under the heat of the occasion; we have won important qualification games before. But Japan are well equipped – almost purpose-built – to puncture our weakest points, and we’ll have to prepare every method of avoiding their prongs.
Arto
Guest
I'd say it's a very Dangerous idea to play for the Draw in Japan - we certainly don't want to be chasing the game and it would leave us in a horrible position to get a result if we fall behind with 15-20mins to og. I also don't think Postecoglu thinks that way - he'll be going for the win and will set up his side with that idea in mind. I agree with your view that Japan is a nightmare side for us given our recent struggles on the defensive flanks. It's a good article that makes for some good points of discussion. For what they're Worth, here's my 2 cents: - Jedinak should probably fly with the squad, but it'll be a big risk to play him given his current physical shape (better off for his leadership abilities prior to kick-off), - Mooy's not particularly fast (Ger ver 2.0 showed us that in Russia) so playing him as one of the 2 DMs requires a quick/pacy partner. Not sure who is the quickest or more importantly can cover the position best, but it may be a question of which position do we cater for most: Milligan as DM or CB in order to cover his partners. I though Luongo had a good game against Chile so maybe he should get the nod (despite his shocker against Ger). - Leckie seems to be being played as a WB at Hertha so he might be ok against Jap (he just needs to guard against committing himself in the tackle too early as he has a tendency to do still). He'll certainly have the engines and pace to provide defensive cover it'll more boil down to his defensive smarts, I think. - Rogic & Troisi as a AM pair might be a great combo against Jap due to their direct approach and if we play Cahill in front of them we'll have a pretty lively Front 3rd. I think Cahill would be the more mobile player between him & Juric and tbh, our formation & current personnel requires us to come around on the flanks in order to get a cross in (something I can't see us doing an awful ot of in this game, tbh). - Finally, I think Postecoglu has to pick a starting line-up that can overpower Japan, not so much physically through strong arm tactics, but through a type of 'gegenpress' that simply rushes the Japanese too much that they make too many mistakes. If we win the fitness/pressing battle in Saitama, we'll probably win the game too as we enough quality to engineer a goal or 2 - it'll be more a question of whether we can run enough to negate Japan's gameplan.
Arto
Guest
Good article, Evan - if a bit too much waxing lyrical for my liking - with lots of good points to back up the analysis. This should be a cracking game actually with all that is at stake for both teams - given that the Saudi vs Japan game kicks off AFTER the Aus vs Thailand game a loss for us may be VERY significant if Saudi beat UAE on Aug 29! A little note on Gersbach (as I live in Norway & follow his progress with RBK), he probably won't be coming into camp with a great deal of mins under his belt as he's not 1st Choice (only played half of the League matches this season and is considered a reserve for European matches). I wouldn't be surprised if Postecoglu goes for Behich in such an important game.
Paul
Guest
His agent. The SMH reporter Bossi is prone to exaggeration and occasional errors.
Nemesis
Guest
I don't understand your comment? Not what who said? Here is the story from May 2017, just prior to Ange announcing the Confed Cup Squad: Feyenoord goalkeeper Brad Jones turned down Socceroos recall http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/feyenoord-goalkeeper-brad-jones-turned-down-socceroos-recall-for-world-cup-qualifier-20170523-gwbdxi.html
Paul
Guest
Not what his said. Rather jones over ryan atm
Nemesis
Guest
Ange was ready to pick Brad Jones for the Confed Cup, but Jones wanted to be assured he would start & not be on the bench. That attitude should mean Jones will never even get a phone call from Ange. He'll have to wait for the next coach, in August 2018.
Paul
Guest
I don't think that Mooy and Rogic can be on the field together if we want a win. Plus yellow card Jedinak can't start. I still can't believe Postecoglou hasn't picked Brad Jones who is the form Aussie goalkeeper atm.
Ruudolfson
Guest
I like the formation and personal in it has a balance as well. Rogic on the right cutting in like how he does at Celtic is clever and Mooy along with a box to box player in Irvine is also good, maybe I would have Kruse for Troisi as we need forward runs from deep which would allow Mooy to pick his passes. Jurman is smart as I thought what we lacked with the ball was a left footed in our build up, he can provide that. Kruse-------Juric------Rogic Gersbach/Smith----Mooy----Irvine-----Leckie Jurman-----Sainsbury-----Milligan----
Nemesis
Guest
Good question, Middy. Just had a look at the Starting XI vs Chile. I'm struggling to work out the formation. Where was Cahill playing? In the gap between Troisi & Juric? Was Irvine playing alongside Luogo as a DM? Or higher?
Midfielder
Guest
Am I wrong or did Ange not change our system to 3 - 2 - 4 - 1 ... with the two wide in the four to drop back.. In this system the two DM's become important and its a toss up but its where your would play Mooy with either Mass or Irvine alongside him... This would allow for Rogic and Troisi to play up front... This is my formation.. ----------------------- Ryan --------------------------- ------- Milligan ---- Sainsbury ---- Spira -------- -------------- Mooy ---------- Luongo / Irvine -------------- Leckie------------ Troisi -------- Rogic -------- Gersback----- ------------------------- Juric ---------------------------
Midfielder
Guest
Great stuff go Sam
James Jackson
Guest
Against Saudi Arabia they had some good combinations, and Mooy assisted Rogic's goal too. I think their understanding will grow, and it will especially be better when Mooy is playing behind Rogic, not beside him.
The Auteur
Guest
That midfield's going to get overrun fast without any holders.
Nemesis
Guest
Off topic Breaking News FIFA has named the 10 Women Footballers nomiated for the 2017 Best Player in the World. You can see one of these players in WLeague during summer playing for Perth Glory. * Lucy Bronze * Deyna Castellanos * Pernille Harder * Sam Kerr * Carli Lloyd * Dzsenifer Marozsan * Lieke Martens * Vivianne Miedema * Wendie Renard * Jodie Taylor
Nemesis
Guest
Huge fan of Rogic. Huge fan of Mooy. Rogic was good in patches against Germany. Mooy was terrible at the Confeds Cup. Before the Chile match, we didn't know if Troisi could step up against some of the world's best midfielders. He did. He scored a delightful goal from having the tactical awareness to make space in the box & technical ability to finish when I've seen many others miss. He was voted MOTM. There's not much more a midfielder can do.
punter
Guest
Fad, no doubt about Scottish league being at best equal to A-League, but Rogic plays for Celtic, this is way above any team in the A-League though.
punter
Guest
Nemesis, I think I said 'Jedniak is better when we player better teams & we park the bus (like he did at Crystal Palace), but this is not Ange’s style' As far as national teams go, I don't dislike anyone from a club side, sorry mate, if Sainsbury signed for MV, I would still rate him be far the best defender we have & love him. I think Milligan should be one of first picked for Socceroos & he plays for MV. As for Troisi, again I said against Chile he played great, tell me one other time he has been as great in a Socceroo shirt. I rate Troisi as an A-League player, one of finest, even though he plays for a loser of a team, but stepping up a level, na, not seen it, apart from 1 game against Chile. I'm happy to be proved wrong, but for the Socceroos he is a squad player.
Kaks
Roar Guru
Troisi is a good player, but he wont win you matches. Rogic has that ability with his left peg alone.
Nemesis
Guest
"Jedniak is better when we player better teams & we park the bus" Under Ange, when has Australia ever "parked the bus". I've got all the matches on PVR, so I'll have a look. You dislike Troisi because he plays for MV and you were oblivious to his quality. Troisi played an excellent match against Chile. By far the best creative midfield performance I've seen in the National Team against high quality opposition since Bresciano.
The Fatman
Guest
for a man with a 'destroyed brain' he did some good solo albums