Rugby league in Australia is dying. Interest in the code is waning, participation is dropping, and the on-field product has become dull and predictable. At its current rate, the game has only 50 years left to live.
I was offered a schooner of this doomsday Kool-Aid last week while chatting with a mate who recently read Jared Diamond’s book Collapse – How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. In the book, Diamond seeks to understand the factors leading to the collapse of some of the world’s great civilisations.
In almost all cases, the root cause was overpopulation relative to the capacity of the environment. Put another way, once a society had grown to a point where its available resources could no longer sustain its people, that society would collapse.
While I’m not 100 per cent on board with this theory as a predictor of societal collapse, it did get me thinking about whether or not rugby league might have reached its peak. Has the game tipped past that dangerous point of inflection where its capacity to grow is outstripping the available resources? Is the game already dying?
Consider the following: there has been no growth in average crowd numbers (approx 15,000) over the last 15 years, year-on-year television ratings for rugby league have declined from this time in 2016 and the rate of junior participation in the game is going backwards.
Unhappy Gold Coast Titans fans. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Worse still, rugby league is almost completely reliant on revenue generated from broadcasters. In a rapidly evolving media market where fewer and fewer customers source content from traditional mediums (pay and free-to-air television), putting all your Steedens in one basket would seem like a particularly dangerous strategy.
This might all sound more depressing than a Dido concert, but the news isn’t all bad. Diamond also described the major factor that differentiated collapsed societies from those which survived: long-term planning.
And while I hate to agree with Paul Kent, he’s bang on the money when he says that the game of rugby league needs a plan if it hopes to survive. Those at NRL HQ need to decide what they want to game to look like, and then to come up with a long-term plan for how to get there.
Here are a few key issues that should form the basis of rugby league’s survival guide.
Game day experience
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that crowd numbers are dropping as the quality and quantity of the television coverage increases. With a dedicated NRL channel showing every game live and in HD, your couch has never looked so good.
So it’s no real surprise that most people don’t bother going to the effort and expense of attending a game when you can get the same experience by staying at home.
So what can the NRL do to change this? First, they need to fix the schedule. If they are serious about increasing crowd numbers, they need to schedule more games at times when people can actually attend them.
That means Thursday night football and the 6pm Friday night game should be replaced more family-friendly fixtures, such as Saturday afternoon games.
Another scheduling opportunity the NRL needs to take advantage of is maximising opportunities during public and school holidays. Scheduling double-headers and rivalry games during these periods would see a spike in crowd numbers, as more people are free to attend.
Secondly, the NRL needs to offer people at the game something that they can’t get by watching at home. One example is to allow kids back onto the playing surface once the game has finished, and enable them to interact with the players.
Imagine a seven-year-old Cowboys fan getting underneath a few towering bombs from Johnathan Thurston, or a young South Sydney supporter catching passes from Greg Inglis. Those are the sorts of experiences that will have kids begging parents to take them to the footy every weekend.
Another possible idea would be to allow fans to meet and mingle with former players during the game. Clubs could employ local legends to attend home games, and reticulate around the stands during the match.
Imagine taking your seat at Lottoland and all of a sudden Cliffy Lyons sits down next to you for a beer. You can’t get that sort of experience sitting on your coach at home.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Junior participation
Continued growth in junior participation is crucial for the long-term sustainability of rugby league. Not only are these kids the next generation of NRL superstars, but more importantly, they’re also the next generation of fans.
They’ll buy jerseys, go to games and watch rugby league on TV. They’ll keep the game relevant and they’re essential to its survival.
But the problem with rugby league at the junior level is that teams are based on age, not weight. This means kids as young as eight are faced with the daunting prospect of playing against opponents that are up to 20kg heavier than they are. Instituting a weight-based grading system would be the first step towards encouraging kids of all shapes and sizes to play junior rugby league.
Another measure I would introduce is to stop keeping score, at least in younger age groups. The constant focus on winning, particularly among parents and coaches, can create a very unhealthy environment for impressionable kids.
And once kids stop having fun, they start to resent the game rather than enjoy it. Before you know it, you’ve got 13 little Bernard Tomics running around out there.
And finally, we should abolish registration fees. Make it free for our kids to play the greatest game of all. I understand that there are significant costs associated with running a junior program, but these costs should be picked up by the NRL, not by struggling local clubs and families.
Diversified media strategy
The NRL cannot continue to rely on signing billion dollar broadcast rights deals to fund the game of rugby league. It’s just not sustainable. What happens if TV ratings continue to drop? What would we do if Rupert Murdoch suddenly decides that he’d rather spend his billions on AFL? How would the game possibly pay its bills without its primary source of income? It wouldn’t, which is why the game needs to diversify.
To the NRL’s credit, they’ve already identified this as a major concern and have allocated large sums of money for the development of a digital media strategy. The only problem is that they have no idea where to start.
Todd Greenberg and his cronies should look to the NFL for inspiration. Despite already dominating the traditional media market, the NFL recently piloted the live streaming of a game exclusively via Yahoo. And while the results of the experiment were lukewarm at best, they gained valuable insights moving forward.
So instead of focusing all their attention on pay TV, the NRL needs to start approaching alternative carriers. Why not have a chat to Netflix about becoming involved in live sport? Or speak to Google and Amazon about what options they might be able to provide?
Maybe Apple could supply an option to iPhone and iPad users? Or even Sony via their gaming consoles?
At worst, exploring other options may drive up the price of the next broadcast rights deal between the NRL and Foxtel. At best, the game may actually discover other ways to engage with fans through digital media and develop an alternative stream of revenue at the same time.
Greater media access
In the United States, the media is provided unprecedented access to all major sporting codes. They watch teams practice, are allowed into the locker rooms straight after the games, and get the opportunity to interview coaches and superstar players on an almost daily basis.
Best of all, the players give honest, candid answers when asked a question. They’re not afraid to show personality or individuality, and their clubs don’t regulate their responses. The players understand that each time they step in front of the camera is an opportunity for them to enhance their own personal brand. They get it.
Rugby league players? Not so much. Instead of honest answers, they respond in controlled and carefully contrived clichés. Instead of personality and individuality, they all sound the same.
(Photo: 2017 Rugby League World Cup, Scott Davis)
They see journalists as the enemy, and have no grasp of the concept that increasing their media exposure will actually help them land those coveted third party agreements. Talking to the media will make them money.
If rugby league players truly want to become partners in the game – if they want to receive a share of the game’s revenue and have their say in the way the game is governed – then there needs to be a dramatic shift in their attitude towards the media.
They need to start doing their part to promote the game.
Outlook for the future
If rugby league continues to deplete the available resources without finding a new source of revenue, then it might go the way of the Mayans. But the game isn’t dead and buried just yet. With some careful planning and forward thinking, there’s no reason it can’t survive into the future.
5th Tackle Option
Here are five quick thoughts on the action from Round 24.
1. The Titans performance on Thursday evening was a lot like John Olive’s elbow dislocation – gruesome and painful to watch.
2. Of all the clubs certain to miss the top eight this season, South Sydney are showing the most promise for 2018. Despite missing their captain and highest-paid player for the entire season, the Bunnies have actually played some pretty good footy.
They’ve remained competitive in the majority of their games and unearthed a few potential star players in the process. They will return to the finals in 2018.
3. Sometimes I’m thankful that Mal Meninga’s political career lasted under one minute. His idea of sacking Neil Henry and making Jarryd Hayne captain of the Gold Coast Titans isn’t the sort of thinking you want coming out of men in a position of power. Then again, he said it on Queenslanders Only, so nobody would have been watching anyway.
4. Much like the third umpire in cricket, the video referee was brought into rugby league to help rectify the clanger. That decision that is so obviously wrong, that to not overturn it would be to perform a disservice to the game. So then why was the James Tedesco forward pass allowed to stand?
I understand that the video referee cannot rule on such matters, but that pass from Tedesco was a borderline penalty for intentionally propelling the ball forward. Imagine if that had occurred during the grand final, and the Tigers had won the comp based on an obvious illegality?
5. Even is Manly go on to miss the finals, which is looking increasingly likely, this season should be viewed as a success. The Sea Eagles have outperformed even the most optimistic preseason prognosticator, and they’ve done so with more than a million dollars sitting on the sideline.
The fact that the Sea Eagles are even competing for a spot in the finals is a testament to the talents of recruitment guru Bob Fulton and his ability to find treasure in other people’s trash (see Uate, Akuila). It’s a shame that Bozo was never able to bring his Midas touch with him into NSW camp.
James
Guest
I think Australia should quit rugby league and just play union as it is a lot bigger on the world stage and they would win world cups with all their league talent. This would trump all football codes in Australiaas the super rugby would be bigger and better than ever.
Kerry
Guest
Going to football in England was "all about catching up with your mates". Lol. BS. Football is the most watched sport on the planet because it is the most exciting with it being a skill dominated game. Tens of millions view goals, dribbles etc. on YouTube for a reason. Skills will always win as an attraction. Pele became a star around the world because of his electrifying play...and its football that allows such play to be displayed. Ronaldinho, Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo etc do so today. Rugby League isn't popular because it's dull, especially in England. The last time anything interesting was uploaded to YouTube was a dummy made by Rangy Chase about three years ago. The sport is a collision dominated game with people running into one another, something you did as a child in the playground. This is not interesting to the masses hence few views. If you are gym monkey and can just barge into people you can qualify as a Rugby League player. How many people outside Rugby League areas watch Rugby League? Barely anyone. It's a community sport that relies on its own community. You grow up with it rather than choosing it. Cultural. Outside of towns along that strip of the M62 motorway it doesn't exist in the UK. The stop start nature of the game with that play the ball routine...play stops as the player wriggles around as he's held...get ups, back heel the ball, pass, run straight into opposing player...play stops...repeat x 300 plus times per game. This rapid fire stop start repetition is not appealing on the eye. I get dejavu feeling anytime I've ever watched it. Although afflicted with this stop start play the ball rule Rugby League in Australia is a much better product than in England. There are players in Australia who look to be creative so there isn't the rapid fire five collisions and a kick that exists in England. For Rugby League to survive it needs to change as a sport in my opinion ...my suggestion is getting rid of play the ball and come up with something that doesn't make it so stop start. Make it more open, expansive, skill based as opposed to rapid fire straight up running into a wall. The only time casual sport observers showed any interest in Rugby League in the last three years was that thuggish punch in the Grand final...the sport itself doesn't lend itself to excitement or must see 'WOW' moments hence the lack of views on tv or online. Its a restrictive sport hence it doesn't produce stars..certainly in England. Rugby Union is even worse as all creativity has been suffocated out of what is now a brute force dominated game...a Jonah Lomu wouldn't emerge today as he'd be stifled out of the game. Creativity, skills...
Parra
Guest
Soccer and AFL are better at the ground as AFL is too expansive for a good TV experience and Soccer too boring on TV hence the crowd engagement at the ground filling in the time during boring periods of the game with songs and talk etc. I know, i used to attend Watford games in the UK. It was all about catching up with your mates, drinking etc, the game was secondary. NRL might be a TV product but to improve it as a spectacle perhaps reduce the interchange to 6, make it more freeflowing like the Storm Bunnies and Broncos/Para games. Great. Get back to suburban grounds for the nostalgia, organic feel to the game and improve stadia, scheduling etc. Having played and watched all three sports i perfer RL but the impact needs to be addressed. I would argue the game needs to morph into touch rugby or some middleground.
Tingo Tango
Guest
Mike Yet ask the average person and they can not name a player in these sides. Soccer has been going to take over since I was a kid and I am in my 50's. It is a great game but if you think that it is so popular why can it not even play in its proper season
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Have to report:- You plainly exhibit the Melbourne AFL bubble mentality.Meaning you see rl through AFL eyes,.make assumptions and know few facts about the code ,except the publicly known negatives, which draws you here like a bee to honey.Which our media has no trouble in highlighting. Perhaps it has a lot to do with the fact rl fans know their code the good and bad, rather than outsiders or just publicly outed rl haters.They respond constructively yay or nay, you do the opposite,just here to push the flag evangelism discretely.Maybe we are a tad more mature, in not doing likewise on AFL threads
clipper
Guest
I do not, or have ever lived in Melbourne. Yes, quite a few AFL fans agree with me, plus fans of other codes. Not many league fans, as you would expect.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
And Clip a few are AFL fans who work in tandem with you ,who would have thought, and you are of a course a rl fan with no bias no agendas.Cough,cough. Many people here acknowledged there are problems and I have not suggested otherwise just putting out additional facts , many also note scheduling,stadiums,and playing games at 6pm are lunacy.You ignore those facts because it suits.Meaning you continue to live in a Melburnian bubble, and continue to push your obvious agenda.. Few if any of us bother to spend time on AFL threads spelling out the monetary wastage by the AFL in Brisbane and GC,nor the money grab from the likes of the ACT Gov,nor the lack of any International tests, or semi pro and pro clubs overseas,because it is is plain immature. You show your ignorance by apparently being unaware the NSWRL are introducing weight and age comps.IOW trying to arrest the drop in participation levels at certain ages.You have not acknowledged the growth of female participation in rl in this country.All you want to do, is perpetually flog your AFL bias on another code's thread. The article is a wake up call, not necessarily the reality you keep praying for.
clipper
Guest
Quite a few people agree with me - not so much when I first postulated the notion, but the number keeps growing - I know the reality hurts, but as this article shows, not everyone has their head in the sand.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
deucer Agree, the thread was a scenario if nothing is done ,then there is a slippery slide.However $1.9bn and NRL scheduling control from 2018 ,plus a new weight and age for junior rl comps,should do a hell of a lot of underpinning. England rl had soccer to compete with and continued incompetent management.They got left at the starting gate. But female rl is growing extremely well there . France ! well most with an inkling of history knows what went on there with rl and the consequences for the whole code, not just one club. It made the removal of the Force look like a Siunday school picnic. The irony of course rugby union head office officialdom ,played a huge part in both cases.One a single Oz club ,the other a whole code.
duecer
Guest
I really don't think the article was meant literally, more as an example what can happen if no, or wrong action is taken. At the height of RL in England and France, people would have scoffed if the same headline was written, but 50 years later, the game has been decimated, especially in France. I don't know if the same will happen here, but it has to be acknowledged that times, demographics and tastes change.
Sport lover
Guest
He thinks if he repeats endlessly that Sydney is an all codes city one person will eventually believe him. Moron of the highest calibre.
Sport lover
Guest
What a crock this article is. Colour me surprised The Rah published it. Rugby league has had 'will die' written about it since 1895. This author is yet another poor man's Frank Keating. (He will have to google it no doubt...) Like Frank, rugby league will outlive him as well.
Bananaman
Guest
The average crowd for the roosters this season is 15,766 rob can you explain to me how that's under 15,000?
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Clipper agrees because that is what his agenda states.ROFL.Another paid announcement by an AFL evangelist, who woulda thought. By the way how did the International Rools go a few days ago, man and his dogs attending?Tv coverage? sponsorship?Did the All Australians get involved or did they just sit back and accept blazers?Did State Govts provide grants to stage? Might I remind our mate re the NRL's situation.. 1)Parramatta's home stadium is at Parramatta ,and they have to play whilst the new stadium is built at ANZ ,sometimes at ridiculous scheduled times in a a stadium that is unpopular even for Swans/A League /Rugby league and rugby union fans. 2) Any code that has a 6pm time slot and expects people and families to attend has not a clue, and Thursday night at Homebush with the traffic congestion on a mid week night lines on another planet. 3)The Tigers/Dogs/Souths have ATM ANZ stadium as their home,eyt all are playing like dogs' breakfast and the fans have responded accordingly. 4)AS far as the drop in participation is concerned yes there is problem at teen level.So we now have the NSWRL introduce 21 weright and age competitions across Sydney to arrest the decline and increase participation.And thereby give those thin kids who went to AFL a chance. And in true Clip fashion you ignore the huge growth in female participation. 5) The grassroots has been neglected and the code will nearly double expenditure, thus your mob won't be getting a clear highway from now on. Judging by the comments of the players after the RLPA meeting you will be displeased to know Clip the rLWC has very little chance of being boycotted.especially after all the money secured by sponsorship,govt grants and stadium arrangements.Oh and the millions of dollars ch7 (the nice AFL station) has provided to show the tournament. And of course the 25m pounds the English Govt has provided to stage the 2021 tournament. You going to the 2025 one in USA/Canada? I understand your unease by your continued presence here with the usual insecure snipes as sufficient evidence. And of course you express ignorance, because if the NRL players en masse boycotted the tournament worst case scenario, players involved from either local Oz rl comps and overseas rl comps would fill the spots. That has been pointed out, by people in the know. It won't happen, simple because the players and the NRL are not that far away from a solution.They can handle the salary cap, it's the personal; issues that need sorting out.In fact a couple of NRL players stated that would be the last thing any rl would want to push. Do yourself a favour express concern in an AFL thread about the money expended in Qld in the tens of millions for Lions and Suns with hardly satisfying results.And the Tv ratings.That you still have no por and semi pro teams overseas after 100 years plus, I repeat you spend more time bagging rl,than spending constructive time on AFL threads.Taking you seriously is living in a bubble. If you believe your last para was amusing ,have to advise immature would be more appropriate.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
I'm aware of the figures,so missing nothing,The figures are what they are and the points I made that should have pushed those figures far higher are as valid now as they were 15 years ago. I have stated the figures are fairly static when population growth taken into account and all the goodies thrown in,and when you take into account the time friendly schedules that is near to the point. So in your book the TV ratings are high!.Channel 10 indeed would be delighted as you say LOL.
clipper
Guest
Yes, agree - a great, reality based article. What on earth would happen if the players did go on strike for the WC, as they're threatening - half the countries wouldn't have a team!
clipper
Guest
I think the point you're missing by your continued side stepping replies, is that 91k is a big increase over 50k. You have kept saying over and over that there has been no growth in the Swans TV audience, but yet when faced with the facts of a large increase the goal posts get changed by saying the ratings are still low and presume they would be low no matter what the figure was in your view.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Of course you didn't mention how long they've been here.Because it's the reality, something you like to dodge when one analyses poor TV ratings for the Swan. You just got a do0se of Tv ratings reality. Yep I'm calling it poor(and i'm hardly alone) You still love rl ,judging by the amount of time you spend here in conaprsion to AFL threads. Yes its's poor TV ratings for a game that has been here for the length of time I stated(again relevant) the amount of dollars expended by the code, the assistance of a SL warmth amount of media publicity,the number of times the club has either been in finals or won a "flag" plus the amount of time evangelists spend on rl threads to push their barrow. Ch10 LOL ( in their current financial state )would be thrilled to get a truckload of viewers. Quite the contrary fan boy,I'm extremely happy to defend rl,as I was brought up on two nother codes and find this code given a little money to throw around, and some smart decisions and getting their new grounds built (such as Parra),will make your rl ignorance even more illuminating.You man some of the most inane comments about rl ,I have read on threads .I defend rl against people who either have not a clue or are here driven by agendas.Take your pick. FYI a decision has just been made by the NSWRL to have a 21 weight and age competition,so that the big guys you flag wavers always bag rl about playing smaller guys will not happen. You sir show your uneasiness ,as you only appear any tine there is an anti rl negative opportunity to show your wares.It sticks out like dogs appendages.
Redondo
Guest
Too late for informed consent - there are already generations of league players affected by concussion. Chances are a court would find they were not properly protected by their clubs and the clubs' medical staff. A class action will likely wipe out the sport well before 50 years. To his credit Peter Fitzsimmons has tried hard to raise awareness of the problem. But in the process he has also increased parental concerns about letting kids play league (and rugby). What's really bizarre is how many comments here want the violence put back into league.
Fix the scrums
Guest
Just try it sometime agent11. Press pause on the Foxtel remote and count the crowd. Or are you scared what you might find. There is a crowd crisis and something needs to be done.