The Socceroos’ clash with Japan tonight will have a big say in whether Australia qualifies for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. This is the The Roar’s full guide to what implications each result will have on the Aussies’ chances.
Current situation
We’re currently in the third round of the Asian Football Confederation’s (AFC) Preliminary Competition, which began in August 2016.
The 12 nations that progressed from the second round were split into two groups of six, with Australia sorted into Group B. Below is Group B’s current standings.
| Position | Country | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | +/- | Points |
| 1st | Japan | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 17 |
| 2nd | Saudi Arabia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +6 | 16 |
| 3rd | Australia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 16 |
| 4th | UAE | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 5th | Iraq | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 5 |
| 6th | Thailand | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
The top two teams in each group will progress automatically to the World Cup.
The third-placed teams in each group face each other in a two-leg playoff, with the winner of that fixture playing the fourth-ranked team from CONCACAF (North and Central America) for the last spot in the World Cup.
Australia is currently in third, but level with second-placed Saudia Arabia on both points and goal difference following their shock loss to the UAE last night.
Qualification Scenarios
Tonight’s clash against first-placed Japan has huge implications for the whole group. Here’s what the fallout of each result will be.
Australia wins
If the Socceroos win tonight, they automatically qualify for the World Cup.
Even if they were to suffer a shock loss to Thailand in their last group match, Japan and Saudia Arabia play their last game against each other, meaning only one would be able to surpass Australia’s points total of 19.
Draw
In the event of a draw, the Socceroos would at the very least finish third, pitting them against South Korea or Uzbekistan from Group A in the third-placed playoff.
However, all the Socceroos would need to do is defeat winless Thailand at AAMI Park in Melbourne on September 5 to finish in the top two and automatically qualify.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
If they were to draw with Thailand however – which they did in Bangkok earlier – they would require either Japan to defeat or draw with Saudia Arabia or for the Saudis crush Japan and put their goal difference below ours.
A boilover from Thailand, however, would mean Australia would require a Japanese victory over Saudi Arabia to avoid a third-placed playoff.
Australia loses
Things get a lot dicier for the Socceroos if Japan emerge as victors from tonight’s game. They’d then require a win against Thailand and a draw between Japan and Saudi Arabia to sneak into the top two.
A win over Thailand coupled with a Japan win will also get the Socceroos through, a draw with Thailand coupled with a Japan win, or a loss to Thailand coupled with an enormous Japanese victory will still benefit Australia.
Two losses for Australia could see them eliminated altogether, although it would require the UAE to absolutely demolish Iraq in their last game.
What happens if we finish third?
If the Socceroos aren’t able to secure a top-two finish in Group B, they’ll have to play a two-leg fixture against’s Group A’s third-placed team – most likely South Korea.
While Uzbekistan are currently in third, they have a much easier run home than second-placed South Korea. Fourth-placed Syria are unlikely to overtake either side, while first-placed Iran are guaranteed top spot.
If Australia were to progress past that stage, they’d have to play another two-leg playoff to qualify – this one against the fourth-placed North and Central American side.
The CONCACAF fifth round has only just passed the halfway point, although at this stage it looks as if the Socceroos could be facing off against the USA or Panama for a World Cup spot.
Midfielder
Guest
Caltex I agree fully we have had our differences but equally have never doubted you as wanting the best for Football in Australia. One thing we have always agreed on is the non Football folk on this site. On the articles I have sent in maybe 4 or 5 articles two maybe three on the second tier competition and even offered to write a weekly summary of what was coming up and posted maybe 140 posts of live matches on one of Mikes sites. http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/05/15/missing-league-try-watching-local-club I confess to not being the best writer in the world and many things i sent in had to be correct. However its with some pride most articles published on the day they were published where the most read on the Football tab. The topics as you would be aware often upset some folk at times but they were very Football matters at the time. The then editors understood that. The article I posted as about whats happening today in FFA management IMO the most discussed topic about Football on forums and across social media. That we keep putting up endless EPL fans topics recently tells me the editorial staff today are not a patch on Patrick and Tristan and that is very sad.
Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
Mid - we certainly have had our differences of opinions in the past and they have been very heated discussions at times. However, we are both passionate football followers and both like to discuss football issues with real fellow passionate football lovers of our game. It really irks me, when this sort of thing occurs. Perhaps you may get better treatment if you sign up as a rookie or something or whatever it is they require. Maybe this is the problem, when you submit an article----this new ROAR team of administrators have failed to recognise you, as being a long time, regular football contributor.
Midfielder
Guest
Thanks Caltex Roughly 12 months ago, Tristan left and he was an editor and roughly 3 to 4 months ago the senior editor left the Roar. Both Patrick former senior editor and Tristan had Football knowledge and where prepared to correct grammatical errors. Their replacements as far as I can see do not share either the same knowledge or work ethic to work on submitted articles. I am aware of at least two other people who have sent in stuff that has not been put up. Also I think a tad over 12 months ago the Roar was sold to new owners and thus is a sub of another media company whereas before the owners worked on the site as well, no idea if they still do... but alas with new owners and new editors the Football coverage IMO is well down in quality and quantity than what it was before.
Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
Holly and Nemesis Midfielder (a passionate football follower), writes a good article with plenty to discuss and can't get published on the football tab. Yet a writer (a passionate AFL follower) with no interest in Football as shown by his profile has sneaked one in on the football tab with monumental errors... go figure?
Nemesis
Guest
As Holly has pointed out, the scenarios mentioned "should Japan beat Australia" are incorrect. Given the article is purely focused on the alternative scenarios for qualification, such errors are inexcusable.
Holly
Guest
"Australia loses ... if Japan emerge as victors from tonight’s game – regardless of the result against Thailand, Australia can’t finish in the top two if Japan don’t defeat Saudi Arabia in their last game." That is incorrect - if Australia lose to Japan tonight, then beat Thailand and Japan and Saudi draw then Australia qualify in 2nd place. Even if Saudis beat Japan and we beat Thailand we could still finish second depending on the margin of victory for each.