Whose dawn is more false: two halves of perfect rugby against the best in the world that ended in two losses, or five wins with 35 points a game against uninterested foes?
Maybe both the Wallabies and Springboks are deluded. Maybe one or the other is on the rise, or perhaps both are better than 2016 suggested.
Both have inherent weaknesses. Both have several stars.
The Boklings are small in the back three and at least one wing, Raymond ‘The Matador’ Rhule, is afraid of tackling. The Wallabies have a fragile tight five, which is weak at scrum time, and one hooker cannot scrum while another who cannot throw.
Kootchie Koo’s Boklings do seem, at least, to know what they want to do: use their superior fitness to take their foe out to deep waters, and then drown them in late scoring.
The two dozen tries scored by South Africa in 2017 have been mostly from quick passing and straight lines; not mauls. The loose trios should be equally fast, but the Boks are winning more turnovers.
Neither team has a particularly good flyhalf. RAF bomber pilot Bernard Foley is a pole dancer, and Elton Beltin’ Jantjies is more moody than Joe.
The Wallabies do have a world class nine, while the Boklings have a few journeymen clearing from the base.
But the real problem for Cheika’s men may be speed; the Boklings have too much of it, and the Aussies are a little slow nowadays.
Lineouts will be intriguing; but in all likelihood, the scrum battle will be ugly for the home team in Perth.
There are a few mismatches possible: Will Genia would probably beat Ross Cronje by ten metres in a twenty-metre race, Courtnall Skosan could probably win a footrace with Dan Haylett-Petty or Israel Folau running backwards, Folau in the air against any Saffa back, big Eben Etzebeth and little Michael Hooper deal very differently with the referee, ‘Beast’ Mtawarira has 90 caps’ worth of learning to scrum tricky, and Ned Hanigan will probably not enjoy tackling Jean-Luc du Preez.
This might be the pivotal match in the Rugby Championship this season. Win, and the Boks will probably stay alive until the October 7 Test at Newlands against the mighty All Blacks. Lose, and it’s another boring tournament among the also-rans.
It’s always darkest before the dawn, but whose dawn is false?
DavSA
Guest
Actually I was referring to SA domestic rugby Tman . Maybe NV has another spin but whatever ... Phew take a break . If you as a New Zealander are threatened by this development then my answer is ....you should be.
Taylorman
Guest
Exciting rugby is new to the competition then? How...quaint?
DavSA
Guest
Hi NV , you have answered a lot for me . Cheers
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Hello DavSA No doubt this first season will be hard on them, but there are a few things that will help them later on. During the November Test window, all Pro14 teams will lose their Test players for 4-5 weeks. Same same during the Six Nations. Right now it is Cheetahs that misses Test players, so things will even out a bit as the season moves on. In December and January, there are almost no Pro14 played, hence they all play in the European Cups then. These two months will probably be an excellent opportunity to rest and recruit players and give them a fair chance to gel before the business starts again. Kings played the champions Scarlets, Cheetahs played one of the top teams. Both away. There are weaker teams in the Pro14. So it is only a matter of time before they will start winning games. On the downside, sad to see that the crowds in Wales are far from capacity (they fill up on local derby days though). But on the other hand, the Irish teams had great crowd numbers (and atmosphere). Like Harry says, the games against Leinster and Munster will probably be very well attended both home and away. We shall get the first taste next week when Cheetahs plays away against Munster. And finally. Have been reading a lot of comments and columns from the NH this morning, and even though both Kings and Cheetahs got schooled this weekend, the overall reception is very good. They get props for playing exciting rugby and bringing something new to the competition.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Brilliant first weekend of the Aviva, and the last game in a few hours should be a cracker if the weather holds. Leicester versus Bath. The backs on the pitch alone include Watson, Joseph, Rokudoguni, Ford, Youngs, Toomua, May, Veainu, and someone by the name of Manu Tuilagi.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Brits in particular is one of the most popular players in the Aviva Prem. As a bloke as much as his play. Won man of the match in the Saracens rout yesterday.
DavSA
Guest
Now that the first round in the pro 14 is done A few casual observations. 1. It is going to be a very long campaign for the 2 SA sides , particularly the Kings who lost a bunch of players , mostly their best ones at the end of Superugby. 2. Neither of these teams can simultaneously carry a Currie cup side . This will have to be looked at next year . 3. SARU together with the other SA teams need to come to the assistance of them , particularly the Kings . I am talking loan players as an emergency stop gap. 4. It's impressive how quickly this tournament which has been historically largely ignored by rugby fans in SA has already become part of the daily landscape. Even Superbru is running a spread. 5 . It has injected much needed variety and interest into what had become a stale and static rugby calendar.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Saracens put on an awesome show yesterday and Schalk Brits had a great day at the office. As said before in this comment thread, how great would it not be to see Saracens and Crusaders play each other under fair conditions? Overall was the opening round of Aviva Premiership very entertaining with lots of attacking rugby. The score lines from the first five games were very Kiwiesque: 35-8, 28-21, 55-24, 50-35, and 39-29. That so many Saffas plays for other Pro14 teams will most likely help boost interest and viewing numbers in SA. Read in The Times that both Lions and Sharks have been putting more pressure on SARU that they want to go north ASAP. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/sport/two-more-south-african-franchises-look-to-europe-qh7ww99pp Also interesting to see that more and more questions start to pop up about an SA inclusion in 6N. Just a few months ago it was not even a topic for speculation, now it is. Still looks highly unlikely to happen in the next couple of years, hence if that would happen, SA would probably be taken out from B&I Lions schedule, and with SA hosting the next tour, no-one wants to mess with that.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Rieko Ioane is in the picture, but not a standout. He only played one Test against the Lions, and that is probably not good enough. But the season is not over yet, so he can still impress the judges.
Steven Benjamin
Guest
~ Rieko Ioane is a standout for POTY
Harry Jones
Expert
You can watch these Pro14 games as if they are weird derbies! So many Saffas! Watching the Saracens with Koch, Rhodes, Brits, Burger, etc. is not a bad 80:00.
DavSA
Guest
Well first game up and a sell out crowd . Suddenly on Supersport we are seeing all those Pro league games . Astonishing when you hear a name like Jaco Taute bandied about ....heck I had so forgotten about him . ...bring this on .....and the standard looks high . Think Cheetahs and Kings for a while are going to struggle.
Harry Jones
Expert
I think there will be bigger crowds in Bloemfontein to see Munster or Ulster play than, for instance, Rebels or Force...
Harry Jones
Expert
I thought Marcell was the best bloke on the pitch Always been a fan Cheetahs played like Cheetahs Entertaining but not winning rugby
Harry Jones
Expert
It's a False Dawn!!! So it's false consistency
FunBus
Roar Rookie
NZ will win both with something to spare - and I'll be cheering for the Boks.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Yep; very fair summing up T-man. I think part of the problem is that people often confuse best player of the YEAR with best player in the world. I think, at the moment, virtually all the candidates for best player in the world are ABs as they've done it consistently over a number of seasons. As you say, though, a number of them have had injuries or been slightly off the boil recently.
It hurts to seesuch quality South African players in European teams. I think it will takemorethan a season for Cheetahs and Kings to stake a claim in the Pro 14, they need better players, and only revenue and time will change that
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Yep, especially the first yellow card hurt them, I think Ulster scored 19 points during that 10 minute period. They will adapt to NH refereeing, and it would be a big ask to expect them getting that right from the first game. Let's not forget that Cheetahs have a lot of injuries at the moment also, that was far from their strongest side IMHO. But overall bb, it was not a bad game to watch, or what do you think? What did you think about Saffas in Ulster? I thought Marcell Coetzee played really well. Will be very interesting to see how many will turn up for Cheetahs home debut in round 3. Will it be a bigger or smaller crowd compared to SR?
I did, the Cheetahs gave away two very soft yellowcards, it basically cost them 26 points and lost them the game. They will need to adapt the NH refereeing otherwise it will be a long season, their scrum looked very good, their line outs functioned very well, although they made meters with ball from the top their mauls weren't very successful. Their backline may be fast but very weak, Ulster made extra meters at will in the tackle.