After 23 rounds of the most thrilling AFL home-and-away season in yonks, this year’s finals series is shaping up as a ripper.
The majority of footy scribes are tipping Adelaide to win the flag. Of course, many of those same tipsters had the Western Bulldogs going back-to-back at the start of the year, and they couldn’t even sneak into the finals.
Interestingly, the Crows have come off the boil, with two losses on the trot, and are no longer favourites for the flag, despite finishing first on the ladder.
What’s fascinating about the Doggies’ performance last year is how they produced a purple patch of footy at just the right time, and benefited enormously by having a week off before the finals. Coming from seventh to win the flag has never happened before. But maybe, just maybe, something similar could happen again.
This year it could be the team who finished in sixth spot at the end of the home-and-away season who take the flag: the rampaging Sydney Swans.
Let me say up front that I’m not a big fan of the controversial one-week break for all teams before the start of the finals. Not only does it leave footy-mad fans across the country with no AFL for an entire weekend prior to the finals, it takes away a significant advantage for the teams finishing in the top four.
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But Sydney, thanks to this controversial fixturing, look more dangerous than ever. They have a home final in the first week at the SCG, where they play extremely well, and their fanatical supporters can get right behind them.
What’s more, they’ve been playing elimination football pretty much since April 29, when they were 0-6. They’ve lost two games since then, both extremely close contests, to their bogey team Hawthorn and the master coach Alastair Clarkson.
But with Hawthorn gone, there’s no one left who has any sort of psychological advantage over Sydney.
Injury-wise they don’t seem to have too many worries either, which is in complete contrast to the start of the year. If anything, the problem for John Longmire and his coaching staff is trying to fit everyone in.
First up though, the Swans will need to get the job done against Essendon.
At various stages this year, the Bombers have looked as good as anyone. They can play an exciting brand of aggressive, running footy that can hurt you if they get on the outside, they’ve got some legitimate superstars, plus they also seem to line up very well against the Swans.
The last encounter between these two saw Sydney trailing by 19 points with less than five minutes remaining. However, the Swans kicked four unanswered goals to pinch the Round 14 contest by one point, after Gary Rohan marked in the dying seconds and then goaled after the siren.
AAP Image/David Moir
The punters have Sydney the shortest price of any team playing in the first week of the finals, at around $1.20, and you’d think they’d find a way to get over the line against the Bombers given the imperious form they’re in as a group.
Should Sydney beat Essendon, they then play the loser of Richmond vs Geelong, both of whom they’ve beaten recently. It’ll be at the MCG or Skilled, and they’ve won on both these grounds this year as well.
Of the remaining teams, they’ve beaten Adelaide (in Adelaide) and cross-town rivals Greater Western Sydney, neither of whom are in sparkling form.
The only team in the eight the Swans haven’t beaten this year is Port Adelaide, and that was way back in Round 1, when Sydney was missing a host of players and introduced a bunch of talented first-gamers, many of whom have gone on to blossom as the season has unfolded.
If the stars align and Sydney should win the grand final in 2017, it would mean an incredible run of 16 wins out of a possible 18.
There’s a long long way to go, but Sydney winning the flag is not as crazy as it sounds. In some ways it would be a bigger fairytale than the Doggies winning last year.
Birdman
Guest
Respectfully, no team was likely to sink with the best player in the league on its list delivered courtesy of COLA. Until the Franklin deal is finished the Swans are artificially ahead of the curve.
Angela
Guest
Nice Hyena COLA has gone and many predicted that once that happened, plus salary cap adjustments, the Swans would sink because 'all their favours had been removed'. Well bad luck, they didn't sink and, thanks to great picks, great coaching, superb management, clever succession plans, great club culture they are proving that all that mean mouthing from the south is nothing more than a pathetic kind of two-year-old sookie jealousy. I really hope the GF is between two non-Victorian teams. You really are a sad bunch down there.
Mark
Guest
Dogs will make finals, Sydney won't. Remember those predictions?
Mark
Guest
How many teams have their only loss at home for the year to a team that started 0-6? Just one. You can guess who it is.
Mark
Guest
Boring Hawks fan. Hush salty child. Enjoy Bali.
Mark
Guest
Remember when you said Sydney wouldn't make finals and Footscray would?
Hyena
Guest
Funny how Melbourne only complained about COLA when Sydney started winning.... Fact is Sydney is more expensive to live in than any other city in Australia. Fact is on a cost of living basis Swans players take a pay cut to play for this team. You complain about the Academy benefits, but only now when the Swans get Heeney, and then Mills. But you don't complain about the 10's of millions spent by the Swans growing a sport in a non-AFL state for all the years before that. You complain about Buddy and Tippett, but your teams management didn't do anything to try and win these players. The Swans management made business decisions and took risks. They always have targeted a top line talent in the forward line. Capper, Lockett, Hall, nothing has changed. You come across as a small and petty minded person who can't see the big picture and is complaining because his club sucks and the Swans are competitive. The reason they are competitive is they play within the rules, invest in local talent and build a good brand encouraging growth, development and teamwork.
Philby
Guest
Don't get me wrong - Sydney are a great team, and perhaps the most 'complete' of all the teams in the finals. But...they have had a really tough year, playing catch-up the whole time after starting 0-6. I know there's a week's rest now, but the mental and physical exertion may take its toll. And, they have played 16 consecutive good games (including the 2 narrow losses), so they are due for an off day.
Philby
Guest
Wow, from a 'pies fan - now that's impressive! Thanks!
Philby
Guest
Yeah, ditto the chill thing, Glenn.
Lance Skelton
Guest
Really? Heeney and Mills came through the Sydney Swans Academy. To get Buddy, the Swans needed to structure a 9 year deal which takes a lot of guts from a football club. I think the COLA issue is overblown and not enough credit goes to the recruiting department, and the administrators in general to keep the Swans right up there with the best teams in the AFL. To make the finals this year has been a pretty fair effort. Let's see where they end up.
I ate pies
Guest
COLA, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Lance Franklin, Kurt Tippett etc etc. Your definition of a fairy tale is wrong.
Angela
Guest
Everything you say may well be correct Glenn but as a Sydney dweller I can tell you the Swans are held in high esteem in the harbour city, even by people who follow no football code, NRL followers and Rugby followers. Probably not soccer as they are in their own little bubble. It is not just because of their recent record but because it is such a well-run, no-evil-rumour club. Why you should get so hot under the collar about that I'm not too sure. Most members know the Swans originated in South Melbourne - they had to come from somewhere, NSW, being a non-AFL state at the time. At the games, I sit next to a couple who arrived from Melbourne to live in Sydney about the time the Swans arrived. They have been members since then and recall watching matches where it was lucky to get 4000 people to attend. And watching loss after loss. There are quite a few members like them from Sydney who have followed the Swans since those difficult days. Again, I'm not sure why you have the need to badmouth the Swan's Sydney members in the way that you do. Thanks to the Swans, AFL has gone ahead in leaps and bounds here. And, I'm afraid I can't see anything negative about that. Given the number of Victorian teams, the Swans have probably done better in Sydney (surviving the tough period) than if the team had stayed in Melbourne. And even if they go under to Essendon the membership will continue to rise and the SCG will continue to attract big crowds when they are playing as evidence of the first six games this season that they lost. As someone else here suggested - chill, mate, chill
Bloods
Guest
Chill out Glenn, seems like we support the same team which is pretty cool as they are going well :-) Its been a while since the SYDNEY swans were a melbourne team Go swans
Glenn
Guest
Good grief, who is this "we" that you speak of? And could you be more condescending. Are we supposed to be grateful that you appreciate us? If you understood the history, you would realise that there are thousands of Victorian supporters that have been supporting the Swans for decades prior to your even knowing the Club existed. It isn't Sydney or ex South Melbourne, it is the Swans and the Red and White. Unfortunately I still haven't come across a Sydney AFL fan whose opinion about the game I would take seriously and we know that if the Swans have a down season, the amount of people turning up in Sydney will slow to trickle, so give us a bit more credit. And finally, I never said anything about most supporters being ex South Melbourne, but the bulk of the supporters at the Melbourne finals will be Victorian Swans fans. Thankfully we still have the luxury of the GF being played at the 'G so the rusted on supporters get a chance at a seat.
Lance Skelton
Guest
Well, I think it would be a fairytale, but then maybe my definition is different to yours...'all they've been given' is tremendously vague. What exactly do you mean?
Sydneygirl
Guest
@ Glenn And I did know swans used to be South Melbourne, and we appreciate those loyal supporters. But I do take exception to the idea that most Sydney supporters are ex south Melbourne. I did try and edit my last post but it didn't work. Sorry. I do know some of the history too. Hopefully all us supporters of the red and white can look forward to a good end of the year.
Sydneygirl
Guest
Wrong again. Many are from Newcastle, western Sydney, blue mountains, south coast and Canberra, and Wagga. I know as I have met them and many are NSW born and bred.
David C
Guest
Their hot run of form is just about to peater out entering the finals. Essendon will play their final in week 1.
Brian
Guest
I understand your point but umpires favouring the home side is unfortunately not that unusual and I expect the same to somewhat repeat should the two play again in the Preliminary in Adelaide in 3 weeks