Our man Cam Rose touched on the quality of racing we saw on what was a super Saturday of performances, and while Almandin and Winx were just two of the stars, the stayer showed he’s the easily the favourite for the Melbourne Cup.
Picking a Melbourne Cup winner in September is about as slippery as a dew-covered Flemington track in early spring. But three things fell into place this week for Almandin to be the first back-to-back winner since Makybe Diva.
The first was his quite ridiculous win in the JRA Trophy (2500m). It’s acknowledged that he was given a virtual pacemaker and the class of the field was far below him – a look at the sectionals show some very dour performances. But it was a handicap, and he did carry 61kgs, giving most of the field 7kgs.
Almandin, with Damien Oliver on board, officially won the race by 2.8 lengths, but he was eased down miles before the line. He could’ve won by ten ridden out.
It was arrogant, and it was special, and a little frightening for the other 125 horses still in contention for the Melbourne Cup (well, their connections anyway). Andre Kassal, Racing Victoria Stewards form analyst tweeted the following (note G&L means Group and Listed races):
That’s quite something.
The second piece of news that will have helped Almandin, and every other runner, was the announcement that Order Of St George won’t contest the Melbourne Cup. Trainer Aidan O’Brien will instead focus him on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris.
It’s big news, and it’s disappointing. The race is certainly poorer without him – he has been one of the classiest stayers in Europe for some time. Seeing him race in the flesh and in the Cup would’ve been quite exciting both for purists, and the punters who just wanted to see something exciting.
The third is that Damien Oliver has committed to the horse after his ride. That’s a strong early agreement between the champion jockey and Team Williams, further cementing the impressive performance. Oliver, post-race, remarked:
“That was extraordinary – it’s a long time since I’ve ridden a stayer with my feet on the dashboard so far from home. He’s certainly come back better than ever. He’s carried a lot of weight today (61kg).”
It’s quite tempting to suggest grabbing the rapidly shortening odds of Almandin – he’s now deep into single figure for a race that’s not for seven weeks.
One big query will be the track – if rain affects the surface on the day, it will make a big difference to a number of the runners, including old favourite Who Shot Thebarman who would just love a bog if he could get one.
But there’s still much to play out. Humidor put in a great show in the Makybe Diva (1600m) to prove he’ll be one to beat in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m, although it’s not entirely clear if he’ll get 3200m.
Ventura Storm wasn’t given every chance to run out that race either and we don’t know what he’ll be able to do at 2000m and beyond. Bonneval was great last week.
The Japanese horses are coming and through both the form and chatting with some knowledgeable Japanese sources, Admire Deus is a better horse than Admire Rakti which says something. The problem is he’s fragile – a seven-year-old with just 22 starts. New trainer Darren Weir will be aware of his leg issues, but may have preferred more time with the horse to know exactly how to get work into him and keep him safe.
Albert, the other likely Japanese runner, is a real marathon specialist with a sprint that takes about half a race to wind up, but that might work on the 450m straight of Flemington. Still, Australian racing often demands turn of foot.
Albert has wins well beyond 3200m, at 3400m and 3600m twice. His trainer, Noriyuki Hori, is very good trainer, who has handled the likes of Maurice, Neorealism, and Duramente to name a few. If he is preparing for the Melbourne Cup, he might be focused more on the 3200m distance.
Other forgotten horses include the likes of Red Cardinal and Marmelo, who both raced in the Prix Kergorlay and have shown they’re quality horses. There’s also Gingernuts, who is still over in New Zealand and should run in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate this weekend.
Razzar
Guest
The race was dominated of Williams Team runners. If playing devils advocate. The usual pacemaker Grandukeoftuscanny, basically a 78 Bm runner, ripped along a little more than normal. That tactic over 2500 metres, really sorts out genuine stayers. And it definitely did, but was there a race inside the race, for Williams to attain a better gauge of how his lot are going? If the internationals weren't here. The leadup handicaps and Cups races, and post Melb Cup, would be very much the poorer for it.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Tell me your reasons for wanting this, I'm interested to hear more.
Kangajets
Guest
The internationals can stay home . Give Aussies back our great race .
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Thanks mate - warms the heart!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
There are a few, but not many at the top of the weights. It's an international race these days, and one of the only ones we have in Australia. That improves the race, and as a handicap, it should be an even playing field. In theory ;)
kv joef
Roar Guru
I was with you Bondy about OoSG up until the Ascot Gold Cup. I mentioned that there were 2 caveats about him coming here - for Lloyd, his two were 'travel' and 'our track condition'. travel became less an issue as Ballydoyle are sending a few others and he would be with similar faces in quarantine. The track ... well chances are it will be a G4 or worse so thats a roll of the dice anyway. My main caveat was ... the way he would be ridden. through circumstances in AscCup he got out-of-position in a good clip race. when Moore let him down, he sprinted great to get to Agent Orange, but unfortunately Ryan moved him close to that horse for a fight he lost - the horse runs well by himself - should have kept in the middle and probably would have won. That sprint showed me, ridden quietly than is his norm, he had the sprint to do a 'protectionist' - sprint to a lead within the final 300m than stay and fight if something goes with you, like Almandin did last year. The bad news was that they reverted to his normal plugathons for his last two in ireland - if he does that in the Arc well good luck let alone he will have to cope with some very proficent animals at 2400m (with lens higher ratings). i'd like to see Enable start as i have her on a similar mark to Treve as a 3yrold filly and Ulysses has really furnished into a powerhouse. So even without France's top male and female this year's Arc will be back to a championship as opposed to last years good race that was nothing special. The Everest has few slots filled by 'commoners' syndicate horses - Redzeal, She Will Reign, Fell Swoop.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Really excellent Tristan --- agree with just about the lot particularly with the "It ain’t over just yet" sub-header. Fine work.
republican
Guest
......so, are there ANY home grown gee gee's racing in the Australian by name only cup this year? Perhaps we should re brand it the KIWI CUP, since that's as close as we seem to get these days, to realising any Ozzie gallopers..........
Bondy
Guest
Order Of St George isnt really a Melbourne Cup type the Arc suits him far better .. I'll just mention this Everest race draws little interest to the core common punter, it's just a race for the filthy rich ....