The die has already been cast. No-one can say how long Michael Cheika’s tenure as coach of the Wallabies will last, but we can at least be sure that its success or failure – between now and the World Cup in 2019 – will be squarely founded on the performance of four players: captain Michael Hooper in the forwards, and the trio of Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau in the backs.
All four come from the Waratahs, the team Cheika previously coached at Super Rugby level. I have discussed Michael Hooper’s contribution to the Wallaby cause over a number of articles, Hooper is – a least for me – a bright star in the Cheika firmament.
The three backs form the ‘holy trinity’ of the Wallaby back-line, and it’s hard to conceive any of them being dropped without undergoing a crash in form so drastic that it can no longer be ignored or covered up.
Despite his superior international form at 10 last season, Quade Cooper never unseated Foley completely from the starting side. In a compromise, Foley was moved to inside centre and the two formed an awkward axis in the key playmaking roles. When the structure changed and Reece Hodge moved into the 12 position for the final Bledisloe game and the end-of-year tour, it was Cooper who lost his place.
Michael Cheika worked very hard, by all accounts, to persuade Kurtley Beale to return from the English Premiership after one season of a two-year contract. Wasps certainly wanted him to stay, that’s for sure.
Cheika’s efforts have been rewarded with some very influential performances from Beale already in this year’s Rugby Championship, which suggest he has matured considerably as both a player and as a person.
The way Beale fronted up to Sonny Bill Williams in Dunedin on defence showed a player unafraid to confront areas (both psychological and physical) where he has been lacking in the past – defensive doggedness, physical endurance in the close-quarter contests, sheer gritty all-day-long character.
The image of Beale’s pride after scoring what appeared to be a game-winning try against the All Blacks, with the red badge of total commitment to the cause smeared across the left half of his face, will live long in the memory:
(Photo by Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
Where this will leave Queensland’s Karmichael Hunt when he returns from injury is anyone’s guess. Mine is that he will not return to the starting side at number 12.
Hunt was one of the few Wallaby success stories from the June series against Fiji, Scotland and Italy and he is clearly another player with excellent on-field character. Hunt has a superior skill-set and he never quits on a play either with or without the ball, but it may still not be enough to get him a starting spot in a team where Beale is back at 12 and Israel Folau will be selected at number 15, come hell or high water.
Folau has been picked at fullback throughout Cheika’s reign, despite a hailstorm of calls for him to be moved variously to 12, to 13 and to the right wing. If Hunt has a place in the Australian run-on side, it may well have to be at number 14, where he will be in competition with Dane Haylett-Petty.
The selection of the ‘holy trinity’ can lead to the awkward exclusion of other deserving players. It may also draw Cheika towards a rugby universe in which attacking mastery and coherence is undermined by defensive fragility.
On the attacking side, there can be little doubt that the trio of Foley, Beale and Folau provide a potent mix of abilities – distribution (Foley and Beale), line-running (Beale and Folau) and finishing power (Folau).
Australia’s first try against the Pumas on the weekend (in the 28th minute) was a perfect template of what the Wallabies are trying to achieve offensively:
From a scrum starter in the midfield, Foley and Beale use the two three-man Wallaby forward pods in between the two 15 metre lines to fix the defence while they ‘ghost’ behind them as distributors-in-tandem, and this is particularly clear in the replay from behind the posts:
Here is a model illustration of what the Wallaby attack can achieve with ball in hand: Foley and Beale hopping from one forward pod to the next like bees gathering pollen, the forwards running straight or subtle ‘unders’ lines to collect the first defender on the outside of the pod and delay the drift, and Folau on the end of things once the opportunity has been created.
There surely can be no finer finisher in world rugby than Folau in one-on-one situations, whatever the number on his back!
Australia’s third try in the 53rd minute also owed much to the various combinations of the holy trinity and the same themes present in the first score.
Momentum is originally generated by the presence of Foley, Beale and Folau together in the first frame, with the in-ball to Folau gaining the hard yards. The finish again shows Beale’s instinct to preserve space for the attackers outside him in its best light. He runs the decoy line which drags the last Argentine defender in just long enough to allow Folau to finish in the corner.
The threat of the three Waratahs in conjunction with a power centre like Samu Kerevi is a set-piece dynamic which will create problems for defences across the globe for the foreseeable future:
In situations like this close to their own goal-line, it will be very hard for defences to work out whether they should rush Kerevi before he gets up a head of steam, or hold off and read the play developing between the holy trinity behind him. In this instance, Kerevi got the ball, and was only held up over the line by some desperate last-ditch defence!
The final example is also the simplest, and comes from the highlight reel in the 73rd minute.
Straight from the Argentine kick-off after Australia’s fourth try of the game, Israel Folau catches the ball and within two phases, Foley and Beale have created space for a break by Sean McMahon down the right sideline, eventually resulting in a try for replacement scrum-half Nick Phipps.
Summary
Michael Cheika is, and always has been, committed to the Waratahs. He even attempted to continue coaching the team at Super Rugby level after he had been appointed coach of the Wallabies! Cut him and he bleeds sky blue.
This is reflected in the loyalty of his selection policy, especially in the back-line decision-making positions of 10, 12 and 15. Those are the key roles in the kind of offence Cheika likes to run, and they are occupied by players he knows from his days in Sydney.
Loyalty will make it very hard for players like Karmichael Hunt to get back into the run-on side when he returns from injury, even though Hunt was the outstanding Wallaby back in June.
There is no question that the combination of Foley, Beale and Folau works perfectly in the offence the Wallabies are growing. With the passing variations and angles of running being developed in the two forward pods ahead of them by Mick Byrne and Stephen Larkham, the mix of straight lines and double distribution creates a host of problems for the defence – particularly with a finisher like Folau beyond them.
Defence is another question entirely, and there a number of signs to suggest that situations where Foley and Beale can be caught defending out wide on the same side of the field together (typically with one up front and one in the backfield) will prove difficult for them. But that is a question for another day…
Art Vandelay
Guest
Benno your comment is totally false. Foley is a distributor not a play maker which is fine in some cases but the type of 'structure' Cheika employs is much better served with QC at 10. We already have a distributor in Genia and don't have the size or ball security for your just catch the ball and make your metres approach. Quade rarely crabs when the team needs to truck the ball out of trouble but he does engage defenders, read the defensive line and put his runners between defenders to maximise metres gained. Foley relies on his runners being in the right place running the right line to achieve the same thing which becomes more difficult under fatigue. Beale can engage a defence also and it's why the Wallabies attack miraculously clicked upon his arrival. When Beale and Quade occasionally crab it's mostly due to lazy ball runners and them trying to bring players onto the ball. It's a far better outcome than Foleys predictable distribution leading to limited metres gained. How many times do we lose possession because our attack is put under so much pressure. Without Pocock at 7 it compounds the issue. Cheika's public statement of wanting to play running rugby contradicts his selections. He's not stupid but has selfish reasons for locking these 2 in as C and VC.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Nice essay Fin - let's hope your optimism comes to pass...
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
How about a Best of Nick B. A series of links that are still valid to the current setup. I confess, I have not read them all, that would just be weird.
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, I know how much you value the contribution made by the Pacific Islands towards rugby so I thought you would enjoy this article. The sight of the Fijian Drua absolutely cutting the Perth Spirit to shreds in front of a wonderful crowd in Suva in this weekend's NRC game warmed the heart. The home side had it all. Pace, offloads, long-range tries and second-rowers running perfect lines onto pop passes. The Fijians were physical, intelligent and well organised. This remember, is a country that has lost its players to all corners of the world. Famously on one weekend last November five teams named Fijian wings in their 23-man squads and only one was Fiji. The other parties were England, France, Australia and New Zealand. So the depth is astonishing. For some of the Drua's tries it looked as if the Perth side - the reigning NRC champions who are replete with Super Rugby players - were on the verge of applause, because they had fired plenty of shots themselves. The only conclusion that could be made is that a disgrace in rugby's history - and it is a disgrace - might be about to end. Fiji is moving towards a professional team. It is banging on the door of Super Rugby when the competition is reconfigured again in 2020. That is the beauty of the Drua's entry into the NRC this year. It has started something that will be hard to stop. Already momentum had been built by Fiji's successful staging of Super Rugby games between the Chiefs and Crusaders over the past two seasons, but the Drua are something else. Seeing them play is a reminder of why we watch the game: it's not just the skills and rugby intellect of the players, it's the sense that they are in it for something bigger than themselves. I still have my fears. Even though World Rugby is behind this project, what is to stop a French billionaire from raiding the Drua before they can take their place in a professional competition? Cruelly, the NRC might actually serve as a shop window for Europe's clubs. I suppose, too, that I have read enough scare stories about governance issues in the islands to cause some anxiety. Certainly the treatment of former Fiji Sevens coach Ben Ryan after he guided the side to Olympic gold was disappointing. But hold on, were the Chiefs v Crusaders games not well-staged and run events? They were. In particular the game in May this year was one of the highlights of the regular season. So let us judge by what we are seeing. And what we are seeing is this: a team that has just entered the NRC is already at the top of the ladder after four games. The Drua's points differential is +65. The next best is +13. They are not attempting to defend their way to the championship. It's not just ad hoc brilliance either. Look at the discipline and depth the backline keeps for their first-phase moves. Of course the hard ground in Suva helped their natural game against the Spirit but the structure is there. Indeed, when the national team beat Scotland in June, the ground was heavy. It is true the Scots were without some of their big guns but they had beaten the Wallabies the week before. If there was a final reason to get behind the Fijians as they push towards Super Rugby, just look at who scored Perth Spirit's solitary try in Suva. It was Isi Naisarani, a Fijian back-rower who will probably play for the Wallabies at the next World Cup. Fiji has done enough for other countries. Now it's time they gave back.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
In the NH, Liam Williams, George North (at his best), Stuart Hogg (although NZ did not see the best of him either) and Anthony Watson.
Fin
Guest
Nick Who do you think the best broken field runners in the game are? I reckon Beale, Damian McKenzie, and Beauden Barrett are hard to top when it comes to possessing the ability to avoid a scattered defence.
Fionn
Guest
Poor selections.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
That's a nice idea for the NRC Fin - it would broaden and deepen its appeal. Beginning to wonder whether SANZAAR has outlived its usefulness. Great game of rugby between Cheetahs and 'young Leinster' last night, will only encourage SA participation up North...
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Sounds like a good idea for an article in the off-season Fin - after EOYT!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
A good question is "what has happened to Marland Yarde?" He was superb on the 2014 tour of NZ and you could hear a gasp of excitement every time he got the ball - looked like a player for England for years to come... but he has not come on at all, even under Eddie Jones. Prob ranks no higher than fourth among current England wings.
Fin
Guest
Nick, Some more thoughts on the direction Australian rugby should take. Colin Smith, managing director of firm Global Media & Sports, has been involved in sports media rights for 17 years and has advised the ARU, RUPA and New Zealand Rugby Union for over a decade. Smith warned the ARU in 2009 and 2013 about the challenges of Super Rugby's model and made it clear the game's stakeholders needed to stand up for what was in Australia's best interest in order for the game to survive. "The report highlighted then that if you went ahead with the new Super Rugby structure it was going to kill the clubs and it was going to kill the ARU. Even though they got more in their media rights deal than we anticipated, it has actually killed them. Asked for a solution to save Australian rugby, Smith said there was merit in breaking free from SANZAAR once the new broadcast deal expired in 2020 and going it alone. "We should be upgrading the NRC and make it our premier competition and maybe invite the Japanese and the Pacific Islanders to play in it," Smith said. "One of the Sydney teams becomes the Waratahs, one of the teams in Brisbane becomes the Reds, we create two great brands and you actually have an Australia-wide competition. That's the answer to Australian rugby. "If we announce that, I'll have a real wager with you that New Zealand will want to re-think [their objection to a trans-Tasman competition]." As for Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest's new Indo Pacific Rugby Championship, Smith is not convinced it can be successful. "That competition is not going to work either because of the very things that we've talked about before [in the report]," Smith said. "I'd love it to work. Having countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong; they don't have a professional rugby community. The thing that drives rugby is domestic rivalries and what they did out of the new competition is reduce rivalries. "Over time it's going to be seen as a second-rate tournament. That's my concern."
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, There seems to be a fair bit of chat about the wallabies inability to win breakdown turnovers. This is something that you said would drop off this year with the absence of Pocock. I get the impression that there is a general misunderstanding of the skills required at the breakdown, as some commentators seem to think that the issue can be rectified if the team were 'upskilled' in this area. I don't believe its as simple as that. Its more of a specialised skill that takes years to hone - knowing when to attack the ball, slow it down, or avoid the collision zone altogether. Also being strong over the ball and taking a fearless attitude knowing that the cleaners are out to destroy you. Nick, it would be great to write an article one day explaining why the effectiveness of Pocock cannot be replaced simply by giving the other 14 players extra defensive breakdown training.
Fox
Roar Guru
Yeah Ashton was very good but it might surprise you but Iike Marland Yarde at his best - I know he has defensive issues but as a finisher I think he can be superb with blinding pace
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I think SOB's comments were quite right - esp the part when he said that the attack had by the third Test really been organized and run by Sexton and Farrell. That has been corroborated by other sources from the tour.
Who?
Guest
Well, I replied to this one, and it didn't come up?! I read both the quality sources of Rugby journalism - this one and that one! :-) What did you think of SOB's comments about the Lions' attack coaching quality..? I must admit, it was one of my concerns heading into the series. I thought the forward play would be more than strong, that the lineout would be secure (especially with Borthwick coaching, as you advised), that defence would be fast and intelligent (Farrell!), but that the questions were about point scoring, selection for attack, and game plan. I think his comments weren't meant to be rough, but they clearly show that the ABs weren't the only team who think they didn't manage to grab all their opportunities. And it shows a hunger for victory that absolutely must be applauded! For a bloke to go home thinking, "We just drew a series 1-1 and we should've won the thing!" against a team that, generally, most nations fear to the extent that the matches are lost before they step onto the field... And a bloke from a nation that's only beaten that other team once, ever, and playing in a combined team that had only avoided a series loss once in the previous 12 trips... That's the sort of mentality you want in your players.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
If they feel they need to go for a black or coloured player in that position, from what I have seen Dillyn Leyds would be a better bet than Raymond Rhule.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
The way the back three rotations work nowadays Fionn, in all honesty there isn't so much difference between 15 and 14 anyhow... I would guess if I bothered to count them, I'd find Folau defending more times in the line this year than as a back-line sweeper at full-back!
Muzzo
Guest
Not really sure what's happening with Combrinck, Nick, but I do know that he's a far better winger than what has been on display from the Bok's over the last few weeks!! Possibly it's the Quota system again, as I'm pretty sure he's not injured.
Fionn
Guest
Yeah, Nick, great point. I think that is something that is ofter overlooked. Some people (myself included in the past) have criticised some of Folau's tries as being the result of him just being in the right place at the right time). The fact is that being in the right place at the right time isn't just luck, it is a skill in itself, and comes from observation and anticipation. Folau didn't intercept McKenzie's pass because he was lucky, you could see that from the moment McKenzie got the ball Folau committed to the intercept, correctly predicting that is what McKenzie would do. That is part of the reason I want Folau on the wing and with someone like KB or Banks at fullback, because it will bring in Folau's intercept and catching high balls more, but also because it means he has the opportunity to run into space and predict where he will be able to score from, and then get passed the ball.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Finishing power represents a lot of different attributes doesn't it? Not just outright speed, but the sense of space and awareness of the goal-line, ability to break tackles and stay in play near touch, strength on your feet etc... The ability is in a combination of factors. Folau, Savea, Ben Smith and Bryan Habana have unquestionably been best in that area over the past five or six years. I cannot think of anyone from the NH in the same class - except maybe Chris Ashton at his very best.