Rugby League World Cup: The race for second place

As I write this, the fat lady is on stage, microphone in hand, waiting to belt out an absolutely stirring rendition of ‘Waltzing Matilda’ to images of Cameron Smith holding aloft the World Cup trophy in the middle of Suncorp Stadium. So there’s no point watching it, right?

Wrong. There is one key aspect of the above image that is quite unclear indeed, and that is the colour of the jerseys worn by the latest group of players to cop a deadset hiding at the hands of this almighty Australian Kangaroos side.

The Kangaroos winning the RLWC is a foregone conclusion

Will we see the all too familiar sight of players dressed in New Zealand’s black or England’s white lying dejected on the hallowed turf of Suncorp Stadium? Perhaps some Tongan red or some Samoan dark blue?

The race for second place will be by far the most fascinating aspect of this World Cup.

(Image: NRL)

England
England will definitely cause Australia the most trouble at this World Cup, and favouritism for the runners-up spot is rightfully theirs.

There’s a lot to like about this side. Wingers Ryan Hall and Jermaine McGillvary are powerful ball-runners and will be looking to get their side on the front foot at the start of their sets. They are also both prolific try-scorers, and their inclusion in the side will mean that England are dangerous in attack on both flanks.

The pack is also a big strength. Although Sean O’Loughlin is the captain, both Sam Burgess and James Graham have been in that role before. Those three will lead by example and inspire the rest of the forwards to make big charges up the middle.

There is also plenty to like about the halves and hooker. Josh Hodgson is arguably second only to Cameron Smith in terms of hookers in the NRL. Luke Gale was crowned the Super League’s man of steel this year, while Gareth Widdop is this year’s Dally M five-eighth of the year, coming in third place overall.

These are three individually brilliant players and they are a big part of why England are the only side that could trouble Australia. However, their ability to combine with one another on a level that Australia’s spine can is in question. They should dominate the rest with the team that they have, but they will probably get blown away by the Kangaroos.

But then there’s the ace. Old long-neck Wayne Bennett. If this England side make it to the final, mark my words, Uncle Wayne will have some tricks up his sleeve. I won’t say this about any other team. I don’t think they’ll win, but I can’t completely write them off – anyone who writes off a Bennett-coached side does not know rugby league.

(Image: NRL Photos/Grant Trouville)

New Zealand
Ahh, the Kiwis. On their day they are world champions. Four Nations Champions. Anzac Test winners. Ranked number one in the world. Unfortunately their day seems incredibly far away at this point.

This side has been decimated by injuries, drug-related suspensions and defections. In addition, many of the side’s most experienced players have not been playing their best in clubland, especially halfback and key man Shaun Johnson.

What I like is their youth. They will be looking to guys like Kodi Nikorima and Danny Levi off the bench to spark their attack, while the likes of Joe Tapine and big Nelson Asofa-Solomona will be tough work to handle up front, along with experienced forwards Marty Taupau, Simon Mannering and Russell Packer.

Opposition halves will also need to have eyes in the back of their head whenever cheap-shot merchant and skipper Adam Blair is on the field.

What I dislike is their inability to close out tight games, which was evident in last year’s Four Nations against Scotland. On paper they should beat the likes of Tonga and Samoa to top their group – perhaps even England if or when they meet in the finals – but they lack game management skills and composure under pressure.

If there are to be any major upsets at this World Cup, New Zealand will be on the receiving end.

(Image: NRL)

Tonga
This team couldn’t fly under the radar if Des Hasler was their coach. They were doing so well until Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita defected. The inclusion of these two giants adds a lot, including some pressure to succeed, which is something the Mate Ma’a are not used to.

Tonga are dangerous all over the park. On one side of the field they’ll have a touch of class and experience with Michael Jennings and Daniel Tupou teaming up for the first time since Jennings went to the Eels. The other side of the field is far scarier – Konrad Hurrell and Manu Vatuvei. That is just about the last centre-winger pairing that I would want to defend against.

Then there are the forwards. Aside from Fifita and Taumalolo, this pack also boasts Sika Manu, Manu Ma’u, and Sio Siua Taukeiaho, with the likes of Peni Terepo, Sam Moa and Ben Murdoch-Masila off the bench. Any side coming up against Tonga, including perhaps Australia, will be on the back foot from the opening whistle.

As an NRL fullback, Will Hopoate offers stability as custoidan, but not much in attack. Having said that, there will be less wrestle and structure in the World Cup than in the NRL, and this will suit him better – he could be a real weapon.

I don’t quite know what to make of halves Tui Lolohea and Ata Hingano, and hooker Siliva Havili. They have all played first grade, but only Lolohea could be classified as a first-grader. Havili is a textbook fringe first-grader, while Hingano is definitely a future first-grader.

Having said that, their spine is by far the best of all the minnow nations. This combined with their massive advantage in the middle and the strike they possess out wide should see them beat the tier 2 nations comfortably.

They are also capable of upsetting New Zealand and England if they catch them on an off day, although to do so they will have to bulldoze relentlessly through the middle.

(Image: NRL)

Samoa
The Samoan side is very dangerous. Similar to Tonga, the forwards will be very hard to stop. Needless to say, Tonga versus Samoa will be one of the most brutal affairs in the whole tournament.

There is a lot of experience in the side, with skipper Frank ‘The Tank’ Pritchard leading the way, joined in the back row by Josh Papalii and Leeson Ah Mau. Junior Paulo and Sam Lisone will set the platform up front, while bench forwards Herman Ese’ese, Suaia Matagi and Bunty Afoa do not mess around.

The real danger men are centres Tim Lafai and Joey Leilua. Lafai led the NRL with offloads this year, as did Leilua last year. While these two are deadset weapons in attack, they have both been known to fall asleep from time to time in defence. The teams with better halves should be able to exploit this.

Again, like Tonga, if the Samoan forwards get on a roll, they will be near impossible to stop. This should guarantee them victory against any minnow nation except Tonga.

Samoa’s weakness is the halves. Ben Roberts at seven and Joseph Paulo at six have a lot of skill and spark, but lack discipline and organisation. This will determine whether or not they can knock off England or New Zealand in a semi-final, to earn a one-way ticket to Suncorp Stadium for a flogging from the Kangaroos.

Despite the various strengths of all the above teams, I must reiterate that in terms of tactics, professionalism, discipline and game management, Australia are simply a cut above.

The only hope for the above four teams is if one or more of Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk get injured.