The Australian cricket media seems to have already decided the Ashes are ours – and maybe it’ll turn out that way. Or, maybe, it won’t.
We’re actually a very good chance to lose the Ashes, for reasons I will pull apart today and tomorrow.
The disconnect in the Australian selection panel
There are major disconnects within the Australian selection panel, and between that panel and Steve Smith.
Take Steve O’Keefe being dropped for the Bangladesh tour, on the grounds of form, in favour of Ashton Agar and Mitchell Swepson. Then O’Keefe was rushed over there for the second Test, while Swepson sat on his backside and Smith showed clear preference in the field to O’Keefe over Agar.
Then there’s Usman Khawaja. Considered crucial to the side, he was overlooked for four Tests in India, then tried for one in Bangladesh before being overlooked for the second, and is now considered a lock for the Ashes.
Hilton Cartwright, a player for the future, was given one Test in Australia, wasn’t picked on the tour of India, then picked on the tour of Bangladesh.
Shaun Marsh was picked for India because he’s ‘good in Asia’, but overlooked for Bangladesh.
Callum Ferguson and Joe Mennie were given one game to prove themselves at Test level, yet Mitch Marsh got 21.
Mitch Marsh, Glenn Maxwell and Hilton Cartwright are picked as top-six batsmen because they can bowl, only to find the captain doesn’t bowl them.
The mixed messages keep on coming. An all rounder is necessary, then he’s not, but one would still be good. A keeper has to keep and bat, only he has to keep more than bat, but if he can bat that would be good, but he has to keep – oh and be loud; but he doesn’t have to be. Spinners are good, but wouldn’t four pacemen be awesome – now let’s play three spinners. Age doesn’t matter but we’re going to drop all older players from Sheffield Shield teams, and have an ancient selection panel.
Just pick six batsmen, a keeper and four bowlers, then give them a decent chance.
But that’s too hard for his lot.
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Steve Smith’s captaincy
The reluctance to bowl part-timers, the enthusiasm for Nic Maddinson and Matthew Wade as Test players – despite poor domestic performances – publicly slapping down Khawaja, a lack of poker face on the field…
Smith isn’t an awful captain, but he’s fairly ordinary.
You can see how badly he wants to win, how much it means to him, and of course he’s a brilliant batsman, but that doesn’t always make you an ideal skipper.
Smith always seems to be playing catch up. Maybe this season will be the making of him. But if he still needs a wicketkeeper who shouts a lot to feel confident, maybe not.
No Brad Haddin
People sometimes forget the 2013-14 Ashes wasn’t all one-way traffic. Australia wobbled in their first innings in every Test (5-100, 5-257, 5-143, 5-112, 5-97) until bailed out by Brad Haddin. Every Test.
Australia has a poor record of performing when the top order doesn’t fire, so what happens if we’re five for-not-much again? Who’d rescue us? I can see Starc helping out in a few Tests (like he did in the first Test in India) – but it shouldn’t be his job.
None of the leading candidates for number six and seven this summer strike me as capable of leading a rescue mission. I hope I’m wrong, but it’s a massive weakness.
AFP PHOTO / Saeed KHAN
You never know when a key player will lose form
With fringe players the solution is easy – turf them. But when a key player goes off the boil it causes serious problems; because they’re proven champions, the selectors hang on to them.
Teams can generally carry one under-performing key player, but when it’s two things can go really badly – look at Mitchell Johnson and Mike Hussey in 2009.
Australia has been carried at home in recent years by the firm of Warner, Smith, Starc and Hazlewood, the four players guaranteed to play five Tests.
If more than one of these had a dud summer we could be in big trouble.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
Fair enough. It was close to a wobble... one of those times an innings can be quickly wrapped up and/or extended... but then Haddin stepped in and took the game away from them.
HB
Guest
One minor quibble: 5/257 is hardly a 'wobble'--in fact it's a pretty good score.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
I'm confused why the English selectors overlooked so many players who average over 40 in favour of those who average under. I know averages aren't everything but it does indicate a fair bit. Australian selectors have ignored career averages at their peril.
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
You also picked some players name adam voges(second don? lol),scott boland,and hilton cartwright "with performances on their side",how did that go?sir,you are still not understanding,your players aren't playing real cricket,they are playing cotton ull cricket on some concrete road,on those road a proper batsman should average 80,yes 80,only then he will be able to perform in different condition against quality opponent,the batting performance of australian domestic batsman are pretty much useless in my opinion unless they show some good technique which can be nurtured,sorry if i offend you sir,but the result is in front of you :D .
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
sir Why don't you check the videos of those two batting against different bowlers and tell me who has better technique?you have missed my point again,UK is very good as australia,but what about his asia form?,now here you can say the ashes is in australia,but then you will have to keep changing a spinal cord in your batting line,KP will be as good as UK in australia,he will also be good at other condition,i can guarantee that,i have been watching his batting for long time,thats my point.
Hugh G. Rektion
Guest
I'm more impressed with the 40 than the 122. It is a difficult pitch to bat on yet scoring 40 on a day when 13 wickets were taken is great.
Andy Hill
Roar Pro
Livingstone looks the next big thing. He will be in Oz for the Lions tour so don't be surprised if he is called up mid series after Ballance and Vince fail.
John Erichsen
Guest
Hang on a sec. You say that number three can not be experimented with, yet you have Patterson picked ahead of Khawaja for that spot. How is that not an experiment and a dumb one? Khawaja has test performances at home on his side, and he made 40 and 122 in the shield game. Patterson would be making his debut on the back of 14 and 0 against South Africa. Hopefully, our selectors have more sense.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Yeah, say what you want about Clarke, I always thought his on field captaincy was brilliant
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Steady on mate, I'm goanna go out on a limb and say English probably isn't this blokes 1st language. He's right about Starc bailing us out, Cummins bats well also, I think with Warner, UK and Smith in the team that runs shouldn't be a problem here in Oz. Australias problem with spin must be at the grass roots level, which is strange given we have a good record producing spinners, Lyon, Warne, McGill, May, Benaugh so then is it pitch related? Must be, does anyone that plays grade cricket on this site's tell me if there are any dry, dusty turners at that level?
Kopa shamsu
Guest
You can not experiment with number three,number 1 -4 has to be completely settled,my top four choice is 1) warner 2) renshaw 3) k patterson 4) smith 5) peter handscomb i think he has done enough to be recommended as an all condition player 6) Alex carry almost as good as nevill in keeping,but has very good batting technique,and he is very young 7) for all rounder my first choice is marcus stoinis,very good bowler and has both adaptability and hard hiting capability the rest is i guess pretty much known 8) starc 9) hazlewood 10) cummins 11)lyon ( i would love to try zampa and swepson in some stages) 12th man jason behrendorff(he is going to go down as one of the greatest bowler,if not hurt by injury anymore,you can write it down).
Johnb
Guest
Wouldn't Chris Hartley be happy about that
Don Freo
Guest
One way we could get into trouble is to get our players out of form by denying them chances to play cricket in the cricket season. Sadly, Cricket Australia has stepped in and NCN has been withdrawn from tomorrow's Shield game. The Dorff, however, will play. What is really weird is that NCN is playing on the same day at the WACA against the touring Poms. Is this some kind of handicap system so that WA doesn’t embarrass the NSW Australian players? NCN was trying to be diplomatic on the radio this afternoon but you could just hear the disappointment/frustration. Who needs a rest after only one game? I understand a bit of rotation mid to late season (sort of) but after one game? Good grief! Just let cricketers play and compete for positions. I can just imagine the Performance Indicators on the CA job descriptions for Kountouris and Howard; #1...interfere with the natural flow of a cricketer's development. You must be able to demonstrate where you have achieved this outcome.
Don Freo
Guest
Davy is a standout for captain. A reputation for volatility has no basis over the past 3 or 4 years. Mitch Marsh will captain Australia if he can translate OD batting form into FC form.
Don Freo
Guest
Isn't that the reason Mitch went home for shoulder surgery? I wondered why he wasn't bowling too and then he was under the surgeon's knife. That was a shame because Mitch's reverse swing full bowling would have been very handy. Some folk forget he bowls.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
I just had a look at some English domestic players. There's a bunch of them who average 40 and over. The back up keeper Ben Foakes averages 41 Some bloke called James Hildreth averages 43, though he's in his early 30s Nick Browne averages 44 Liam Livingstone averages 48 though he hasn't played many games Dan Lawrence averages 42 though he's only 20 Rory Burns averages 42 Sometimes I really feel they should just go off averages.
Davros
Guest
yeah isnt this day night pink rock shtip wonderful ? how can it be a test if its a lottery ?
Davros
Guest
well handscomb was going to come in any way i watched the A series against s africa and he shone like a beacon . my point about sayers is that IF he gets things his way he can do a lot of dammage ...but i have watched him with the old ball on a flat gabba track after lunch when it flattened right out ..it was excruciating as he trundled in around 122 k and khawaja took him down ....and scored 200 ...at least mennie in that situation was up for the fight and he was trying every thing and did winkle 2 wickets to get south oz in the hunt ...but there was no support ...sayers had nothing ..he has got a very good pr machine though ...and with the new rock and the wind behind him with swinging conditions he is a very good bowler . Bird is slightly quicker than both with a good outswinger sayers 128 mennie 133 bird 136 i think ..so yeah he deserves a chance . ill tell you how i know mennie can bat i watch a lot of shield live ...on the wacca in the very comeback match just before Johnson sent trott home in a straitjacket w a playeyd south oz ...Johnson was fired up and bowling heat ..serious destructiom ...mennie went in after some ordinary batting and scored back to back 50 's against a rampant johnson ...maybe thats what R Marsh was thinking when he gave mennie the nod over bird ....the bowling stats very very similar ....didnt they nail him in the press for it though ! lol
Davros
Guest
id pick warner ...never had a problem with him ...since way back when everyone was bagging him ..i dont care much about the niceties ...i think he has a bit of mongrel fight and flair ...and he can bat !
Davros
Guest
yeah im a fan of handscomb... i thought he alone of the new comers really earnt his opportunity ... i watched him in an a game ton up against south africa at a b last year ...lot to like