Hawthorn are perhaps the hardest side to get a read on for season 2018.
With a perceived ageing list and the ongoing loss of stars, most pundits expect a lowly finish for the Hawks and betting markets have ten teams more highly fancied.
However, you shouldn’t be so quick to write them off for 2018.
In 2017, Hawthorn won 10.5 games, a modest return. What’s dismissed though is the large number of serious injuries suffered in 2017, with minimal contributions from Jaeger O’Meara, Cyril Rioli, Grant Birchall, James Frawley, Paul Puopolo and Ben Stratton.
Those six players played 49 of a possible 132 games – that’s 73 games missed, an average of over 12 games per player. It’s doubtful that any team would have been competitive with such an immense loss of games from such significant players.
The Hawks’ poor start to the season, coupled with serious injuries to key players, saw the club move from aiming to contend for a flag to regenerating the playing group. The injuries proved a blessing in disguise.
[latest_videos_strip category=”afl” name=”AFL”]
Blake Hardwick, James Sicily and Ryan Burton’s statistics for the second half of the season showed that they were among the best backmen in the competition.
Tim O’Brien progressed as a genuine ruck-forward and youngsters Connor Glass, Teia Miles, Harry Morrison, Kurt Heatherley, Dallas Willsmore and James Cousins gained experience at senior level. Keen fans are confident that one or two those players will develop into genuine senior footballers.
Jack Gunston proved a highly effective defender, while Will Langford and Taylor Duryea showed they could play forward.
So, where are those injured players?
O’Meara and Puopolo played the final two games of 2017, Rioli and Frawley were ready to go by season’s end, and Stratton will be right for the start of pre-season training. As for Birchall, he is recovering from a serious knee injury and is expected to have a delayed start to pre-season.
Ever so quietly, Alastair Clarkson has overseen a transformation of his list. With the return of injured players and the development of youngsters, here’s a first pass at the best 22 for season 2018.
B: Hardwick Frawley Sicily
HB: Birchall Brand Burton
C: Smith O’meara Hartung
HF: Rioli Gunston Impey
F: Puopolo Roughead Breust
R: McEvoy Howe Mitchell
I/C: Burgoyne, Shiels, O’Brien, Stratton
Of that best 22, only 13 players remain from the 2015 premiership team two seasons ago, giving a mix of youth and experience. It also offers Clarkson real flexibility, with James Sicily, Ryan Burton, Jarman Impey, Jack Gunston, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne and Tim O’Brien capable in multiple positions.
But it’s in defence where Hawthorn look especially strong.
Sicily and Burton both mark the ball, Hardwick has a kicking efficiency among the highest in the competition, and Birchall, Sicily and Burton are high possession, rebounding defenders with exceptional kicking skills.
Frawley is an established, dependable key defender and the athletic Kaiden Brand was a big improver in 2017.
It’s an appealing back six, with real intercept and rebound ability.
Both the Bulldogs of 2016 and the Tigers of 2017 highlighted the value of high-intensity forward pressure. This has always been a feature of Clarkson’s teams and Rioli, Impey, Puopolo and Luke Breust are a quartet of small forwards the equal of any in the competition.
Supported by Roughead and the roaming Gunston, this is a seriously dangerous forward line.
Since 2015, the Hawks have experienced an unprecedented loss of players, many champions. Whether they can be adequately replaced is a key question in assessing the club’s prospects.
While it’s early days the replacements appear to be close to the mark.
| Out | In |
| Sam Mitchell | Tom Mitchell |
| Jordan Lewis | Jaeger O’Meara |
| Brian Lake | Kaiden Brand |
| Luke Hodge | Ryan Burton |
| Josh Gibson | James Sicily |
| David Hale | Tim O’Brien |
| Matt Suckling | Blake Hardwick |
| Brad Hill | Billy Hartung |
Mitchell and O’Meara are ready-made replacements for Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis. Each of the youngsters – Brand, Burton, Sicily, O’Brien, Hardwick and Hartung – have careers to date that compare well with Lake, Hodge, Gibson, Hale and Suckling at the same stage.
And there’s the Clarkson factor. It’s easy to think that with four premierships in 12 years, it’s all been smooth sailing for the coach, but as the graphic below shows, that’s clearly not been the case.
With four of his 12 years having been outside the top eight (and 2010 was a near fifth after a horror 1-6 start to the season), this is not unfamiliar territory. No doubt Clarkson will spend the summer scheming for the coming season and what he produces next year will be a fascinating side story.
Yes, there are some big unanswered questions: can Kaiden Brand hold down a key defensive post? Can Daniel Howe build on an excellent second half of 2017 to become the big-bodied midfielder Hawthorn need? Can Tim O’Brien develop the required consistency? Can Ryan Burton, James Sicily and Blake Hardwick sustain the excellence of season 2017? Can Shaun Burgoyne play quality footy as a 35-year-old? Will James Birchall recover from his serious knee injury?
If the Hawks get affirmative answers to most of these questions and can avoid the injury curse, they are poised to rise again for what would surely be Clarkson’s finest hour.
Mark
Guest
Unless Birchall has 6 (he doesn’t), that’s incorrect.
Thatsashame
Guest
Lord your ignorance is staggering. The bombers have endured more than any club ever, self inflicted as it was. To say they've learned nothing and walk around with arrogance is pure rubbish. They have put their heads down buns up and every person is working hard to make them the successful club they used to be. If you can't see they are clearly on the right track, with everyone playing their part then you need to watch more footy!
BigAl
Guest
Interesting development re. utilising rucks. I remember the days when Richmond used to start with 2 giant followers - 'Whale' Roberts and ...someone else ! Neither would get a game today.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Black, Power and Brown weren't top two when they finished. Dictator Clarkson culled your best two players in one fell swoop and then wondered why they were getting belted by 80 points by Gold Coast this year!
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
they could well make a return to finals footy??? yes and Vickery may well win the Brownlow...
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
New York - Here's some harsh Harry truth at ya! Mitchell - one trick pony...gets it out is all, slow doesn't kick enugh goals Roughie - best footy days behind him. Burgoyne - come off it, he will be 46 next year Burton - ok theres one who can play Gunston - not as good as he used to be suddenly in a very average team Breust - not as good as he used to be suddenly in a very average team Frawley - was never that good actually, getting old, best behind him Smith - Mr inconsistent and traumatised by missing those goals Rioli - hamstrings like frayed rope Birchall - good solid player nothing more McEvoy - so average he couldnt get a game at St Kilda O'Meara - injury prone when they took him, played 6 games in 2017 Sicily - flashy, inconsistent and self indulgent.
New York Hawk
Guest
F-ing auto-correct. Clearly I mean "Clarko" above.
New York Hawk
Guest
Who cares about young A-graders? It is about A-graders in total. Hawks have plenty if they don't get injured and perform to ability. Hawks A-graders are as follows: Mitchell, Roughie, Burgoyne, Burton, Gunston, Rioli, Birchall, Breust, Frawley, Smith, McEvoy and potentially Sicily and O'Meara. Optimistic, yes. Unrealistic, no.
New York Hawk
Guest
I'm not sure you're qualified to speak about Clarke's actions, decision-making or his tactics? He has four flags, five GF appearances and six prelims. You know better than Clarke, do you? On the off chance you do, please state your qualifications, achievements and nature of your credibility. Unless you are Leigh Matthews with your "Hard Truth Harry" screen name, I can't we how this is possible.
Brian
Guest
It was not arrogant or stupid. There's only 3 mids in the square and you cannot regenerate whilst Mitchell and Lewis always took 2 spots. I'd rather the Hawks try and regenerate rather then follow the Brisbane path of 2005-2007 where Black, Power & Brown kept them around the 10-14 range but they never rebuilt the list.
Birdman
Guest
yes Ty was an 2017 insurance policy not an object of desire- on exposed form he shouldn't feature in 2018 short of injuries to key talls.
Birdman
Guest
my bad, Bruce - yes 1 flag for Chip - still entitled to more credit that given by Don.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Come off it Glen Fairy. How can any club justify not offering contract extensions to the players who finished TOP TWO in their B and F??? It was an arrogant and stupid decision that has already backfired and torn the very soul out of that group.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
No wonder you are not passionate about your club Lord as who could be when they just spectate and make up the numbers? Even when you think of the AFL as a whole, you tend to remember great moments, great players. Your "moments" are so far in the past they are fossilised. Who are the really great players leaving a mark past 20 -25 years? Carey, Brereton, Buddy, Plugger, The Abletts, Mcleod, Richo, Voss, Buckley, Hird, Jakovich, Pav, Riewoldt, Watson, Lloyd, Dunstall, Rance, Wanganeen, Tredrea......can't find any Melbourne players....probably need to go back to Robbie Flower.
David C
Guest
I think you just picked the bottom 7 there. Hawthorn are with Melbourne, Dogs and Collingwood fighting for that last spot in the 8 ... not close to being contenders. Do you really thing all those injury prone players who missed games last year are going to stay on the park this year? Burton, Mitchell and maybe O'Meara are the only young A graders (potentially) on the list.
Brian
Guest
Yes its often forgotten when they punted on Vickery they did not think Roughead would be able to play.
Glen Fairy
Guest
Re Hawks 2018: Clarko said in his video to members that although his list was ageing, he couldn't deny them the chance at a 4th flag. So when they missed out in 2016, some drastic list changes were inevitable and somewhat overdue. Hodge, Burgoyne,Lewis and Mitchell were obviously nearing the end, none wanted to retire. The first two can potentially play in more positions that the latter two, even though the latter two were top two in the B&F. No easy way. I'm pretty sure L&M were both offered one year extensions. I like to think that Clarko was genuinely thinking of their futures as he came up with other plans. I'm told that O'Meara is not just a great player, but also the type of person you can build the next team around - maybe the next Hodge. If it comes off, it will be the trade of the decade. If not...then I guess you guys will be proved correct. Even big Ty was not a bad bet, albeit an expensive one - Ceglar out, Roughy no guarantee to play out the season - and he might relish no longer being the Richmond whipping boy . Frying pan to fire, it seems.
DeanM
Guest
No club has won more premierships than Hawthorn since they entered the comp and Essendons last premiership was under the cloud of salary cap cheating. I suppose you boast about Essendon having won more premierships than West Coast too. The most relevant Premierships are those won in the AFL era. Most of Essendons premierships were at a time of no equalistaion methods and realistically on a handful of teams had a genuine chance. It's good to see Essendon injecting young talent into their squad instead of drugs, perhaps they could rise up and win a clean premierships for the first time in a few decades.
Stephen
Guest
Lord D, Your literature is most impressive. You are however a little prone to sweeping generalizations. You may well be surprised at the state of remorse and regret experienced by many within the bosom of the EFC. And perhaps that should be displayed more publicly - I grant you. But to state the club 'clearly learned nothing from this saga..' is simply untrue sir.
Cat
Roar Guru
Persecuted you? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. The guilty aren’t persecuted and Essendon was found guilty.