Why Hilton Cartwright leads number six contenders

According to a new batting ratings system, adjusted for age Hilton Cartwright is the third-best Australian batsman, yet he’s far from a certainty to be in the first Test XI at the Gabba.

There is no player rating system in first-class cricket other than a list of career or season batting averages. As an armchair selector I have devised an algorithm to rate and rank first-class batsmen using easily available statistics.

The algorithm rates batsmen on quantitative batting criteria. No points are awarded or deducted for style (so our skipper is safe), but experience counts for something in the weighting of averages.

The below statistics feed into the algorithm.

• Test average – any batsmen who has played Test cricket and averaged over 24 receives a boost proportional to their average in recognition of selection and surpassing a moderate level of performance
• First-class average
• Frequency of first-class centuries (innings per century)
• Frequency of FC 50-plus scores (innings per 50-plus score)
• Number of Test and FC innings
• Age (see below)

Neither fielding nor personal traits, such as leadership, aggression, quality of banter, last name being Marsh, are considered, and neither are batsmen’s preferred conditions, position or bowling abilities taken into account.

Selectors must of course consider fielding, personality and bowling, but the algorithm is batting only based on that old-fashioned but perhaps resurgent notion to pick the best six batsmen in the XI.

(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

Ratings and rankings can be adjusted for age based on an assumption that batsmen will on average retire from Test cricket at 35. It is assumed that batsmen over 32 years old who haven’t played Test cricket in the last year will not be selected. This means Shaun Marsh and Callum Ferguson are still considered eligible, but Ed Cowan does not receive a ranking – though he’s in the table for comparison purposes.

Matthew Wade and Peter Nevill are given ratings but do not receive a ranking as they are not competing for a spot with specialist batsmen.

Table 1: Australia’s Top 20 First Class batsmen (without age adjustment) as at 1/11/17
Maximum rating score is 40. Tiebreaker when players have an equal score is number of FC centuries.

Analysis
Why Hilton so high?
Hilton Cartwright is highly rated by the algorithm for his current career record of a 50-plus score every three FC innings (four centuries and eight half-centuries in 36 innings) based on only 36 innings.

He is not directly penalised; however, ’50-plus frequency’ can change quickly early in a career. For example, if he goes just four consecutive innings without a 50, this component of his rating will drop from nine points to seven, dropping him below Shaun Marsh in age-unadjusted ratings and below Khawaja and Handscomb, adjusted for age.

Batting averages are penalised when total innings number are small. For example, less than 50 FC innings, with a smaller penalty for less than 100 innings. Cartwright’s FC average of 50.8 is rated roughly equivalent to having an average of around 46.5 after 75 FC innings. To achieve this, he would need to average around 43 for his next approximately 40 dismissals. It’s plausible, but actually a relatively high average in the modern Sheffield Shield.

Overall, Hilton Cartwright is the strongest specialist batsman candidate for number six even without adjusting for age.

(AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)

Age adjustment
The age-adjusted ratings below naturally boost younger players like Matt Renshaw and Travis Head, which reflects youngsters’ potential to improve and the selectors’ preference for long-term players. Ashton Turner, 24 years old, enters the top 20 for Moises Henriques, 30; the order of rankings changes significantly.

For the Ashes, age-unadjusted is arguably more appropriate given immediate success is desired.

Table 2: Australia’s Top 20 First Class batsmen (age-adjusted) as at 1/11/17

Keepers as batsmen
It may be surprising that Matthew Wade is rated a better batsman than Peter Nevill; however, Wade’s unimpressive Test average is still six runs per dismissal higher against similar FC stats. Wade being two years younger may be an underrated reason for selectors’ greater patience with him than Nevill, plus Smith favouring less tangible factors (“nice, Garry!”).

Selection implications
It is remarkable that batsmen near the bottom of the 20 have been selected in specialist batting positions for the Test team while players just outside the top six have received relatively little recent attention, though the ratings and rankings would look quite different 12 months ago.

One thing the algorithm won’t consider is form in one-day cricket, which the author believes to be a relatively poor predictor of Test success.

Conclusion
This algorithm produces player ratings intended to reflect a medium-to-long-term rating of first-class performance and be a predictor of Test success. Hilton Cartwright should be number six at the Gabba, and the keeper should be selected on keeping given the small difference in batting rating. The ratings suggest Joe Burns, Kurtis Patterson and Jake Lehmann probably deserve more recent attention.

And a final note: Chris Lynn was not considered for the above rankings due to serious injury. If available, he would be ranked 12th in the age-adjusted table.