North Melbourne’s controversial decision to axe club stars Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo and Michael Firrito, as well as the loss of star midfielder Daniel Wells to Collingwood via free agency, robbed it of 1588 games of experience.
The message out of the club, from both within the playing group and coaching staff as well as the board, was clear: the club was in full rebuild.
Fast-forward one season and North Melbourne finished 15th in 2017 with six wins and 16 losses – although had they lost to the Brisbane Lions in Round 23, they would’ve found themselves finishing bottom of the ladder. But six wins and three extremely narrow defeats represented a respectable season for such a young side.
However, most of the list-building action came from behind the scenes. North were very serious – and public – players for the two major stars of free agency last season: Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly, as well as others.
Given the club missed out on every single young or star talent it chased, North’s strategy has turned away from ‘accelerated rebuilding’ and onto the draft instead.
While topping up talent from the bottom end looks a good idea on paper, the problem is on North’s list. For so long North have been a side of mostly B-grade footballers – good, but not great. Jack Ziebell is an example as a player who is highly valued at North but who is not in the elite category of midfielders.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
This means North’s rebuild will be longer than most clubs, and for two reasons. One, a failure to attract any talent will keep the club lower down the ladder for longer, but also the club has enough talent on its list to stop it from finishing last. Six wins and some close losses in what will arguably be their worst season of the rebuild is testament to that.
Herein lies the problem, however – North’s strategy of going to the draft arguably requires it to finish in the bottom two or three for several seasons.
There are two reasons for this: because generally there is a gap between the best two or three players and the rest in drafts, as evidenced by this current draft class – Paddy Dow, Cameron Rayner and Luke Davies-Unakie are the standout three, and North will miss out on them with pick 4 – but also because finishing in the bottom two or three gives North access to two top-20 picks and at the very least a stronger hand to trade up from.
The consequences of this are dire in the long term: a lack of star power means North will not rebuild to a premiership level team and the cycle will begin again.
An example of a club successfully using the draft as a strategy is Carlton, who have looked to acquire as many top-20 picks as possible in the past few years. They’ve been bold, trading stars like Bryce Gibbs – great players who are fan favourites but ultimately aren’t going to be lining up for them in a grand final four or five seasons from now.
North Melbourne, with their absence of A-graders but a solid quantity of B-grade footballers, do not have the required currency to trade and increase their draft hand, which will mean that, unless the club gets an unusual return on mid-to-late picks – for example, Adelaide and Sydney – the club will struggle to cobble together talent good enough to build a premiership team from.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Teams like the Brisbane Lions, who had three or four top-25 picks for each of the last three drafts, including in 2017; Gold Coast, who have two first rounders next year and had four last year; and Fremantle, who have two top five picks and had two first rounds last year, are trading talent to stockpile early draft picks.
This gives these clubs a decade-long core of seven to ten players to build an era around – all similar in age and specifically drafted from the same three-year drafting strategy.
Because of its lack of A-grade talent North does not have access to a hand which can land them draft picks to accelerate their rebuild – and yet their B-grade-heavy list means they will struggle to finish low enough to have access to enough high draft picks to build a list around.
North Melbourne, so often battlers in the VFL/AFL, are in a paradox. Spending their spare salary cap on one or two elite talents will lift them up in the short term, but depth of elite talent is needed to challenge for a premiership. Conversely, the club will struggle to finish low enough to attract elite level picks.
The clubs list strategy needs a re-think, and fast, or North Melbourne, success-starved in recent times, will continue to middle-out in the depths of mediocrity in the AFL.
Epochery
Guest
I dont believe the draft system is better as players dictate where they want to go anyway. The salary cap should be the equalizer not the draft.
Perry Bridge
Guest
In the 'good old days' we got a cohort of players via internal development through the Under 19s!!!! I gather the draft system is superior and players having a manager before a club is ideal in the professional era.
Macca
Guest
Perry - I don't think North are doing a bad job, just that they don't have the capacity to really get a clump of high draft picks in in a short time (like the Hawks did with Frankin, Lewis & Roughhead not long after grabbing Hodge and Mitchell) or the Cats did prior to that or Freo did in and around the 2008 draft. To me that strategy is what sets a team up for long term success - lots of high quality players in the same age bracket. As for Kerridge - he has played some very good games for the blues but his value to them is that he sets very high standards around the club and on the track and if we lose someone like Cripps or E Curnow like we did this year he can come in and minimise the damage - he isn't elite but a solid citizen.
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Macca I recall Kerridge had one ripper game for the Crows....at Etihad....putting the knife into North one afternoon. I'm still waiting for him to do that against other sides. re North draft - considering the ladder positions compared to Carlton: 2012: NM 8, Carl 10 2013: NM 10, Carl 8*(Ess outed) 2014: NM 6 (prelim), Carl 13 2015: NM 8 (prelim), Carl18 2016: NM 8, Carl 14 2017: NM 15, Carl 16 Based on the pain Carlton has gone through on field - the draft/recruiting strategy really must start to bare fruit. North contrast to Freo, they're running 4 (1st) and 8 (2nd) over that time frame (2012-16 drafts) with ladder finishes of 7, 3, 1, 4 and 16 before 14 this year. Their best draft pick was Weller (pick 13 in 2014 draft) - but he's gone out but obviously the Dockers have brought in some talent too. North are going okay. Paid very little for guys like Dal Santo. It was worth it for a crack at it and I loved the elim final win over Rich in 2015 (90K crowd at MCG) - that was a great atmosphere (better than a GF in many respects.....contrast to '96 and '99).
Macca
Guest
Yeah Perry, I am trying very hard to see the positives, opportunity for young player, he will get a full pre-season for 2019, probably higher draft pick in 2018, the 2017 lists haven't closed yet but damn its annoying.
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Macca Well - we jinxed Docherty!!! I won't mention anybody else - I promise......try to ignore that I mentioned Weitering.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Look at Carltons record I produced for you over the past 16 years, it is abysmal, laughable and a disgrace. Four wooden spoons and favoured for your fifth next year! Your last flag was 1995. You cleared out someone who could coach in Ratten and brought in a guy who McGuire had quite correctly found out was ....gone....in Malthouse...You have a poor membership, unstable administration and your key recruiting guy SOS thinks all he has to do is assemble any young list and things will fix itself. You do not deserve an AFL licence.
Macca
Guest
Half Baked Harry - Interesting logic there - Carlton and Essendon currently have the same amount of premierships (16) in the AFL era Essendon have won 2 premierships from 3 Grand Finals while the blues have won 1 from 3 appearances, Essendon haven't won a final in 13 years to the blues 2 and in the past decade it is 4 finals appearances a piece and yet Carlton have a "problem" and Essendon don't?
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
no it's not Pope....that sums up the problem with North Melbourne, Melbourne and Carlton. It is not about playing footy, it is about winning premierships and that is why the Bombers will sit next year as the undisputed champion of VFL-AFL at 17 flags.
Macca
Guest
Perry - "Over the last 5 drafts North have had 5 first round selections and 9 second round selections." and if we assume the blues take 3 in this years draft in the last 3 the blues have had 14 picks in the last 3 years - including 7 first rounders 2 second rounders Jack Silvagni as a father son and Tom Williamson who the got for a bargain at 61. Compressing that 14 into 3 years while also adding the likes of Plowman, Pickett, Marchbank and Kennedy make a significant difference to what North have achieved. "there are question marks against a good few of them – pretty well the five your listed: Kerridge, Plowman, Lamb, Sumner & Phillips." Of those 5 the blues wanted Plowman and got the rest as steak knives - Plowman has been very good having played 40 of a possible 44 games, Kerridge has his limitations but is a good depth player, Phillips was handy in 2016, injured a lot of 2017 but won't play while Kreuzer is fit but a handy back up, Lamb will come under plenty of pressure for his spot in 2018 but was handy enough in the second half of 2017 while Sumner has been delisted. But considering all we paid for them was Menzel who has been delisted by Adelaide we got a very good deal.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Sheedy still hates that North won in '96 and '99 - he still reckons Essendon were the best team those seasons. Footy logic says you can't win a GF unless you make it - but shock 1 pt losses to Swans and Carlton respectively leave many at Essendon wondering "What if?". It was a healthy little rivalry for a while there. The 'look' of rivalries is about the colour combination bringing back memories. Seeing NM v Haw (gotta be stripes v stripes) and the GFs of 75, 76 and 78. For Haw v Ess it's the 83, 84, 85 era. The varied history of the VFL/AFL means the Melbourne clubs have a variety of once suburban neighbour rivalries with recruiting zones straddling streets etc that no longer apply. Other rivalries relate to a particular period of time. The AFL fixturing has much to answer for. Clearly the Anzac Day gift to Coll & Ess has enshrined that rivalry. Good Friday to me - would have been an ideal Nrth v Carl or Nrth v Ess (i.e. the battle or Royal Park or the battle of Flem/Mount rd) but instead it's the Racecourse Rd Rumble Rivalry that got a crack at it last year - - and what's the AFL do this year? Pulls the rug on the Doggies. It's hard to sustain a rivalry without a bit of buy-in from the AFL. Presently North gets nothing to work with. But yes - my family and I will ensure to not be out of town on Good Friday this year and will be there - it's tricky - that's the greatest camping 4 day weekend for the entire year.
Epochery
Guest
Hawthorn is always the team i want to beat because of the 79's rivalry. I think north need to be the team of northern melbourne like the buldogs are doing in the west. But carlton and essendon are embedded. North moved to coburg in 1965 for a season and in hindsight probably should of stayed there.
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Macca Over the last 5 drafts North have had 5 first round selections and 9 second round selections. 1st round (Jy Simpkin, Ben McKay, Sam Durdin, Luke McDonald and Taylor Garner - all still on the list and progressing) 2nd round (Watson, Williams, Ryan Clarke, Mitch Hibberd, Dan Nielson, Ed Vickers-Willis, Trent Dumont, Ben Jacobs and Mason Wood) - again all still on the list and mostly progressing. The main trading North did was with the later picks - although 3 third round picks in 2012 but only 2 other third rounders in 2015 and 2013. Out of that - only Ben Brown remains and that was a definite 'win' at pick 47. So with 14 1st and 2nd round draftees over the last 5 years on the list - North have protected their list to a degree in attempting to retain and nurture the 'top' draft talent (there's no guarantees). One of the best might be Preuss (1st round rookie selection in 2014). We know there's no assurances however North were able to bring in guys who helped get to successive prelims. Higgins is definite quality, and Waite too and has been mostly good at North. btw - of the older drafts - Goldstein is now the old man on the list (Rnd 3 pick 37 in 2006); Robbie Tarrant was 1/15 and Scott Thompson also 3/37 in 2007; Jack Ziebell 1/9 and Sam Wright 2/27 in 2008; Ben Cunnington 1/5 and MacMillan 3/37 in 2009; S.Atley 1/17 in 2010 but no one from 2011 remains (Gibson was a rookie and gone now, Brad McKenzie was 1/18 but was let go after 37 games). That's the gap - there - a couple of extra players 2010/11 however - we all know that that was the most compromised drafts - the Suns 2010 and GWS 2011 with a massive draft raid. McKenzie for North was the 7th non GWS pick by the time pick 18 was reached. It remains to be seen what value is gained from Hrovat, Williams and in particular my pet hate recruit in Jed Anderson (gee he must be a good bloke). I do look at some of the Carlton recycleds - and there are question marks against a good few of them - pretty well the five your listed: Kerridge, Plowman, Lamb, Sumner & Phillips. The biggest question mark has now turned the corner in Liam Jones (or so it seems). Anyway - I do suggest North have retained a base to reboot from. The engine room muscle and basic goal to goal line is in place as required with in most cases the understudy well known and already introduced to top level footy.
Epochery
Guest
This is a really interesting view of north. If you look at the 45 years since north finished last there are 2 significant periods 74-80 where north played in 5 grand finals winning 2 and 93-2000 where north played in 3 grand finals winning 2. But the rest of the time have been generally a mid table team. No Brownlow winner since 83 and no bonafide champion since Carey. Alot of good but not great players.
Steve009
Roar Rookie
Always curious when I hear North and the Hawks membership numbers how many Tasmanian memberships are in those totals.
Aransan
Guest
Pope, don't be so mean to Hard Luck Harry.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Yes to what Macca and Stephen said. I can read the most recent comments on the side bit but the article won't update.
Stephen
Guest
That's constructive Macca. And the good Pope is right - rivalries can ebb and flow. NM have been around since 1925. Interestingly, both Sheedy and Robert Shaw were asked recently - who they considered to be Essendon's biggest rival? Sheedy said - Carlton and NM. Shaw answered NM only! And yes - I confess to being most surprised by the NM reference. Good to see the Carlton 'swagger' is back Macca! LOL. How will you be if/when the Blues are threatening for their next premiership? You might clear-out the Roar platform!!
Macca
Guest
Pope - opposition supporters flock to games against teams they hate. If I was in the North marketing team I would be doing everything I could to revive those old rivalries. Promote them heavily with the membership package and ensure you pack out your homes games with your supporters for a start but also try and engage the opposition the social media as much as possible. Then hope the team can pull off an upset win or a special moment that gives you something to build on.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Macca maybe North's traditional battles have fallen off the radar recently (a bit like your blues) but these things come and go. Hawthorn is the biggest from a North point of view but damn them, other teams keep letting the Hawks win GFs. The Essendon one goes back a long way to the finals battles of the 40s and 50s most recently revived in the hard fought 90s and early 00s. They will be keen to revive them. Right now North's focus is holding onto the hilarious Melbourne Cup. Hopefully forever.