Look away Raiders fans.
It was only last year when the Viking clap was booming around the Nation’s Capital as a sniff of a premiership was in the brisk Canberra air. Crucial Edrick Lee mistakes all but cost them their first grand final appearance since 1994.
Fast forward to the end of 2017 and the future is bleak in the Nation’s Capital. Many ‘experts’ gazed into their crystal ball for 2017 and saw the Raiders painting ANZ stadium green come October first.
This was not the outcome as Ricky Stuart’s men failed to make the top eight in a very lacklustre season. With a very similar team line-up to their 2016 squad, you wouldn’t raise many eye-brows in saying that the Raiders can compete for the title in 2018, however I believe the decline will only continue and here’s why.
As the competition becomes closer each year the need to have the best players in key positions has been more crucial than ever. The Raiders have made no notable signings for the second year in a row, exposing them to the risk of becoming even more predictable. Maintaining the same line-up for consecutive seasons is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you are a Melbourne Storm fan.
Nevertheless, the Storm try to resist change based on their continued success over the years. 2017 was not a prosperous year for the Raiders so player turnover may be needed.
Unfortunately, if you are a Raiders fan, this trend won’t change in the immediate future as it has been published that the club is under pressure to shed players due to salary cap pressures.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Now, let’s examine the coach, Ricky Stuart. He took the Sydney Roosters to a premiership in his first year at the club and even followed that up with grand final appearances in 2003 and 2004. Following this success, Stuart’s hard disciplined approach grew stale at Bondi with back-to-back poor seasons before he was sacked.
In his first full year at the Cronulla Sharks, Stuart enjoyed success with the club making the preliminary finals. Once again however, the atmosphere within the playing group became unsettled the following year with the Sharks finishing in an underwhelming 15th.
It is hard to know whether Stuart could have had success at the Parramatta Eels as subsequently, he quit to take up the gig at the Raiders for family reasons. As the past has shown, Stuart can bring immediate success however, maybe there are underlying issues in his coaching techniques as players seem to loose motivation in playing for the former star over time.
Now let’s delve into the playing roster. Joseph Leilua exhibits such raw power and speed that in 2012 he was named in the emerging NSW Blues squad. Attitude problems have marred the hulking centre’s career so far shown by his sacking from the Roosters for disciplinary reasons, and his early release from the Knights somewhat due to being on the outer with coach Rick Stone.
Fast forward to 2017 and the Samoan international has backed up a strong first year with a club with an uninspiring second year yet again. Déjà vu right? Just from history we can see that Leilua thrives with change while not responding well to a stagnant environment.
2016 was so successful for the Raiders largely due to the impact of their halves and origin back-rower Josh Papalii. Much like the rest of the squad, Aidan Sezer and Blake Austin failed to live up to expectations in 2017.
Furthermore, on paper the two can’t match combinations such as, Luke Keary and Cooper Cronk, or Michael Morgan and Johnathan Thurston. Papalii had a reasonably good 2017 however comes off contact at the end of 2018 which could propose a distraction as no doubt other clubs such as Souths, will be looking for back-rowers.
There is no doubt that predicting the Canberra Raiders for the spoon is controversial. Some betting companies have placed the Wests Tigers at $4.50 for the spoon compared to the Raiders at $17. However, the Viking clap might not be enough to inspire the ‘Green Machine’ to a successful 2018.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
I've been on board the Roosters since 74-75 , when as a 7 yr old I jumped on the band wagon. So I've seen plenty of ups n downs . And as far as million dollar players goes , I doubt Cordner would be getting that kind of money .
Peter Phelps
Guest
Ricky is not a good strategic coach. He needs senior players to lead the team and set the style. He is a weak leader who's bombastic style quickly turns destructive whenever his team is under pressure. The prediction in this article could be very close to the truth.
Peter Phelps
Guest
Its hard to believe in a coach you cannot trust.
Peter Phelps
Guest
The big issue is Stuart. His bombastic style spurs players on in the short term especially when things are are going well but turns destructive in the longer term. His style is toxic and completely contrary to coaches such as Belamy who builds motivation through long term trust and loyalty. This is exactly why Stuart had more success in Origin than Belamy. For me, Stuart should never coach at NRL level and I believe that the Raiders will struggle as long as he is in charge. Thank goodness he doesn't coach at my club.
Peter Phelps
Guest
They are subsidising the roosters.
Big Dog
Guest
we'll be fiiiiine its an even year
Greg Ambrose
Guest
More Giants at the Raiders? A couple of midgets might be a good idea.
Doug Stables
Guest
They have signed Jarrett Boland a giant from the Roosters under 20's, he wasn't used right at the Roosters just a battering ram. Ricky play him a bit wider & and let him use his power & offload skills. I wish we still had him, a future 1st grader for sure.
Geo
Guest
L. Mitchell, Cronk, Cordner, Keary, Fergo, Friend, Napa, Tedesco - and yes I exaggerated. Except for Cronk and Cordner, these guys aren't worth $1m, but the raiders would need to pay it to coax them out of the Chook Pen. I'd like to live in Bondi and have the benefit of the massive market that Sydney represents. I can't imagine the Roosters players having to pay for anything either. At least I was a massive Easts fan in 1966 when "we" lost every game - it must be a bit easier to support them now. My Dad and I went to every game at the Sports Ground in that year, which obviously preceded the invention of brown paper bags....
Oingo Boingo
Guest
Please name those 10 players Geo , I can't wait .
Taree Raider
Guest
Simple, have a point of difference to the opposition. Work to your strengths. The Raiders can attack & do it better than every other team. They can't grind out wins based on defence, like most of the other successful teams do. The emphasis must be on an attacking game, but with the ability to build pressure with the ball from repeat sets or the opposition having to work their way out of their own end. The Raiders need Siezer to get repeat sets & 40/20's, because if they can have the ball more than the opposition their attack will win the game. This type of play is high risk, but the rewards are great. No other NRL team can defend for 80 minutes against the Raiders when they attack, even when they are behind on the score board, if they move the ball & don't play with 'structure' there is no answer. Sometimes you have to accept that on some days it just doesn't work. However last season (2017) proved that trying to be the same as everyone else (defence focused) doesn't work for the Raiders. Attack is where its at.............. Full Stop.
RandyM
Guest
The Raiders are backed by plenty of wealth. If there was no salary cap I think they would be one of the better off clubs. However you are right in that they don't have access to the TPA's some other teams do (Roosters, Broncos, Storm).
Beastie
Roar Rookie
That is true, but I was just having a look at their home game roster during the colder months (May - August) and they only have 3 games that will be played at night with another 5 games to be played during the afternoon period (2:00pm - 4:10pm). I wouldn't be very happy with that scheduling considering that is one of the main factors in making Canberra a tough place to travel to during those cold winter months as you said.
Ron Norton
Guest
Absolutely right. The best comment I've read here.
Geo
Guest
The Salary Cap is only relevant for the poorer teams - some of whom can barely scratch enough dollars together to spend on players. The heavyweights are those teams with access to multimillionaire's with many companies that can give the best players TPA's. There is no level playing field - it's not even close. I support the Raiders, so have to be happy if we compete in each game. One looks at the Roosters roster even before they brought Cronk into it, and you wonder how they can have so many good players - about 10 of them would be on a million if they went to Wests or the Raiders. I think it's why many people such as myself are only watching their team play every week; whereas in the old days I'd watch absolutely every game possible. The Raiders were superior when they had half the Queensland SOO team and the best Kiwis - bringing in the Broncos and Warriors put an abrupt end to that. The 2018 Roosters and Broncos (every year) can only be assessed as successful if they win the 2018 Premiership. Other teams are doing damned well to finish in the Top 8. Blame the NRL for the very un-level playing field; not the teams. The NRL is a large organisation with many resources; why can't they get it right?
RandyM
Guest
The Raiders spine was really poor in 2017. Hodgson was well off his best and was becoming a bit too predictable. Sezer was missing for a lot of the season and needs to get more involved. Austin was hot and cold and his defence needs some serious work. Wighton showed that he is not a fullback imo, too many mistakes in him. He really lacks composure and should be back at centre or second row. Unless these four positions improve drastically the Raiders will be nowhere near the top 4 again.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Yep - Paulo and Papalii in particular can turn into fatty boombahs if they are let loose in the dining room. They came back from the World Cup looking like Sumo wrestlers. Don't think Ricky was to impressed. From the photos I've seen of Boyd in pre-season training he is looking pretty fit. To be fair Paulo and Papalii were probably the best forwards for the Raiders this season.
ferret
Guest
On the few occasions I saw the Raiders last year, their forwards looked FAT. Each one seemed to be carrying at least 5 kg too many. They're not the most agile forward pack. Might work in short bursts in the NFL but with endurance being a significant factor in rugby league, I though the pack ran out of puff each week, amd so couldn't maintain an 80 minute effort. (BTW put Joey in the too fat category as well).
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
All good points 3 Hats. Ricky has moved away from the previous philosophy of investing in local youth and the negatives associated with this (e.g. the behaviour of Carney and Dugan) to forming a more mature squad that he could be competitive. At least Ricky has the drawing power to achieve this and has attracted players from Sydney, Newcastle and the Gold Coast. 2016 was a breakout year due to having so many emerging players on lower coin than their performances showed - such as Rapana, BJ, Hodgson and Austin.. This was always going to eventually bite as their contracts were upgraded.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Hear what you are saying about Jack but we already have Croker and BJ in the centres and I'm not sure I want to break them up. I'd be happy for Jack to go back to the wing and keep his focus simple. And agree that I don't think there would be much interest in Bateman or Wighton on the player market at present. Looks like we are stuck with them for now. And agree about Boyd. I think we let the wrong forward go with Paul Vaughan. The problem with Boyd is he runs very upright and he can be bent back by the defence whereas Vaughan keeps his head and chest down low when he engages the defence and as a consequence can get more metreage. The thing that gets me is that we supporters can see this but the coaching staff doesn't. Its a technical thing that can be improved. I suspect that Boyd is fired up for a better season next year given he was a Test forward in 2016. Interesting points you make about how the Raiders changed their style of play in 2017 compared to 2016. I think Ricky wanted them to learn how to win games by grinding them out in low scoring defensive displays but they came up just short on a number of occasions. The thing about wanting to get in the wrestle is if you make one crucial mistake you are toast whereas if you put the pedal to the metal and get a big lead you are less vulnerable. Will be interesting to see if they go back to their attacking style next year. I think Austin in particular really pulled his head in last season and didn't show the same running game which didn't help. He needs to get it back. Its what he is good at. While Hodgson had a great 2016 he overplayed his hand too many times in 2017 which broke down our attack. He seemed to be playing off the top of his head and some of his decisions such as some of his little kicks on the 3rd or 4th tackle close to the try line were just dumb and costly. Will be interesting to see how the team goes with a new hooker.