CF Orr Stakes: Group 1 preview and tips

Group 1 racing is back this weekend, and if Saturday’s fields at Caulfield don’t get you excited for the next few months of racing, then you just don’t love the sport.

The CF Orr Stakes is the headline act of course, with plenty of Group 1 credentials among the runners, but the support races are a delectable mix of two and three-year-old races, plus something for the older horses, and plenty of smart types engaged in the sprint races.

The Orr Stakes has attracted a 14-horse field, with exactly half of them resuming from a spell. To make matters even harder, all seven first-uppers are Group 1 winners, so their class is undeniable even if we haven’t seen them so far this year.

As usual, Darren Weir holds a firm hand.

Tosen Stardom heads the market, and has been well backed through the week so far. He finally put things together last prep, recording dual Group 1 wins, both with a degree of ease thanks to his fast-finishing burst.

He hasn’t won in his last eight first-up attempts, and has only placed in one of his last five. Sobering stats, especially given Weir horses are known to improve into their prep, and he’s had some favourites get rolled recently.

Stablemate Black Heart Bart is awfully hard to beat at the Caulfield 1400m, with four wins including this race last year, in what may have been a weaker field. Is he the horse he was though, with no wins from his last eight runs? You’re getting a handy price to find out, given he’s double what he was last year.

Weir also has Brave Smash, as the third-elect of his runners. He’s coming off a first-up fifth in the Australia Stakes that could only kindly be described as plain. He was hot favourite there thanks to his Everest run in the spring, but will almost touch double figures here. Can you smell what Weir is cooking?

Hartnell is the clear and present danger to the Weir trio, coming off a spring that was ultimately disappointing. He races exclusively in Melbourne to get away from Winx, but could only record the one win for his troubles, even though he was twice Group 1 second.

Hartnell’s spring win was in the Lawrence Stakes, also at the Caulfield 1400m. He beat Black Heart Bart by over three lengths that day, and looked as dominant as he ever has. A reproduction of that run will win this race.

Hartnell (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Shillelagh is a danger horse, coming off a Group 1 winning preparation for Chris Waller. She’s another that has a win at the track and distance, and her third in the Tristarc here last October was one of the runs of the spring. If she’s primed, she’s a player, and the market suggests she is.

The Australia Stakes quinella of Thronum and Mr Sneaky must be respected. Thronum had it all his own way up front, and was never headed. He had handy early season three-year-old form back in the spring of 2016, and is clearly untapped after missing over a year of racing.

Mr Sneaky is shaping as lovely sprinter-miler, and you’d be all over him if this was a handicap. Whether he can beat all of these at weight-for-age is a question, especially from barrier 13, but he’s got some goods wins in his future.

A few fitter horses of lesser class will be looking to claim some prizemoney and deserve their chance. Tshahitsi is a terrific Tasmanian that specialises at 1400m and never runs poorly. Dollar for Dollar is in a similar vein – he wins everything in Adelaide and acquits himself well in Melbourne.

Lord of the Sky is not seen as anything more than a 1200m horse, and has been a few lengths off them in his two cracks at seven furlongs, but appeals as over the odds if looking for a place bet. He’ll likely lead from Thronum and Tshahitsi, and if he gets a breather at some stage, he might catch a few off guard in the straight.

The biggest x-factor in the race is the three-year-old Caulfield Guineas winner, Mighty Boss, not least of all because he was 100-1 in claiming that race.

He’s very much an unknown and is difficult to place, but when they win at those odds, you want to see them again.

Single Gaze will run honestly but probably can’t win. Abbey Marie will be running on. Jester Halo looks outclassed.

Selections
1. Hartnell 2. Brave Smash 3. Mr Sneaky 4. Black Heart Bart

Looking at the other races, you can take your pick in a hot Rubiton Stakes. Rich Charm is the most improved sprinter in the country, Super Cash is almost unbeatable first-up, Flamberge is a triple Group 1 winner, and Hellbent closes furiously. Then there’s the three-year-olds – Merchant Navy looking to enhance his credentials after a stunning Coolmore Stud Stakes win on Derby day, Prezado looks more than handy, and Ardrossan could be anything.

The Kevin Hayes Stakes brings some nice fillies together. Shoals is a star, but Booker might be more suited at 1200m, and could appeal at a bit more value. Tulip mixed it with the best in the Everest and will have admirers.

The two-year-old races will have eyes on them. Is the upcoming Blue Diamond winner among them? The market isn’t sure at this stage, but you can be sure there’ll be a more defined pecking order after we see them run.

Al Naifa looks a nice each-way bet in the fillies Prelude with the extra race experience, if the widest gate proves no spoil. Stablemate Lake District Girl is one that can improve at big odds.

In the colts and geldings Prelude, Ollivander looks a tough nut to crack, and it will be interesting to see how the spruik Godolphin horse Plague Stone measures up.