The eternal war between structure and chaos took another turn in the third round of the Six Nations tournament two weeks ago.
An intensely well-drilled Ireland side just about held off deconstructed Wales in Dublin, while what captain John Barclay describes as the ‘organised chaos’ of the Scotland attack laid waste to Eddie’s England in Edinburgh. We can call it an honourable draw.
It was a historic day at Murrayfield. It was not only the first time in ten years that Scotland had managed to win a game against England on their home ground, it was also the first time that they had even scored a try against the ‘auld enemy’ in a decade.
During my time with Stuart Lancaster’s England, we played Scotland three times in four years at Murrayfield without conceding anything but penalties. That has all changed under the superior attack coaching of first Vern Cotter and latterly, Gregor Townsend. Scotland have now scored 33 tries in their last nine games with Townsend in charge, an All Black-like ratio of almost four tries per game.
Scotland centre Huw Jones broke the ice in the 15th minute, and after that it became like a stream of London buses. Where one arrived, two others swiftly followed in the course of the first half.
The Murrayfield encounter was a tantalising foretaste of what might await in the titanic Twickenham match-up between England and New Zealand later this year. The Scotland team modelled by Cotter and Townsend is a Northern Hemisphere/New Zealand hybrid with typical Kiwi attributes.
Last month I wrote an article examining England’s chances of beating the All Blacks when they tour Europe in November. I pointed out the importance of the English kicking game in their overall game-construction, and at Murrayfield Scotland went about their business with a purpose, neutralising it completely. They won the kicking duels for territory and it was not until the 68th minute of the match that England won a high ball back.
Add to this no fewer than eight Scotland turnovers at an under-resourced (and unsympathetically refereed) English breakdown, and Scotland were in A1 position to play their game. How they went on to exploit this foundation with their attacking play will be of particular interest to New Zealand, with the arsenal of weapons at their disposal.
The underlying principle of the English defence is that of the ‘super-rush’. They are not afraid to fire players right up on to the opposition receivers, and frequently well past the ball, in order to create pressure on handling and decision-making. This idea would have alarmed England World Cup-winning defence coach Phil Larder – who always coached his defenders to stay in front of the ball-carrier and his options at all times – but it is a sign of changing times in the game as a whole.
The ultimate aim of the England super-rush was seen in a couple of instances in the second half of the match (at 4:08 and 4:40 on the reel):
In the first case, Danny Care is away for the intercept try, in the second Courtney Lawes causes a fumble which again led to a ‘try’ at the other end of the field. Fortunately for Scotland, both were called back by referee Nigel Owens for an illegality at the breakdown by Joe Launchbury and a knock-on in the tackle by Lawes.
An excellent example of England’s policy, and Scotland’s counter-measures, occurred right at the very beginning of the game:
Scotland have only made three short link passes, but already the highest England defender (Owen Farrell) is more then ten metres upfield from the base of the previous ruck, and five metres past the ball.
The phase as a whole was instructive, as Scotland successfully turned the principle of the ‘super-rush’ on its head:
Scotland use the depth of their attacking alignment to pull England’s super-rush as far upfield as possible, before matching up a forward (prop Gordon Reid) in contact against England’s smallest and least physical defensive back (George Ford). Under no pressure, Reid is able to turn and offload to a support runner who has broken underneath Farrell’s rush (Peter Horne).
A very similar sequence occurred in the second half of the game:
Again the rush is drawn out on to two deep-lying receivers in order to create a gap for Scotland number 12 Peter Horne to run into. There is that same ten-metre gap between the base of the previous ruck and England number eight Nathan Hughes as he goes to pressure Finn Russell at second receiver:
There is little doubt that Scotland would have scored if Horne’s pass to the men outside him had been more accurate.
The chance originated from a Scotland kick return, which returns us neatly back to the source of their success in ‘organised chaos’. After a Danny Care kick deep into the Scotland 22, the first thought of Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell is to launch a counter-attack from deep against an unstructured defence:
The first three defenders have rushed on Hogg, but there is a huge gap of at least 40 metres back to Jonathan Joseph leading the outside of the line up behind them. Scotland are a side – like New Zealand – programmed to take advantage of just this kind of opportunity:
Another bit of profitable organised chaos (a tapped penalty taken on the Scottish 22) led to a similar counter from deep, which eventually resulted in Scotland’s second try of the first half.
Russell throws a superb delivery off his left hand over the top of the rusher (Joseph) to put Huw Jones into the gap:
The remainder of this terrific sequence of play can be viewed on this highlight reel at 2:35 – 3:15.
Summary
Of the five fully-competitive teams in the Six Nations, two (Wales and Scotland) have effectively become New Zealand/Northern Hemisphere hybrids geared to play their best rugby in ‘organised chaos’. The other three remain firmly on structured turf, although both Ireland and England are both set up to adapt to chaos in specific circumstances.
The ebb and flow of power between the two philosophies has been fascinating to watch over the past few weeks. In a sense, Scotland finished the chances Wales were able to create but could not convert against England at Murrayfield.
Wales, meanwhile, nearly upset Ireland on a meagre 30 per cent diet of possession, creating one clean break for every six rucks they built, compared to Ireland’s one in 13 ratio.
All of which will interest the All Blacks greatly as they prepare for their showdown with England on November 10. New Zealand are the experts at both locating and playing through organised chaos, in situations where their advantage in individual skill-sets can be seen to its best effect.
When the two teams collide in the autumn, it will not just be a battle between (at the time of speaking) the number one and number two ranked sides in the world, it will be a clash of philosophies about how to play the game of rugby and a definite clue to the future evolution of the game.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Did you see this Fox? Highly unpleasant and just the kind of thing the English media will look for to torpedo Jones before the WC. If those comments are really the measure of the man, he's smaller in character than he is in stature sadly.
Fox
Roar Guru
A lot a lot of water indeed - A win against Ireland will get their confidence back I think serving them well going into the SA series. SA will be better than last year by some distance IMO but I would still back England because they have worked with their coach longer and combos etc. I expect England to take the first test and the next two will be tight but I think England will take the series. SA have some serial penalty offenders as well and that could play into Farrell's hands. The big concern could be the ref - I have not seen one either North or South rule the contact area strictly according to the new laws or in some cases the ball actually being hooked. Will Genia still just throws it under the props feet half the time and gets away with it and he is not alone. And don't get me started on assistant referees who seem reluctant to make calls on the refs blind side of the scrum. It seems every time we have a law change, it becomes rules according to the refs own wants for the flow of the game. Scrums for some reason are taking too long to get set as well in some games now. I am also I not sold on the half back putting in the ball when he want to, There is a tendency for half backs to hold as long as they can to milk a penalty by the opposition scrum pushing early which is bound to happen. There should be a 5 second rule ( maybe even 3 for a scrum as 5 seconds is long when two team are hanging out to push) like the ruck IMO once the ref calls set. Half backs need to be pulled into line for the way they constantly try to milk penalties and especially if their scrum is under pressure. It's no gamesmanship - it an inverted form cheating by holding off putting in knowing full well the defending pack will eventually push. Personally Nick I think as soon as the Ref call set to go - pack should be allowed to push - this would force the half back to get in in quicker and especially if it is their scrum under pressure These laws help protect the weaker scrum to a certain extent and that is why we see scrums go backwards but the ball still gets out because they couldn't push earlier even though they are dominating. But then we might have a penalty fest I guess.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Thank you Nick. Your support or understanding means a lot to me.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
It could get a whole lot worse for England if they lose to Ireland - quite possible to lose 3-0 or 2-1 to Rassie's Bokke then, and suddenly it's five losses out of six games and confidence is very low going into the November series... But a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then, both for England and the AB's, so let's see how things go!
Fox
Roar Guru
Actually you miss read me Nick - I want them to be ranked 2 in the world when we play them I not gloating and sorry if you think that - but that is way it is right now and I think it is disappointing this has happened at this time. I did not expect them to lose to France - Scotland we have to give credit to they are very good side now. So I think its disappointing Nick because this game has been hyped in NZ as well as England - so I think its disappointing for everyone Not that I'm taking anything away from Ireland - so you misread me Nick - I want England to beat Ireland to get back up the rankings I was merely pointing out just how bad this slump is for England and promotion of November game. Rugby needs big promo games like the November test it helps promote the game globally as well with all the hype around that game. So sorry Nick but you misread me entirely but okay my fault. There is talk the Ford Farrell axis might go - what do you think? with Farrell going to ten and bigger 12 like Teo coming in.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I get the feeling that McBain is no fan of EJ. In a nutshell Fin - I feel we have to allow for the possibility that Eddie may have changed in some areas from the time McBain knew him. His coaching patterns are certainly not the same as in the past. He may be right ofc and the same pattern will be repeated, but if the change has taken root sufficiently it may also be just an interval in England's development (all teams have them, even the AB's)... A healthy England is after all good for the game as a whole - without them where would all the gripes be directed?
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I think you're just getting a bit too jolly for your own good about England's loss of form Fox! Give it up man - better to take pleasure in the positive aspects of life, not gloat over negatives :D
Fox
Roar Guru
No "beam me up Scotty" By the way I just did prediction the rankings predictor which is actually pretty arccurate I have found. Based on results so far the new ranking will have England in 4th with Ireland 2nd and Australia 3rd and Scotland 4th A loss to Ireland will have England drop to 5th Nick if Scotland beat Italy ( a given) Boy oh boy is that fall from grace for England and EJ and man does that take plenty of sting out of the November promotion if Ireland beat Australia. I predict come November England will be 3rd or 4th and that is assuming a series win in SA. But you take a serious points hit losing to sides ranked lower than you. Right now as it stand England are 4th and as I say Nick the ranking predictor has been pretty spot on in the past - it just not official as it hasn't been adjusted as the final 6 Nations game is not complete - but a loss to Ireland and it could get very ugly in the rankings for England. What a time for them to mess up - the TV networks have probably already made the commercials -or writing them - they may need some editing if they say "Battle between the 2 best sides in world"...as Ireland networks will be saying that in theirs the week before !!!!! And they will to stick to England rest assured of that.
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, Mark McBain on Radio in Brisbane this morning had some interesting comments around Eddie. His skill is taking a disorganized team and giving them structure/bringing them together to play a certain style of football. He can get them to a competitive level with this approach, but he cannot create great teams that grow and evolve and adapt to the game in front of them because he is such a control freak and micro manages everything. He also gets one thing in his mind and does not move away from it. At the moment it is size of his backrowers. They are the biggest and slowest in World rugby. Accordingly, the Scots and the French took England’s structure apart at the breakdown. Once the opposition works out how to disrupt the Eddie plan – the players start getting confused about what they should do - even though their instincts say do one thing, there is a devil on their shoulder saying – “don’t do that, you are in my team, you will play my way, do this” well it’s too late then as the ball is two phases away. McBain thinks England has peaked and teams that have worked them out will dismantle them until they adapt again. I get the feeling that McBain is no fan of EJ.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Thanks Fin. Yes the Reds are showing a lot grit and character, and most importantly winning the games they have a chance to win - unlike last year. On the other hand, a little concerning that the game went down to the wire when Queensland should have been comfortably ahead on the back of a 15-5 pen count. Midfield still an open question though Daugunu looks like he belongs on one wing. They are limited and won't beat the better sides in the comp this season, but a 50% record is not out of the question.
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, I thought you might find this article of interest. Also interesting that Brad Thorn notched up a victory against his one time All Blacks coach on Saturday. https://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/super-rugby/teams/reds/queensland-reds-forwards-channel-coach-brad-thorns-love-of-scrums/news-story/33b7994e3a7660b72668727dba845f80
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Is that cat named after Scott Allen Fox? :D
Fox
Roar Guru
I am not a big fan of Chris - though he has surprised me with some articles in good way - but he writes from a twisted positioning at times agreed. Almost - Chris get beck on the medication! Gregory Paul ( well he is Scottish) - and I have Spanish/Scottish heritage so I know they are not to be trusted :) maybe that's my problem right there Nick ! That being said Paul does write some good articles and interesting interviews with AB player as one of NZ's leading Newspapers. So to discount him entirely is a bit disingenuous I think He predicted England would beat Australia 4 nil over 4 test matches and lose to Ireland on their tour and that they would lose to Scotland home and away long before they arrived. Not entirely a work or genius but not bad and he got the reasons right as well - so hey credit where it's due. He doesn't rate Cheika as a coach and as you know I share his view on that all be it for not entirely the same reasons. So I try to listen to what everyone has to say within reason But no Nick, I take my rugby from everywhere and sure there are those I respect more than others like your self and I back my own instincts and knowledge as well which I like to think is okay I mean, an England supporter would not take to kindly to that article I agree and understand that, and I think it was designed to have crack at England to be sure but that being said - many a true word said in jest or joust and I think the point about England being no2 in world come November may indeed be valid - bitter pill though it maybe to swallow as Ireland who play Australia are playing a higher ranked side in the June window. It will certainly take the gloss out of some of the event if that does happen and especially if the real game between the two top ranked sides is the week before - the English media will have to promote it from another angle - big game no question -but the gloss taken slightly off - yeah of course with (if it happens) with the no2 side and Six Nations Champions the week before= at least from a promotional point of view I mean it would be rich to make an TV commercial saying the best side in the North plays the best side in from the South and disrespectful to Ireland.Only one of those might true come November. And his attack on EJ was a little harsh and I respect EJ as you know but Clive is right , the wheels are falling of at this point - Lions tour or not - I mean the Lions was also Ireland players and they are playing well and in both sides neither had all 23 on tour and Murray and Sexton played plenty and look good for Ireland. I mean England had 16 players and Ireland 11 in the Lions Tour. Why is one playing well and the other not? And Clive Woodward did not even consider the Lions Tour as factor really. I don't know, as you say it is difficult to know - but maybe Scotland, Ireland and even France are catching up to England as well or figuring them out tactically maybe. Either way it will be interesting to see what EJ does against Ireland because a loss there an Ireland would go to no2 in the world if memory serves me right - personnel changes or tactical or both? Gotta go Nick my two dogs almost broke my personally signed Chris Rattue statue ;) One's named Greggy and the other Paulie and my cat named Scotty!!!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Nah it's still trashy Fox. But by all means continue trusting the NZH's judgements if it pleases you! :D England have been poor in 2018 without question, but until you take the 'Lions effect' out of the picture you cannot see just how much that tour has taken out of some of the core English players (same with Saracens at club level). With the benefit of a proper rest and pre-season, they should be better come November - how much? is the real question... I take it you'll be quoting Chris Rattue and Gregor Paul as your rugby idols from now on? :)
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
They've flatlined Fin, esp in their attacking play. But I think they're are better than they've looked so far in 2018. Lions tours tend to have a huge impact on the players who are at the core of them, and the core of the side was English. SA will be an uphill struggle, but they should be fresher for the November series with a proper R & R and pre-season behind them...
Fox
Roar Guru
Also Clive Woodward think Eddie's honeymoon is over and the performance of England losing three in row is unacceptable https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/international/102166739/eddie-jones-honeymoon-is-over-after-six-nations-slump-says-former-england-world-cup-winning-coach-clive-woodward It maybe a while off but England and their fans could be in for a rude awakening against the AB's in November - they once again were outplayed in the contact area against France - of this is England great defence then I think some people need to think again. They didn't dominate in the scrum either. And Farrell and Ford looked all at sea in places. The AB's won't be losing any sleep over this England. They need to do some serious rethinking come November and should be thankful that was France they played last night and not the AB's. Three in row with the Six Nations Champions to come- will they be number 2 come November - the Herald article is looking rather sharp if you ask me Nick. rather sharp indeed.
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, 12 months ago you were of the opinion that the growth curve for England under Eddie Jones had flatlined. Now a further 12 months on from that, how do you view their progression over the last year? I am just wondering because EJ coached teams have a tendency to crash and burn after a while.
Fox
Roar Guru
Well Nick perhaps the NZ Herald's article about EJ were not so trashy after all - they were not impressive against France and with the Scotland game...Hmmmm....and will England be no2 in the world when they play the All Blacks in November? I actually do not think they will and especially if the lose to Ireland. Not such a trashy article after all IMO. I don't know is you have been watching but Akira Ioane is playing the season of his life at no8 and the best in the comp by some distance right now. Even the SA media are raving about him. So at last the AB's have ready replacement for Read.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I think he'll keep his spot without trouble, but it will be a surprise if Tupou isn't on the bench Fin. Excellent today in all aspects!
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, Sekope Kepu was quoted in the press this week saying that he has an enormous battle on his hands to keep his Wallaby spot ahead of Taniela Tupou.