England will break Irish hearts

England vs Ireland. The third best team in the world against the second best team in the world.
England will probably win and here’s my reasoning.

Irish defence
There are holes, big ones. Scotland danced through a few of them and so did Wales. Italy had their fun scoring three tries and Teddy Thomas scored a brilliant effort that almost ended the Irish Grand Slam dream in the first round. And they have all found joy out wide against the men in green.

Andy Farrell has constructed a rugby league defence. The flaw with this type of defence in union is that it assumes all players are as fast and as effective at the breakdown as each other.

Inevitably this leads to mismatches simply because union phase play doesn’t allow players to jump back to their feet as they can in league; meaning wingers who compete for the ball come ruck time leave props and lock-forwards covering the wide channels.

Additionally, league defensive lines demand equal spacing between defenders and functions under the assumption each player possesses comparable speed; this is also not the case in union.

Take Huw Jones and his break on 28 minutes in Dublin. It came from a kick to touch by Ireland that was taken quickly by Finn Russell. Naturally the faster players had chased the kick while the slower players fanned across the pitch forming an evenly spaced defensive line.

From the stands it looked as if Ireland had all avenues covered, but because Scotland could move the ball in two accurate passes across the width of the field it meant Huw Jones faced players wearing 2, 4, 3 and 1, giving him an inordinate amount of time to assess the situation and make the break.

In contrast, Finn Russell, who took the quick line-out, faced Conor Murray, Bundee Aki, Dan Leavy, and Peter O’Mahony, who barely gave him time to pass. The rest of Ireland’s pace players were stood ready to receive the return kick.

Clearly, Ireland need to distribute their defenders more effectively with forwards grouping closer to the contact area to avoid future mismatches like this.

Advantage: England +5

England’s selections
England’s team sheet suggests they are aiming for a structured game.

England have missed Ben Youngs more than any of their injured players. With Richard Wigglesworth they will aim to replicate the injured scrum-half’s tactical kicking.

Wigglesworth’s primary goal will be securing field position by either kicking for touch or launching precise up and unders with a strong chase from James Haskell, Sam Simmonds and the English wingers.

This is a conservative team that will play field position and look to score from set pieces. They will also want to push Ireland back into their 22 and force them to kick their way out.

If this happens the Irish defence is vulnerable to a kick return that changes the point of attack quickly. Expect to see Owen Farrell on Anthony Watson’s shoulder when he takes Irish clearing kicks.

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Otherwise, this will be an operation in squeezing the opposition. Whether England can squeeze an opposition that has a 98 per cent success rate on ruck completion is another question. That stat means Ireland, on average, only lose a ruck after 29 phases.

England are currently functioning on a 95 per cent ruck completion rate, which means they struggle to complete 20 phases without losing the ball.

Is this the right selection and by implication the right set of tactics for this game? With the return of George Kruis and James Haskell it suggests Jones is reaching into the past for some comfort but the return of Haskell and Kyle Sinckler is not going to help a penalty count that is already averaging 12 a game. In comparison, Ireland average only 6 penalties a game.

I suspect playing the game in this way will play to the strengths of the Irish pack and Conor Murray.

Advantage: Ireland +3

Irish maul
The Irish maul is strong, very strong. If England give away penalties, which they will, and Ireland kick to the corners then they will score at least one try from their rolling maul.

Advantage: Ireland +7

History is on England’s side
I’m not really one for looking for historic trends to determine what happens next in rugby but, and this is a big ‘but’, the parallels to last year’s tournament are uncanny.

Ireland lost two games last year before the final round by a combined deficit of 18 points. England have lost two games this year before the final round by a combined deficit of 18 points.

England won the championship last year by the fourth round because of a try at the death in Cardiff.

Ireland won the championship this year by the fourth round because of a drop-goal at the death in Paris.

Winning away in the Six Nations is bloody hard, so hard in fact that if a team can do it anywhere other than Rome then they win the whole thing.

This weekend it is Ireland who have to go away. Taking this fact into consideration Eddie Jones’s tactics of squeezing Ireland don’t look so misplaced when coupled with the home crowd and the pressure of a potential grand slam.

Ireland will need nerves of steel to see this one out. While Jones is clearly betting the farm on Ireland making a mistake.

Advantage England +7

Jonathon Sexton vs Owen Farrell
Simple question this week; who is better?

Sexton’s passing is sublime but so is Farrell’s.

Farrell’s kicking is spot on but so can Sexton’s when the pressure is on.

They both have a temper and they are both supremely competitive.

Sexton is in the middle of a renaissance season. His form for Leinster is commanding. His form for Ireland is match-winning.

In comparison, Farrell is having the toughest season of his career. Things are not clicking at Saracens and England are losing for the first time in the Eddie Jones era. Can Farrell come out and perform as Sexton has done in the past? Can he prove himself to be world class?

With this in mind the question actually becomes can Farrell be as good as Sexton and I think the answer will be yes.

He has the power and the passing accuracy to take advantage of that weakness in the Irish defence. He can unleash England’s pace out wide and he can win this game for England.

However, Sexton can also win this game for Ireland, as he has done many times before.

I feel whoever has the better game will be on the winning side.

Advantage: Even

And the result…

Final score*: England 12 Ireland 10

*According to random stats taken out of context, half-baked observations, and feelings of the gut variety.

One thing is for sure though, if Ireland win they will be deserving Grand Slam Champions, and they will have done it the hardest way.

Who doesn’t want to see that?