Crows set to soar in 2018

Having been battered and humiliated by Richmond on the AFL’s biggest stage, the Crows will come out on Friday night with an added determination to right the wrongs of 2017.

Despite being 11 points up at the first change, Don Pyke’s side kicked just four goals for the remainder of the grand final, ultimately losing by 48 points on a sombre day for the club.

The torrid display was reflected in the contested possession count, with the Tigers accumulating 30 more across the four quarters. Given that the Crows won just three form eight games (37.5%) in which they lost the contested ball count, it’s barely surprising that the result didn’t go their way.

Adelaide’s struggle to win matches when they are beaten at the contest, and a comparison against the other top-four sides in 2017 reflects this.

All four sides won the majority of games in which they won the contested possession count (Adelaide 80%, Richmond 90.91%, Greater Western Sydney 68.75%, and Geelong 85.71%), however the results when losing the contested ball are more telling.

The Tigers won 57.14 per cent of matches in which they lost the contested ball in 2017, and the Giants 44.44 per cent. The Cats were similar to the Crows, winning 36.36 per cent.

So while all four sides unsurprisingly benefit greatly from winning the contested ball, for Adelaide and Geelong, it holds extra importance.

The Crows already have quality contested ball winners in Rory Sloane (54% of possessions contested – same as Joel Selwood), Brad Crouch (45%), Richard Douglas (45%), and Matt Crouch (41%), but the recruitment of Bryce Gibbs (38%), and Sam Gibson (31%) bolster this talent.

On the seven occasions that Adelaide lost last season, they relied too heavily on Sloane and the Crouch brothers. In fact, the star trifecta averaged 85 disposals between them last season, and averaged a combined 87 disposals is losing games.

It was the same story in the grand final. In fact, the trio accumulated exactly 87 disposals between them that day.

AAP Image/Julian Smith

In short, against quality opposition sides that were stronger at the contest, they relied too heavily on their three major ball winners. While the star trio held their own, the contested ball count would ultimately be lost due to a lack of assistance.

But now, with Gibbs and Gibson at their disposal, Adelaide will no longer rely upon the three. In the space of one trade period, they have gone from having a midfield that lacked depth, to having one that can match any in the competition. As such, they will back themselves to win the contested ball more often than not, and in all likelihood will improve the 37.5 per cent statistic.

Last season, Adelaide was the mirror image of Collingwood; a plethora of talls, and a slightly lacking midfield. The Pies had remarkable midfield depth, and still do, with Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom, Taylor Adams, Tom Phillips, and Jack Crisp all averaging over 20 disposals per match last season.

The weakness at Collingwood remains the lack of talls, with Darcy Moore, Mason Cox, Brayden Maynard, and Ben Reid all shouldering significant responsibility. Clearly, a lack of experienced tall options is more costly than a midfield lacking depth.

This may sound strange, given the Tigers won a premiership last year with just one tall forward, but the key difference is that Richmond had quality key position defenders in Alex Rance and David Astbury. Irrespectively, Adelaide now boast a strong contingent of quality key position players and midfielders.

While the Crows have patched up their minor flaw from last season, it remains to be seen how they’ll deal with the absence of Jake Lever (Melbourne), Charlie Cameron (Brisbane), and Brodie Smith (injury). However, early indications suggest they’ll cope well.

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Tom Doedee had an impressive JLT series, and looks set to fill Lever’s shoes, with Andy Otten, and Alex Keath also capable of playing the key defensive role alongside Daniel Talia.

While Smith will be missed, Curtly Hampton averaged 16 disposals in the JLT series, and the pacey defender may benefit from his teammate’s absence.

Wayne Milera missed the pre-season series with knee tendonitis, but still looks the most likely to fill Cameron’s role. Taken at Pick 11 in the 2015 draft, Milera has 24 matches under his belt, and Cameron’s departure will likely allow him more game time.

Racking up one win and one loss in pre-season, the Crows developed useful depth players, with Darcy Fogarty, Lachlan Murphy, and Cameron Ellis-Yolmen all impressing at various stages.

While the absentees will be missed, Adelaide look well placed to cover their losses, and have already fixed the problem of midfield depth.

Even with Taylor Walker and Brad Crouch under injury clouds, the Bombers will have a tough assignment on Friday night, because Adelaide look like a force to be reckoned with in 2018.