By any measure, Kevin Muscat is still an apprentice in his chosen trade. Melbourne Victory remains the one and only team where he has worked as a coach, with four years as an assistant to four different managers preceding his elevation to head coach as Ange Postecoglou’s successor.
Despite this relative inexperience, Muscat guided the team to a premiership-championship double in his first full season, and an admirable second place finish behind history-makers Sydney FC in 2016-17.
There is, therefore, on paper sound logic behind the Victory’s decision to extend his contract for another two seasons.
Perhaps one of Muscat’s great achievements has been the stabilisation of the club. It is easy to forget, as aforementioned, that prior to his appointment the club moved quickly between several coaches and playing styles. Postecoglou, for example, was the successor to Jim Magilton, and it is hard to think of two coaches more ideologically opposed.
The Muscat years, by contrast, have been settled. The club has a stable behind-the-scenes infrastructure, a clear identity and are financially secure. Part of this can be linked to the coach’s ability to organise his staff and players – a skill evident both on and off the pitch.
The Victory have a clear playing style. They are aggressive pressers, able to smother teams high up the pitch, and energetic counter-attackers. Four of their five goals in their last game against the Mariners, for example, came from five passes or fewer, with the fifth goal resulting from six passes.
The clearest example of the team’s strategy, however, is that dominant 3-0 grand final win in 2015. Sydney FC were suffocated by the Victory’s high energy defensive pressure, and conceded three goals on the counter-attack.
Besart Berisha celebrates a goal for Melbourne. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Off the pitch, the squad also has a defined identity. Muscat clearly prizes competitive players, epitomised by the everpresent Besart Berisha, Leigh Broxham and Carl Valeri. The likes of Kosta Barbarouses, Mark Milligan and Jason Troisi have also been key to the side’s winning mentality and tactical approach in recent years.
Of course, stability can also breed familiarity, and Muscat’s most significant weakness is probably his lack of evolution.
There has been an over-reliance on previous strategy and recruitment, which has not always been effective. The likes of Troisi and Milligan, for example, have not been standouts in their second spells at the club this season, while Berisha and Barbarouses have had downturns in form too. There is also the creeping feeling that Muscat’s constant use of a 4-2-3-1, and his emphasis on dominating transition moments, makes the team slightly predictable in possession.
This is not an issue when the individual quality of Leroy George can blow teams away, as he has on occasion this season, but is evident against well-organised defensive teams such as Sydney FC.
[latest_videos_strip category=”football” name=”Football”]
The Victory’s recent revival, after a dismal six-game winless start to the season, has two plausible explanations.
Firstly, with the Asian Champions League adding to the team’s physical demands at the turn of the New Year, it is likely the squad’s conditioning program was designed to have them peak at this point of the season, coinciding with both the continental travel and the tail-end of the A-League.
Secondly, and more tangibly, has been the addition of Terry Antonis, combined with Rhys Williams’ good form. Both players add a new dimension of play that Muscat has not necessarily had in the past.
Antonis is effective at receiving passes in positions between opposition defenders, able to protect the ball and face forward under pressure. Conversely, he is capable of playing clever forward passes to the feet of Victory’s attackers between the lines. This penetration is in contrast to the more conservative distribution of Valeri, Milligan and Matias Sanchez, who tend to drop in front of defenders into positions where they can receive in more time and space, but less dangerous areas of the pitch.
Similarly, Williams has improved Victory’s playmaking at the back. His superlative assist for Christian Theoharous’ goal against the Mariners was an extreme example – a bending, diagonal ball from one side to the other to release the winger in on-goal. Williams is typically not quite so spectacular, but still effective in simplicity. He can find players positioned between the lines with short forward passes, and is capable of breaking multiple lines with laser-like balls to the feet of Berisha and Troisi.
This passing range is critical, because it means the Victory can play through teams they try to press them high up the pitch, as well as break down those that defend closer to goal.
This raises intriguing questions. Were Williams and Antonis recruited because Muscat recognised these weaknesses in his squad, or simply because they were available? The answer would hint at Muscat’s propensity for evolution, an attribute that will be critical in the next few years.
Intriguingly, the person who seems to have the greatest influence on Muscat as manager, Postecoglou, has stumbled in the past because of his incessant focus on evolving. It is possible, in reaction, Muscat tries to avoid changing things too quickly. There is a fine line between stagnation and progress, however.
Melbourne need to find a balance between natural evolution, and change for the sake of change – something which the reappointment of Muscat, rather than searching for an upgrade, suggests the club is aware of.
Kevin Muscat has great potential as a coach, but he must still develop in his role in order for the Victory to go forward.
Lionheart
Guest
I don't think the MV youth system, or the youth system of any club has produced many players to be honest. A year in the short NYL is hardly a system. The introduction of academies should change that, which is why I asked about the MV academy. Many Roar players (including Doncs & Brown) came through the QAS and/or a specialised high school. Jai Ingham missed the QAS but had a sterling youth career in his two NYL seasons at Roar. That's not to understate the development that clubs do of young players though - it's been a great joy watching the likes of Doncs & Brown, Kosta and others improve in their young days at Roar. There's no suggestion of poaching, either of coaches or players; can't blame any of them, especially quality players like Kosta & Bes for taking up a better offer when their contract's up, or even Ange wanting to return home. But I believe in time, given what some clubs are investing in their academy, player transfer fees will have to be allowed between A League clubs.
Nemesis
Guest
I'm being serious. Which Roar players are at Victory now, or in the past. And, I'm sure I can list the same number of players from other ALeague clubs. Probably list the same number of ex-MV players at Brisbane. Mike Mulvey was coaching MVFC WLeague when he was poached by Brisbane Roar. John Aloisi was coaching MVFC NYL and NPL when he was poached by Brisbane. There was a bloke called Theoklitos who won the Double Twice with MVFC & was did ok for Brisbane.
Lionheart
Guest
Good enough for me? I'm not sure what you mean. Former Roar players at MV - surely you know that Nemesis. Let's not play silly games,
Nemesis
Guest
"The real wonder of the Ange coached Roar sides is that for a couple of years, they were completely immune to teams employing counter-attacking strategies" 2010/11 MVFC 3-0 Roar Roar 2-1 MVFC MVFC 3-3 Roar 2011/12 MVFC 2-2 Roar (in this match MVFC had our GK sent off in the 1st minute; scored twice with 10 men to be leading 2-1. Had another player sent off at 36'. Played with 2 less players for over an hour. Ange's team couldn't beat us ... with 2 extra players Roar 3-1 MVFC Roar 3-2 MVFC So, your observations about Ange's team is not reflected in these 6 matches when MVFC played Brisbane.
Grobbelaar
Roar Guru
You may not realise it, but you are reinforcing my point. Yes, of course that style is found everywhere, because in most leagues you have mid-tier clubs coming up against 2 or 3 big clubs, so of course they are going to implement such a strategy against better equipped sides (note: those 2 or 3 big clubs, generally speaking, are NOT playing that style). But here in Australia, with an even comp, there aren't massive disparities between teams, they are all around the same low level, and apart from the Ange coached Roar teams, every other club has found success playing a stock-standard counter-attacking style (against sides of a similar standard also trying to play the same style). Who manages to counter the best (and makes the least errors) wins. The real wonder of the Ange coached Roar sides, who are without equal in the history of the comp, is that for a couple of years, they were completely immune to teams employing counter-attacking strategies, an absolute testament to Ange and his Roar teams of that era. His Roar teams remain a standout in the history of the A-League, whereas the successful SFC and Victory teams, didn't control games in the same manner (as in possessing the ball for long, long, long stretches). Although I would readily admit to you that I have always preferred the successful Victory sides to the successful SFC sides, which, by and large, have usually been as dull as dishwater.
Nemesis
Guest
You probably don't get the chance, but if you watch a bit of football around the world, you'd find the same style of play is used in every league; from the big leagues of Europe, to the smaller leagues around the world. Football is a simple game of 11 vs 11, on a rectangular pitch around 120m x 80m with an offside law & no use of hands. So there are limited strategies to move the ball from one end to the other & put it in a goal 7m x 2.5m.
Grobbelaar
Roar Guru
Kevin Muscat captained two championship winning teams under Ernie Merrick playing a stock-standard counter-attacking style of football which generally featured two defensive mids, one traditional centre-forward and a smaller, quicker shadow striker. The only time Victory has ever deviated from a tried a true formula was when Hernandez was fit and in-form (which probably lasted less than two seasons), and even then, it was a very small deviation. He has stuck to the same formula as a manager. The success or otherwise of the formula is very much dependent on how disciplined the opposition is. If they are undisciplined, like the Mariners were for large stretches, goals flow, if they stay disciplined, the Victory are stifled with relative ease. Yes, the same could be said of most teams in the A-League, which is unsurprising given the salary cap has a lowest common denominator type of effect.
Nemesis
Guest
The regneration has already commenced. The XI on the pitch when MVFC scored the winner against J-League Champions last week were: Thomas Deng-Donachie-Wiliams-Broxham Antonis-Hope Kosta-Troisi-Theoharous Athiu Nigro who started the match needs to take Broxham's spot & I'd be happy with that XI next season.
Nemesis
Guest
Just out of interest which Brisbane players do you currently watch at MVFC? I only see Donachie & Berisha. MV has got NPL teams u15, u18, u20 & senior. The MVFC youth system has produced - Pasquali - Deng - Nigro - Theoharous - Hope - Waring (scored at u17 World Cup against Germany) Other players who did well at youth level, but didn't kick on: - Katebian - Howard. Pretty sure Nabbout came through MVFC youth. Is that good enough for you?
fadida
Guest
This MV side is neither an "aggressive presser" nor "energetic". One of the biggest challenges for Muscat will be to regenerate this side, cutting a few favourites.
Lionheart
Guest
seriously Nemesis, I've sat watching Donachie and Brown over the years, through their erratic youth days when they got a few minutes to their rather disappointing times when they first made the squad fulltime. They've slowly improved with effort by themselves, from the coaches and the fans. Just two seasons back Brown was mentioned by several commentators as national team material. I personally just find it hard when you can see the hard work by all and the improvement by the player, that suddenly they are playing against you. That's not a criticism of MV or their coach/fans, but more a fact in the small A League. It's given me some respect for MV, all the former Roar players there. A serious question - where is MV at with their football academy?
Nemesis
Guest
"If Corey Brown moves to MV, you’ll have a very Orange backline, and quite a good one too I’d add." I don't rate Corey Brown at all, so I hope he stays at Brisbane. Geria has left the club, so he has nothing to do with the MVFC backline. So what if they played NYL at Brisbane. Means nothing. Brisbane NYL players developed at State based teams, so how far back do you want to go? Geria went to Brisbane NYL from AIS. He went to AIS from Woden Valley SC in Canberra. They had more input in Geria's development than Brisbane NYL. So, Donachie & Berisha. Those are the only 2 players who Muscat decided to recruit after seeing them play for Brisbane.
Lionheart
Guest
so if they came from Roar but played NYL, then they weren't Roar. right. Muscat openly says he loves Roar players for their attitude. They're winners, he says. If Corey Brown moves to MV, you'll have a very Orange backline, and quite a good one too I'd add.
reuster75
Roar Rookie
On the whole I think the extension is a good idea as it will answer once and for all the question of whether Muscat can evolve as a coach, especially when the squad is going to need rebuilding. Also according to Adam Peacock on the fox football podcast the deal is heavilty weighted in Victory's favour should the need arise for either party to move on. If true it indicates that the club is looking to judge him more on his ability to evolve rather than just judging him purely on results. This makes a welcome change because the context in which results are achieved is far more important than the result itself if you want sustained success.
Pauly
Guest
Our performances in Asia have certainly helped Muscat keep his job. Remember we were one missed penalty call away from progressing in 2014, did progress in 2016 and while it's an uphill battle in 2018 are a chance to progress out of arguably a group of death. A stark contrast to getting belted under Merrick in 2011.
Kris
Guest
Connected to the subs point you make is his seeming mistrust of youth. Theoharous in particular completely changed that Kawasaki game - it was like watching two different games. I think a lot of the 'demise' of Muscat as a coach (in many people's opinions) is pretty much one-for-one connected to the demise of Berisha as a match winner. When you insist on playing 1 up top that bloke needs to be pretty handy.
Bob
Guest
Kosta was being written off by many earlier this season, including Nemesis who called for him to be dropped and replaced by Theo which shows people do write off players to soon
Kangajets
Guest
Kosta Barbarouses return to terrific form this season and the recruiting of Leroy Goerge have been impressive.
Nemesis
Guest
Rubbish. List the players Ange recruited when he was coach at MVFC and who were: a) regular starters during the Home & Away season in 2014/15 when Muscat won the Premiership; b) in the Starting XI for the 2015 Grand Final when Muscat won the Championship c) in the Starting XI for the 2015 FFA Cup Final when Muscat won the FFA Cup.
Bob
Guest
Kevin Muscatt has only been successful with Ange's squad.