Can anyone catch the runaway Richmond?

By Ryan Buckland / Expert

The short answer is no. The longer answer is maybe, it’s still early, but you’d be brave to bet against them.

Why are we leading off this week’s Monday column with a 77-point drubbing? Because it says everything that needs to be said about this year’s clear premiership favourite.

Fremantle, one of the many plucky non-finalists from 2017, hung with Richmond for three quarters yesterday (helped by some poor kicking for goal from the Tigers). Through 90-odd minutes of match time, the Dockers managed the margin to 26 points. In the final 30 minutes, it went to 77.

Richmond kicked 52 points to Fremantle’s one in the final quarter. As it was, Richmond held the Dockers to their lowest score under Ross Lyon. Everything the away team did counted for naught, because as they’ve done for the best part of six months Richmond ripped their opponent apart with a burst of furious play.

The Tigers make you play the full length and breadth of the ground, and make you play the full four quarters. This is now abundantly clear. The question for the rest of the competition is can anyone resist this force?

Adelaide did in Round 2, ambushing Richmond with a kamikaze attack on the ball. It gave them the foundation to dominate the wings as they are known to do, and even then the Crows only got over the line by six goals.

Richmond’s next two opponents may shed some light on the question. North Melbourne is playing about as well as even its most ardent fans could have expected, with a back six that – Richmond aside – is working the best of any in the league. North completely shut the Sydney Swans down on Saturday night.

The Tigers had a patchy record at Docklands last season (2-2 with a close loss and a blowout loss, and two five-goal wins) to boot. They’ve opened a sizeable 27-point favourite, suggesting a comfortable Richmond win. We’ll see.

Then comes a trip out west to play the second-on-the-ladder West Coast Eagles in what already looms as the game of the season to date. The Eagles journey to Western Sydney this round, and even if they lose, will likely find themselves in the two seed at the end of Round 8. They play a little like the Crows, and have quickly built Perth Stadium into a formidable home ground.

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Media/Getty Images)

West Coast were as close to untroubled as an aspiring finalist could hope to be against someone from their peer group, although it looks increasingly likely the Eagles sit a tier above the seven or so teams battling it out for spots in the bottom half of the eight.

I was fortunate enough to be at the game, and bar the brief period in the third quarter when Port Adelaide won a clutch of centre clearances, the home crowd was carefree.

Despite losing Luke Shuey to a hamstring injury in the opening minutes, West Coast controlled the middle of the ground for most of the afternoon. Port Adelaide tried in vain to switch the play and reduce the influence of West Coast’s intercepting defenders, but the Eagles’ pressure forced mistakes and as we talked about last week the home team had the pace to make them pay.

From here, West Coast away from home looks as stern a test as Richmond will face until maybe Round 12 away against Port Adelaide. And after that folks, you don’t want to know what Richmond’s fixture looks like.

The Tigers can drop both of their non-Melbourne games between now and Round 16 against the Adelaide Crows (at the MCG), and still be sitting on 12 wins. They have four of their last five at the MCG, broken down the middle with a trip up to the Gold Coast. By then, Richmond will be surely locked in the top eight, likely locked inside the top four given how competitive the competition is below them, and in a position to manage their team for another September campaign.

So, the short answer is no, no one can catch Richmond. We’re done here.

The long answer is maybe, because it’s still early. However, the Tigers are in the box seat with a 6-1 record and gargantuan percentage, impervious home ground advantage and a list so healthy and primed that premiership players are being dropped because their form fell away just a smidge.

‘The field’ is still a better bet than ‘Richmond’ for this year’s premiership. For now. Indeed, you may argue the only reason this remains the case is because Adelaide was able to so comprehensively beat the Tigers. It can be done. But who can do it?

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Each of the current top four has the tools. We know Adelaide can, because they are the team to do it most recently, albeit on their narrower home deck. Hawthorn almost did it, getting closer to the Tigers than anyone else in 2018 to date. West Coast has the next shot.

Through seven games it is clear these are the four best teams in the competition. If Richmond is the standout then West Coast, Adelaide and Hawthorn are the contenders for that title. By the way, these four teams are also the four highest scoring sides per minute of possession in the competition. Kicking efficiency is a wildly overrated statistic; scoring efficiency, it seems, is not.

A little gulf exists between there and fifth place, with everyone down to Port Adelaide in 11th (I know, right) not much more than a great fortnight of football away from heading the peloton.

Melbourne looks the most likely candidate, given its marshmallow fixture over the next few rounds (including yesterday’s comfortable victory over St Kilda). The Cats could also make a leap, particularly if they can handle Collingwood this Sunday, given they face the Bombers, Blues and Suns thereafter.

It puts Essendon, improbably 15th through seven games, in a really difficult position being two wins and 20 points of percentage outside of finals. The bun fight for finals spots is just beginning, and that’s an almighty handicap to overcome. And unfortunately for the Dons, they face Greater Western Sydney, Geelong and Richmond in consecutive weeks after their Round 8 match against Carlton. Ouch.

And for the teams below the Dons, football’s Death is looming over them with his scythe. Brisbane, with its third close loss and razor sharp if inconsistent attacking flair, has a chance to escape his grasp but honestly, it doesn’t matter if they do as far as 2018 is concerned.

Not because they’re so far back from a finals spot. Nah. The gap that matters is the chasm Richmond has opened between it and everyone else.

The Crowd Says:

2018-05-08T11:07:15+00:00

Fairsuckofthesav

Guest


Best of 7 playofds shared between two home grounds used in US for the world series, NBA, NHL, in UK FA cup. The point still stands. Suggest you look outside the anomaly in Australia.

2018-05-08T10:57:47+00:00

Fairsuckofthesav

Guest


Au contraire I would love to beat Richmond at the MCG. But the inescapable fact remains that the most important game of the year is played on their home ground which is simply inequitable.

2018-05-08T07:33:39+00:00

Doctor Rotcod

Guest


Just waiting for someone else to offer a little perspective to the big-noting. Fyfe is the best player in the competition at the moment, JMcGovern is a better backman,intercept mark and superior for delivery into F50. Riewoldt's days as Coleman Medallist are a long way back They've lost 16 games to injury this season...the lowest of any team.That is not judgment,coaching or athletic skill.That is pure luck. I'm not wishing injury on them,but statistically they're six sigmas

2018-05-08T06:36:29+00:00

Harsh Truth Harry

Roar Rookie


Let alone having the Crows coach on the Richmond payroll! Fair dinks not one bloke in here can name me a single move Pyke made. Can you believe that? watching a GF slip away and failing to make a single move? Fact is Matty one flag in 37 years deserves no respect, shame yes, respect no.

2018-05-08T06:34:03+00:00

Harsh Truth Harry

Roar Rookie


Hey Neil I bet you enjoyed those years between being a 14 year old boy and turning 51 bloke! 37 years as the worst side in the competition is not excused by one lucky flag where you played all your games at home then had Don Pyke put in the worst coaching performance in AFL grand final history to hand you the flag! 37 years maaaaatttee that's disgraceful. I mean bloke you went through all your 20's, 30's and 40's without a flag champ! Bahahahhhbahhhahhaaa! Beep! Round two to the big H!

2018-05-08T05:33:05+00:00

Stuart

Guest


I don't know whether you listen to what players say on the telly and radio. I don't know how many times I have heard Richmond players say, "We're not the most talented list in the competition." It's the effort they put in and the belief they have in each other. That's what they put their success down to.

2018-05-08T05:32:18+00:00

Stuart

Guest


I don't know whether you listen to what players say on the telly and radio. I don't know how many times I have heard Richmond players say, "We're not the most talented list in the competition." It's the effort they put in and the belief they have in each other. That's what they put their success down to.

2018-05-08T05:23:14+00:00

Stuart

Guest


Over a round 8 victory? Doesn't take much for you does it. Perhaps you'll stop partying when the next team brings you back down to earth Josh.

2018-05-08T05:22:35+00:00

Stuart

Guest


Over a round 8 victory? Doesn't take much for you does it. Perhaps you'll stop partying when the next team brings you back down to earth Josh.

2018-05-08T04:49:17+00:00

Stuart

Guest


Superstitious garbage. Kiss of death? Some sort of voodoo phenomenon?

2018-05-08T04:07:49+00:00

Peppsy

Roar Guru


They did nearly in 2015 when sportsbet paid out for Hawthorn like halfway through the season

2018-05-08T02:17:06+00:00

Reservoir Animal

Guest


The problem is that people like you will always find some way to illegitimise a premiership they didn't want to see happen, regardless of venue or ladder qualification. Some people argue that every VFL premiership from 1981-1989 was illegitimate because of the player payment and transfer rules in place then, even though those rules were voted on by all 12 clubs and 7 of those flags were won by the team who finished top that year. Others say West Coast should have their 2006 cup taken off them despite finishing top and having to travel across the country for the GF, others argue Geelong should lose their three cups because of Stephen Dank. And then there were the Swans' flags won under the massive shadow of COLA. Give us your own exhaustive views on what is or isn't legitimate. Otherwise stop using the term.

2018-05-08T01:13:26+00:00

Kris

Guest


When you recruit players with a history of injury (Ablett, Henderson, Cockatoo) or retain players with a history of injury (Menzel, McCarthy, Parfitt) you can hardly cry foul on that front. Richmond had their time with Grimes and Astbury seemingly out for years. And remember they are playing one short with Griffiths retirement. Last week they were without Rioli, Grigg, B.Ellis and Cotchin. Good teams tend to cover their misses.

2018-05-08T01:01:57+00:00

Kris

Guest


Had the WA government / Domain Stadium offered double the money to the AFL that the Vic Government/MCG did the game would be in Perth.

2018-05-08T00:40:06+00:00

Mattyb

Guest


I think if the tigers can legitimately win this years premiership they'll get the respect their fans crave so desperately. Big difference between earning something and being gifted it because of where your from.

2018-05-08T00:19:20+00:00

I ate pies

Guest


Nice deduction. Yes I have been to Perth a few times on mining related trips. What struck me the most was going to a hotel in summer and seeing a replay of an old Freo game on the TV in in the foyer! It's just as bad, actually worse, in South Australia. In WA they're unaware of the rest of the world; in SA they're obsessed with Victoria. It's a real inferiority complex there.

2018-05-07T22:49:05+00:00

Jack T

Guest


I wish there was a like button.

2018-05-07T22:38:21+00:00

Captain Obvious

Guest


April Fools Day was last month. Geelong are very average.

2018-05-07T22:21:55+00:00

The Brazilian

Roar Rookie


Gotta laugh at the disrespect, TL. I can picture the late and great Teddy Whitten barracking hard for the Tiges in last year's GF. Stick it up 'em!

2018-05-07T21:59:07+00:00

The Brazilian

Roar Rookie


And THAT, is why Victorians don't loathe the Eagles like we do the Crows or Port. (Freo are a non factor) 3 out of 6 is an awesome result. Belief!? Seems the South Aussies just don't have it preferring to play the 'poor us' card.

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