Germany's exit - and Mexico's near-miss - has cracked the World Cup wide open

Last night’s incredible collection of Group F matches, culminating in Germany’s stunning exit from the 2018 FIFA World Cup, has not only left the defending champs in the same basket as the Socceroos but split the tournament wide open.

Saying there will be one weak and one strong half of the draw doesn’t even do it justice.

Argentina’s struggles had already weakened the one half of the knockout matches, but with Mexico finishing as Group F runners-up and Germany crashing out entirely, it means the eight sides left in what we’ll call the second half of the draw are as follows:

Spain, Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, the loser of England-Belgium and one of either Japan, Senegal and Colombia.

Spain and Belgium/England aside, that’s piss weak.

Of those sides, only Spain and England have won the World Cup. Sweden has a runners-up effort on home soil in 1958, while Croatia had a third-place finish in 1998. Russia and Belgium finished fourth in 1966 and 1986 respectively, but none of the other teams in that group have ever been past the quarter-finals.

That is stunning. Two of those sides will play in the semi-final and one will move all the way to the final of the biggest sporting event in the world.

(Photo by Andrey Bogunov/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

To make those sides’ collective weakness all the more apparent, the other side of the draw is loaded. France, Argentina, Uruguay, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico, the winner of Belgium and England and of course, one of Japan, Senegal and Colombia, with their group being way too close to call heading into the final night of games.

Now, you’d never encourage a team to lose a World Cup match. But if I’m an England supporter, I want to see Jamie Vardy in goal, Phil Jones on the wing and Danny Welbeck in the centre of defence tonight, and every first XI player sitting on the pine.

With Romelu Lukaku already ruled out of the clash, Belgium are likely to play a second string XI. If the sides settle for a draw, the team with the most cards will find themselves in second place, and the easier side of the draw. Failing that, a team will be drawn out of the hat.

This second side of the draw could be a walk in the park for whoever the eventual loser is, with only Spain and Croatia looming as the other top teams.

But then, Spain fired their manager just a day before the start of the tournament and have been anything but convincing since, although Croatia have been in incredible form, which has seen them record back-to-back-to-back victories in the group stage. That said, they haven’t faced the pressure of a knockout match yet.

As it stands, the round of 16 fixtures will see Spain play hosts Russia – a dangerous encounter for La Roja. Croatia take on Denmark, and you’d expect them to win there, while Sweden play Switzerland. The games tonight decide who plays in the final match.

(PATRICK HERTZOG/AFP/Getty Images)

Provided the favourites get up, the quarter-finals will see Spain play Croatia and Switzerland face England or Belgium. Compared to the other half of the draw, where France would go up against Uruguay – assuming both sides overcome Argentina and Portugal respectively – and Brazil play either England or Belgium, it’s chalk and cheese.

That’s tournament play for you. A few upsets and all of a sudden the whole thing is cracked wide open.

In this case, it’s a gigantic upset. One no one saw coming, but then, maybe we should have. Three of the last four defending champions – France in 2002, Italy in 2010 and Spain in 2014 – didn’t make it out of the group stage, and now Germany joins the list.

The World Cup has already been thrilling with upsets galore, but the next fortnight promises to be something else.

Who wins the entire thing remains anyone’s guess, but it’s clear a few sides have been gifted a generous leg-up thanks to the way the draw’s panned out.