You are the coach and your team is trailing on the scoreboard about 50 minutes into a tough Test match, when you get your first decent attacking opportunity in quite a while from an opposition penalty and subsequent attacking line-out near their try line.
You have the biggest ball-running freak of a tighthead prop, perhaps ever to play rugby, on the bench and your veteran tighthead Sekope Kepu is tiring. So clearly you substitute them to improve your odds of scoring quickly, right?
That is what I would have thought, but that is not what Michael Cheika did during the final Test match against Ireland this year – he left Taniela Tupou on the bench for another couple of minutes.
The Wallabies did score off that line-out, but in a game that came down the wire, putting the Tongan Thor on to punch across the line could only have improved the odds of a quick score, which was vital when the Wallabies were chasing the clock.
This observation is not intended to be a prelude to another Cheika-bashing article, because he did well as a coach in the Ireland series.
After the last couple of years of Wallabies disappointments and debacles, Cheika has clearly had a good, hard think about the way he coaches over the off-season and has improved.
Notable changes are that he has allowed the Wallabies to develop a more comprehensive kicking game, while he previously stubbornly insisted on ball in hand at all costs, which was losing them games.
The Wallabies’ kicking game against Ireland was far from perfect, but there was a fair bit of promise which will only be built on when the Rugby Championship comes around.
Cheika is also noticeably calmer in the way that he interacts with the team and the media, which can be a good thing as his over-the-top displays of emotion from previous years could only be counterproductive to getting clear messages across.
However, Cheika has improvements left in his game too and the Kepu and Tupou substitution example highlights one of them.
(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
He does not appear to think entirely clearly in the heat of the moment, when he is responsible for making critical substitution decisions and communicating key messages to the team.
This means that he is not enabling his team to respond in the best way possible to opportunities like in the example above, or when something goes wrong.
An example of where something has gone wrong in a game that needed correct, decisive action from Cheika, was when Matt Giteau was concussed in the 27th minute during the World Cup final in 2015.
Cheika had Kurtley Beale and Matt Toomua on the bench and chose to substitute on Beale, despite the fact that Giteau was the Wallabies defensive linchpin and that before Beale’s improvement in defence post-World Cup, Toomua was a far better defender.
The subsequent two tries both involved defensive errors by Beale and it was game, set, match to the All Blacks.
Would the Wallabies have won had Cheika sent on Toomua?
Probably not given that they were playing arguably the finest rugby team ever assembled, but I believe Cheika’s decision reduced the odds of an upset.
It is interesting to compare Cheika’s decision to substitute players according to the pecking order with All Blacks coach Steve Hansen’s decision to substitute Sonny-Bill Williams for Conrad Smith in the second half.
Williams’ power immediately proved decisive, opening up the Wallabies’ defence and putting Ma’aa Nonu through a game for a decisive try.
The comparison highlights the differences between the conduct of the two coaches during games, Hanson’s calm demeanour allows him to keep a clear head and make good decisions, while Cheika’s passion does not.
That sort of passion is great from fans, but Cheika is the coach and needs to continue working on toning it down so he can effectively guide his team at critical moments.
Finally, it is clear that the competition in the upcoming World Cup is going to be closer than any Cup since at least 2007.
The All Blacks are still the best in the World but since key players from their golden generation have retired, they have more off days and less depth than they used to.
Behind them, any of Ireland, England, South Africa and Australia could cause an upset and knock them out of the competition, and then who gets the silverware will come down to how teams play on the day.
This highlights the importance of Cheika continuing to look for these sorts of marginal improvements, because they have a chance at leading to glory.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
Cheika has said he is stepping down unless he wins the World Cup, so you probably don’t need to worry about four more years of him. I won’t write him off though, he surprised us in 2015 and can do it again.
CJ
Guest
Yes, as to the 2007 situation with Henry, the ABs lost one game against a French team that no one could have beaten that day. But even then, his job was on the line against Robbie Deans. If, as I understand, if Deans was willing to adopt a more collective approach to his management style, then Henry was gone. And had Henry not done anything other than a stellar job in the years following 2007, he would not have lasted till 2011. Henry transformed the game, getting forwards to play like backs. And as for Richie McCaw, the greatest Rugby player of all time IMO, and one of the best captains, it is not a relevant analogy. No one in their right mind would have dropped McCaw. But the problem goes deeper than coach and captain. The ARU is not effective; hence the lack of real talent coming through in key positions. Players like the Tongan Thor basically came here as a fluke. But mediocrity is accepted, so things don't get better. However, not only is poor performance across the board accepted, but there is no actual benchmark identified as to what is acceptable.
Reality Check
Guest
Ok, I do think it is time to chop Michael Cheika. We have seen no improvement in Wallaby results.Ultimately that is the yardstick a coach is held accountable to .The Wallabies cannot afford another 4 years of Cheika.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
I mean that chopping and changing staff, as CJ suggested, isn’t always the best approach to this improving team performance.
piru
Roar Rookie
Not really, more annoying - who do you think you're fooling?
Orange Fuhrer
Guest
Try to keep up Piru. It`s not that difficult.
piru
Roar Rookie
Well - you haven't provided your source, mine was Rugby Australia, so I wouldn't get too carried away. I hadn't bothered correcting you because you were backing me up (even though you thought you were being clever) Can you stop with the different names? It's juvenile
Orange Fuhrer
Guest
Good to see you`ve sort of owned up that you were incorrect Piru. That`s one tick in your box. 99 more ticks to go.
piru
Roar Rookie
ok mate heavier = lighter, Shall we alert the astrophysicists at NASA, this could be important news?!
Reality Check
Guest
^ Rhys ,dunno what you mean by that ? Are you saying the Wallabies will win the 2019 RWC ?
Orange Fuhrer
Guest
Unfortunate wording jimbo81, but you are dead right.
JP
Guest
CJ We have all those players available right now, but Chieka refuses to pick them. He prefers the Hoopers Hanigans and Foleys to the more competent players.
Orange Fuhrer
Guest
Why are you laughing ? Anyway, myself and Reality Check didn`t mention Beale anywhere Piru. You did. As per normal you are wrong " again" ..You said Meakes is 94kg and 187cm,haha wrong.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
“One of the reasons the Wallabies lose so often is that losing is now acceptable. Otherwise, more heads would roll more often, and more capable people would take their place, until there was change for the better.” Yet that is exactly the opposite approach that the All Blacks used to turn around their 2007 RWC humiliation, to win the RWC for the first time in 24 years in 2011. They accepted that the coach and captain they had in 2007 were the best available, but that their best wasn’t good enough, so they backed them for the next four years to become better. And it worked.
Baz
Guest
I am actually a Cheika fan. I like him as a person and a coach. But every second he spends inside the coaching box protesting a refereeing decision is simply wasted mental energy and a distraction. The opposition also feed of it.
CJ
Guest
One of the reasons the Wallabies lose so often is that losing is now acceptable. Otherwise, more heads would roll more often, and more capable people would take their place, until there was change for the better. Sadly, if the team loses for long enough, then expectations are lowered and the culture of mediocrity continues. Saw a fascinating episode of 60 Minutes recently. It was about an Argentinian polo player who has been ranked number 1 in the world for the last 22 years. Anyway, if you can believe this, he has cloned about ten or so versions of his best ever horse (a mare which was apparently also the best of all time) and uses them not only as starters but as subs during games. Not surprisingly, despite being aged 42 he still captains his team to win the world championships. Anyway, of course, anyone with a sense of fair play would be of the view that whoever is the regulator should ban this practice, but you got to hand it to this character - he's not prepared to accept 2nd place!
Rhys Bosley
Guest
Haven’t heard of him but I’m happy to have the second best :-)
Rhys Bosley
Guest
Thanks Baz and your theory about training vs in-game coaches resonates with me when it comes to Cheika. He is good at maintaining team spirit and goid relationships with his players, is motivational, recruits and delegates well, is prepared to reflect on how the team performs and innovative accordingly. It is just that when he gets closer to the game his natural emotion appears to overwhelm good decision making and as you say, can get to the team. He is getting better at that side of things though and it is that willingness to develop personally that is one of the things I like about him.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
Agree on Beale Fionn, I was never a fan but I am glad he has come right.
Ruckin Oaf
Guest
Lynagh also had the likes of Horan, Little, Herbert etc running outside him,