Results either side of the June international window has breathed new life into the Super Rugby finals race, as assumptions and guesstimates from not that long ago suddenly look more than a bit shaky.
The Australian and South African conferences now have just one win – or less – separating the top two teams.
Teams previously thought well out of the race are well and truly back in it, and teams assumed to be on track for a finals appearance now have a bit of work to do.
As it stands right now (and assuming my maths is right), only two teams will definitely make the finals: the Crusaders can’t finish any lower than fourth overall and will have a home final in week one of the playoffs one way or the other.
The Hurricanes also can’t finish any lower than eighth overall.
Nine other teams can finish in the remaining six playoff positions, and with anywhere between second and eighth overall still very much in play with two rounds to play. So much for the top eight looking settled.
Crusaders – currently 1st overall + 1st in NZ: 54 points, 12 wins
To come: Highlanders and Blues; both at home in Christchurch.
One win in their remaining two games will probably be enough for the 2017 champion Crusaders to claim top spot overall, giving them all the home ground advantages possible for a back-to-back title defence.
It would be tempting to write the Highlanders off after their showing in Suva on Saturday, but we all know the South Island derbies have a habit of ignoring form. Still, I can’t see the Crusaders dropping both remaining games that would see them surrendering a well-earned minor premiership.
Lions – currently 2nd overall + 1st in RSA: 41 points, 8 wins
To come: A bye this weekend, followed by the Bulls at home in Johannesburg.
Where once the Lions looked certain of a home final not that long ago, suddenly they’re on very, very shaky ground. They can still claim the South African conference, and a couple of Waratahs losses in addition would allow them to hold onto second. But other results conspiring against them could see them drop out of the eight altogether.
At least their equation is simple, as far as the conference goes: with no points possible this weekend, they simply must beat the Bulls in Round 19, and hope the Jaguares don’t win their remaining games and overtake them.
The Lions have a big bonus point advantage over the Jaguares, but the Argentineans will go ahead with a better win record should they finish equal on points.
On that point, a reminder of the Super Rugby tie-breaking process: Should teams finish equal on points, the most wins are the first step; then points differential; then most tries scored, and then the differential between tries scored and tries conceded. If the teams are still locked together after all that, it literally comes down to a coin toss.
Waratahs – currently 3rd overall + 1st in AUS: 39 points, 8 wins
To come: homes games in Sydney against the Sunwolves and Brumbies.
If the ‘Tahs edge close to securing the Australian conference this weekend coming, those two Kurtley Beale and Bernard Foley intercepts in Melbourne on Friday night will only take on more significance.
Having beaten the Rebels, and the Lions losing to the Sharks, two wins from their remaining games will be enough for the Waratahs to secure second spot and home ground advantage for the finals. Take no points out of either remaining games, however, and other results could see them miss the finals completely.
In short, get there, ‘Tahs fans. Your team needs you in numbers.
Hurricanes – currently 4th overall + 2nd in NZ: 45 points, 10 wins
To come: Blues at home in Wellington this weekend, then the Chiefs in Hamilton.
They will play finals in 2018, but it really feels like the ‘Canes have lost form in three successive losses. The loss to the Brumbies leaves them within arm’s reach of both the Chiefs and Highlanders, meaning a home final still needs to be earned.
But they can still top the NZ conference and finish first overall if the Crusaders lose both remaining games, so that should be motivation enough. Lose both games themselves, though, and other results could drop them as low as eighth.
Chiefs– currently 5th overall + 3rd in NZ: 41 points, 9 wins
To come: Brumbies and Hurricanes, both at home in Hamilton.
They were super impressive in Suva, the Chiefs, and now they have a bit more control of their destiny. Win both remaining games, and they can claim a home final; lose both, and the freefall could be fatal for 2018.
Their final match against the Hurricanes could well decide who finishes as the top wildcard.
Highlanders – currently 6th overall + 4th in NZ: 40 points, 9 wins
To come: the Crusaders in Christchurch, followed by the Rebels at home in Dunedin.
They weren’t so impressive in Suva, the Highlanders. But at least the loss hasn’t hurt them too much; like the Chiefs two wins and other results could lift them into the top wildcard place, but equally, they could also miss the top eight entirely with no further competition points and teams below them winning everything.
Jaguares – currently 7th overall + 2nd in RSA: 38 points, 9 wins
To come: one last mini-tour – the Bulls in Pretoria and the Sharks in Durban.
They didn’t just run in the bottom half of the competition for the first half of the season, they ran in the bottom three. But by Round 11, they were in a wildcard spot and now, less than a win behind the Lions, they can take the South African conference lead with a win over the Bulls at Loftus this weekend. What a ride it’s been.
Though two losses and other results could bundle them out of the playoffs completely, topping the conference and being able to play a final in Buenos Aires could make them that much harder to beat again.
Rebels – currently 8th overall + 2nd in AUS: 35 points, 7 wins
To come: away games against the Reds in Brisbane, and the Highlanders in Dunedin.
Well, they lost a game they really should have won on Friday night, but the Rebels remain in the top eight currently, and with a three-point gap over the Sharks behind them. Though their equation isn’t quite as easy as the Jaguares, the Rebels can also top the conference if they start winning and the Waratahs start dropping games (though the ‘Tahs do have one more win currently).
Lose even just one game, however, and they run the risk of being overtaken by the Sharks.
Sharks – currently 9th overall + 3rd in RSA: 32 points, 6 wins
To come: the Stormers in Cape Town, and the Jaguares at home in Durban.
Just have to win both games, first and foremost. Two wins, some bonus points, and other results could see them finish as high as fifth, but in reality, it’s the Jaguares and Rebels firmly in their sights. They were really impressive closing down the Lions, but the Sharks have also been really hot and cold this season.
It’s entirely up to them.
Brumbies – currently 10th overall + 3rd in AU: 29 points, 6 wins
To come: Chiefs in Hamilton, then the return leg of the Hume Highway derby against the Waratahs in Sydney.
I’d put the line through the Brumbies back in Part 1 of The Run Home, you might recall, but suddenly, somehow, they’re back in with a chance, albeit a faint one at that. It’s knockout rugby for the Brumbies now. Keep winning and they might play finals if teams above them lose everything; lose, and they’re done.
Bulls – currently 11th overall + 4th in RSA: 25 points, 5 wins
To come: Jaguares at home in Pretoria, followed by the Lions down the highway in Johannesburg.
It’s purely mathematical for the Bulls. They need the Rebels and Sharks to lose both games, the Brumbies to drop out of the race, and then need to make up a differential gap (currently 43 points) to the Rebels, just so that they could take the final wildcard on a count-back.
Good luck with that…
Stormers – currently 12th overall + 5th in RSA: 25 points, 5 wins
To come: Sharks at home in Cape Town, then a Round 19 bye.
Can’t happen. The loss to the Jaguares means the final round bye kills off any chance of even just drawing level with the eighth-placed Rebels. They’re done for 2018.
The top eight could easily be decided this weekend, but at the very least you would expect the field to be thinned somewhat. But, given the results we saw in Round 17 on the weekend, we should probably be expecting the unexpected.
It’s not great for tips, but it is creating a really interesting finish to the season.
Barney
Roar Rookie
Not at all, just need to find solutions that is best for every country.
Ex force fan
Guest
Barney with this line of thought we should really stop to find solutions to problems....
JRVJ
Guest
1. As I admitted, I had not come across L'Equipe's inclusion in their Top 14 dream side. 2. I had followed Bosch's career, mainly through Paul Tait's feeder feed and his American Rugby news, and it always seemed strange to me that a hooker would be used at flanker, especially if he is playing at such an elite level. (As an attorney and a skeptic, I am painfully aware of the so-called Authority Fallacy). But that’s it. I’m signing off on this exchange, since I don’t think there’s much else to say.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
My point was that F. Bosh was name in the dream team of Top 14 playing in the hooker position period. I could care less if he played in other positions. We were talking about hookers and imo he should be one of the trhee hookers , if they take three, for Los Pumas in the RWC.
JRVJ
Guest
What's my point? I don't really have a point, other that I also work from sources. "Right back at you, kid" is a very playful expression in American English. Perhaps you're not familiar with it, but it is decidedly not an insult.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
JRVC , what is your point? I never challenged what you wrote, however you did challenge what I wrote and I answer with the fact. Rigth back to me? What do you mean?
JRVJ
Guest
Right back at you, kid! http://www.americasrugbynews.com/2018/04/08/facundo-bosch-scores-in-man-of-the-match-performance-for-agen/
Nobrain
Roar Guru
I would never write sonething I could not confirm. http://www.americasrugbynews.com/2018/06/05/bosch-named-in-top-14-dream-team/ ?
JRVJ
Guest
Nobes, You surely followed F. Bosch more than I did, as I hadn't realized that he'd been named in L'Equipe's team of the Top 14. It does seem odd, however, considering Agen used him as an Openside Flanker on at least one occasion, though (against Oyonnax in early April).
No Chance
Guest
The Reds winning on their day? Whatha? They are hopeless. Have you ever looked at the super rugby table Jacko ? Even had a glimpse at it?
Orange Fuhrer
Guest
You`d believe anything wouldn't you Jacko if it was made in New Zulland.You are probably right, the REDS will finish second last. " QLD Reds will finish ( second last ) Thorn sacked immediately ". Lock it in .Fixed it for you.
Bakkies
Guest
Swain is behind three Wallabies who are contracted long term and a potential one who also has a multi season deal (Richie Arnold). Add Ben Hyne to that list.
Brett McKay
Expert
Oh, the irony... :roll:
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Yes. He is done for the year.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
You have a great hooker in Bosch . He was name the best in that position in TOP 14.
Fionn
Guest
Bakkies, why do you think Darcy Swain is moving on? That looks like a pretty reasonable list for the most part, although I did wonder if Enever or Richie Arnold might try and move to the Rebels or Waratahs where they would probably get more game time.
Bigtree Smallaxe
Guest
Quarmichael? ??
Barney
Roar Rookie
Isa is injured for the season?
JRVJ
Guest
There's a fairly big, long running brouhaha in Argentina about this, but it is widely believed that the Pumas will summon Europe based players for the RCh. The question is how many and for what positions. There's some positions were there are excellent options (G. Kodela and Figallo for both Prop positions are the favorites, with Noguera-Paz and Ramiro Herrera being possible second options; Patricio Fernández or Benjamín Urdapilleta at Fly-Half; Mariano Galarza at Lock; Juan Pablo Socino and Marcelo Bosch at Centers; Juan Imhoff and Santiago Cordero at Wing). The most worrisome is Hooker, where Creevy and Montoya are by far Argentina's best at the position, and they already play for the Jags (Facundo Bosch was the 3rd option last year, and he did get some playing time in France this year). My two bits: I suspect the Jags will rest Creevy and Tetaz-Chaparro (the Jags' starting Tight Head Prop) against the Sharks if they've already gotten into the playoffs. I base that on the fact that the 3rd string options at Hooker and Tight Head have been announced as travelling to SA for this mini-tour.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
We probably see some new faces in RCH for Los Pumas and a big rotation depending on far they go in the play off if they make it there. Last week on the bench we saw some unfamiliar players against the Stormers. Nicolas Sanchez is leaving at the end of the year and it is time to look for options that are not clear at the moment.