“You’ve got to take on their weaknesses … and they’ve got significant weaknesses. I’m not going to share them with you now; in 2018 I will,” said England coach Eddie Jones in 2016.
Eddie Jones said in 2016 that the All Blacks have weaknesses. This isn’t cocky to say; all teams have weaknesses. There will always be space on a rugby field no matter who you are. A team can’t have more than 15 men on the field.
However, any weaknesses the All Blacks have are balanced by their strengths. In turn some of New Zealand’s strengths, if they’re not careful, can rapidly turn to weaknesses if the opposition play smart.
The All Blacks know they were vulnerable last year. The big question is: how will they track this season? And can they move towards elusive perfection?
They are the best team in the world by a country mile. This means the chasing pack will be developing new means to target the All Blacks going forward. Such is the position of being first. Certain targets seem to have been discovered.
This is the first article of a series of five, the rest of which will be released in the build-up to the Rugby Championship. As I shall illustrate throughout them, they have weaknesses that teams can target, and target them they will.
More importantly, there are teams out there who are already incorporating tactics in their game plans to target these weaknesses.
(Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Northern Hemisphere shift
Eddie Jones’s England finished a lowly fifth in the Six Nations after back-to-back title-winning years. I’m an Englishman, so I’m a little biased, but I believe this a blip. I don’t believe England are that bad when in form. What we do know is that Eddie Jones had started to play his ‘how to target the All Blacks hand’ in some situations to cement the patterns needed to beat them in the consciousness of his team.
Furthermore, having recently witnessed Leinster’s victory over Saracens, I saw things that I hadn’t seen before. As we will see later, they too have used the same pattern implemented by England in this year’s Six Nations which, as far as I can tell, they had never used before. It’s almost their own ‘how to target the All Blacks hand’ or possibly, to be more precise, Joe Schmidt’s and his insistence for them to hone it at club level.
It’s food for thought. Whatever it is, there has been a shift, and I feel it all goes back to the comment made by Eddie Jones in 2016.
The exciting bit about all of this is that England and Ireland will be playing the All Blacks back-to-back in November. Lets also not forget the Springboks and Wallabies, who both have excellent power runners. These teams will face off against the All Blacks from June until October and all of them have the players and abilities to target the All Blacks in the ways we will go into over this series.
In my observations of the All Blacks there have been moments in certain situations in games when they have been vulnerable. What’s even clearer is that, as Jones started to openly develop his team, he has equipped them with certain dynamics that not only allow them to play in multiple ways but were designed to target these vulnerabilities in the All Blacks.
Jones’s England did not pull off a three-peat of Six Nations titles; however, as mentioned above, they did start to show their hand in their other styles of play.
In this series we will break down where teams will target the All Blacks in attack and where teams should try to nullify them in defence. And let’s be honest, this is easier said than done, but it is a worthwhile exercise. The one thing we don’t know is if the All Blacks have changed this season. We will find out soon enough though.
I need to emphasise that this is a correlation I have seen. These are the areas I have seen where the All Blacks are vulnerable. And I have seen England’s patterns of play vary accordingly to include options to strike these points.
I can’t read Eddie Jones’s mind, but with the patterns he’s used and developed I’ll list the areas where I would target and therefore believe he will target. I will also show which patterns and plays he will use to do it.
(AP Photo/Koji Sasahara, File)
Weakness: fringe and pillar defence
Tactics used for weakness: Brumby mode
In a prior article I stated that England are developing this. I also believe that Leinster showed their hand and are now using it, possibly either inspiration from England. I am of the opinion that Eddie has brought Brumby Mode out of retirement for three purposes:
- to develop a ball in hand game suitable for wet conditions;
- to beat rush defences; and
- to give his England the best chance of beating the All Blacks.
The All Blacks do not like being attacked around the fringes of the ruck, nor do they like multiple players condensed into a singular channel. There are two reasons for this.
- In multi-phase defence their pillar defence (three guards) is spread, be it on the open or blind. They are spread thin. This is sometimes the case even when they’re in their own 22.
- Aaron Smith is often involved in the pillar defence.
They’re set up like this because the All Blacks want to number up comfortably on the defence in their system. As such they are equipped to deal with anything over one pass out quite comfortably. On top of this, the spread line means a pass to the third guard as a receiver on turnover may cut out four to five players, meaning numbers are on for the counter. This is a key part of their attacking game.
Aaron Smith’s place here means he is at the ruck, not only organising the inside defence but ready to take the turnover ball immediately. This allows him to use his greater variety and length of passing to get the ball to the area which will hurt the opposition the most on the counter.
This, however, is where this strength is sat right next to a glaring weakness.
Picture a relentless multi-phase attack with multiple players on the same channel putting defenders on the ground and thereby thinning the line. Heavy forwards are allowed to target Aaron Smith as a defender. Combined with quick ball, the result is attackers running into wide open gaps around the ruck, and making many metres. This is the antithesis of the All Blacks number-up philosophy.
A turnover at this point could prove unbelievably costly to the attacking team.
We have three static examples of their pillar defence. Take note of the spacings.
The first is of the All Blacks against Ireland in Chicago.
The second is All Blacks against Australia in Dunedin last year, a game they won at the last with a piece of Kieran Read/Beauden Barrett magic.
The previous two images are both tries on the same phase. The Wallaby execution was nowhere near Brumby mode speed in the build-up. This is a key flaw in the All Black defensive system and it has been visible for quite some time now.
Example 1: Argentina 2016
This is the combination of fast ball and the targeting of a singular channel. We can see the All Blacks are maintaining their numbers out wide as the defence in one channel is put on the ground and then exploited. Teams will look to target here. Think of your team and think mobile, powerful runners – exceptionally powerful runners.
While said runners are battering down one channel the defence is eventually drawn in. This creates gaps for playmakers with flat alignment on either side of the ruck potentially to put runners through.
Example 2: France 2018
The French, with quick ball, are able to target the All Black fringe. The All Blacks do not often number up from the inside out. We can see Owen Franks does not come in until the carriers run has started, when it’s too late. This is due to the All Blacks defence being set to defend easily in the wide channels, with the fringe often not protected as well. We will see evidence of this later as well in the Australia example.
But the fourth man on the defensive line can very quickly become the second man using this tactic. And due to the All Blacks not coming in, it can lead to the above.
Example 3: Australia 2017
What annoys me about this is that this strategy works, yet teams don’t stick with it; they do it for a couple of phases and then go back to the wide expansive game they believe they need to play to beat the All Blacks rather than being patient. Patience is the key here.
Playing that expansive game on the second phase in this example would lose ground simply because the All Blacks have numbered up well, and by playing that game you’re actually going away from the space. Combining the two is the best option, and that is what the top teams who have done their homework will attempt to do.
This pattern should be a source of momentum for teams playing the All Blacks. Wide-wide play for wide play’s sake is not a source against New Zealand. Play wide, yes, but only after this pattern has exposed glaring holes out wide. If the defence numbers, change the channel and rinse and repeat.
It’s vindicated later in this sequence as shown below.
Less than one minute later Australia scored a try. The ball does not go past the posts to the openside and they kept it on one side of the field. They played straight and even in the 22 exploited the fringes to great effect.
In this sequence you can Ardle see Savea go from being the third man out to being the first and not coming to the correct pillar position. This shows the All Blacks weakness that teams should be looking to exploit and what I believe Eddie Jones has been practising.
Example 4: England ‘Brumby mode’ Six Nations 2018
You will see with the above example that Eddie Jones has started to play his ‘how to target the All Blacks hand’.
Why has Eddie Jones brought this to England? It is two-fold:
- he appreciates that it is a way to target the All Blacks with a view to beating them; and
- he learnt it from its pioneer, the World Cup-winning Rod MacQueen
This pattern has been incorporated into the England game plan to specifically target All Black flaws and, if the England team can get their mojo back, it should play to their strengths.
Again, ask yourself how this would work with your team. Think of the Boks and of France in particular. The likes of Uini Atonio, Guillem Girrado, Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth – imagine these huge brutal forwards quickly recycling and targeting the same point.
If this is executed correctly and patiently, the All Blacks and their pillar defence will almost certainly struggle to cope. With powerful, mobile runners running onto the ball and, most importantly, taking it flat, this can cause mayhem.
In the above example look how flat and fast they take it. The ball is still at the base of the ruck while the England prong is running its line, meaning the fringe players are held in place until the last second.
The fifth example is Leinster in 2018. Leinster used this pattern against Saracens post-Six Nations to great effect. Brumby mode may have been employed by England to use against the All Blacks; however, it has uses against other teams. England’s example was against Wales, and they use it for rush defences. If you employ a rush defence, you cannot rush if the inside is being hit. It checks your line speed as, if the break happens, you are hugely vulnerable due to your push.
Against the Sarries this makes it the perfect strategy to stop their defensive system. We also see in the second ruck Devin Toner shepherding Jamie George past the ruck, allowing more space for Sean Cronin to run into. A nice subtlety that shows their behind-the-scenes development of this pattern. We also see Cian Healy make to grab the ball after Cronin’s run to continue the pattern, but he is stopped by Luke McGrath for a wide move.
In these examples we can see the exact same principles as Brumby mode from the Wallabies of the late 90s and England under Jones revisited. Operating within the ten-metre channel, putting the pillars to ground, attacking the thinning pillars before the defence is ready and playing flat off ten. Rinse and repeat.
The only potential difference between England’s and Leinster’s versions is Leinster alternate between open and blind in their Brumby mode. They hit blind with Johnny Sexton, then open, then blind, then open again. This could be coincidental or it could be a pattern to drag defenders from one side to the other and then hit the undermanned. Rinse and repeat until options are on out wide. If it is a pattern, they must make sure it doesn’t get found out.
Teams will see the spread pillar defence of the All Blacks as a glass window. This pattern, if used properly, can be the sledgehammer to gain momentum.
It is a pattern from 20 years ago, and yet in the right situations it is still as effective as it was then even with the modern advances of defensive systems.
Sentences like that last one are why I love rugby so much.
Kirky
Roar Rookie
Tooly: The best post so far mate and you are of course absolutely correct, in short, ''you have to be up pretty early in the morning'' to beat the All Blacks, as while you're thinking of the next move they are very likely under the posts with ball on ground as a try! The Brumbies in what you guys call the MacQueen era would have been regarded at the time as a Super Rugby Team no less as the principle format in rugby in New Zealand is, Test Rugby, no more, no less, that's the absolute priority, not Provincial Rugby games!
Kirky
Roar Rookie
As a New Zealander I also am an avid and biased Rugby follower, ~ of the All Blacks and always have been for a great number of years, and could I just say that although the Writer of this article has put a great amount of time into the methods needed to combat and beat the All Blacks into this article, we have all heard it so many times over so many years it thus has become a tad wearying, and boring perhaps! Every International Rugby Team on this Planet style their play one way or another to beat the All Blacks, and that has been the case for many, many years, a few have succeeded a very few times, but none have succeeded on anything that looks remotely like a permanent All Black beating style, system, call it what you will! If you are an avid and keen rugby follower you should all know that the All Blacks have never ever sat on their hands when there's a possibility of any method by any Team that has caused them any time of grief in any game played and used against them that, they have ever not been able counter and succeed in bettering, they have always studied and remedied any discrepancies that have caused them to as I say grief, in any game past, ~ They are forever evolving and learning themselves, all the time. As an example you can guarantee that the loss to Ireland would never have worried them unduly because there really was nothing riding on it in importance as it was a Northern Tour that they have gone through year after year as a rule on the winning side of most games played! No Team in any sport played is unbeatable we all know that but, in the All Blacks case they would have been far more disappointed that they lost a game at all, as they don't go on any paddock to lose, that is the mindset drilled into them but the way they lost will have very much have been worked over, and over and over in every aspect, movement, or whatever as to how they lost, not because they lost! They will have the remediation of all methods the Irish used to nullify them causing that loss and you can once again, be assured they 'will' work it out! ~ They don't and won't change much as why would they? ~ when as a rule every plan, move, or whatever they use to carry on their winning way has served them so well for year after year! The rushed defence that all teams use these days will be the move most scrutinised and worked over on how it can if possible be nullified and someway, somehow, they will come up with something to possibly negate it! ~ One thing we should all be aware of when this 'rush defence is being used' the very nature of the ''rushed'' move makes it very vulnerable to the fact that the fringe players on the outside of the Field of movement have a tendency to get ahead of the player and ball meaning of course they are offside, ~ this is very prevalent in almost every of those moves made, so our good friends the Referees and Linesmen as adjudicators have and must be held accountable for any of this very thing should it happen! Anyway I would say that after all this soul searching and blah! blah! bluster by Eddie Jones, Joe Schmidt a fellow Kiwi and whoever else of how they've got it sussed as to the only and sure way to beat the All Blacks will, like this well put together article be just looked at as something to an All Black supporter or player that we've heard over and over and over, ho hum stuff, and none of it has worked to any degree for well over the 100 years these Boys in Black have been invariably at the top of the game of International rugby! We have all heard of the ''Tall Poppy Syndrome", well the New Zealanders are that Tall Poppy and every Team playing the game are and have been trying to cut that Poppy down to size, ~ None have succeeded yet on a permanent basis!
ethan
Guest
This excellent mate, unfortunate to get buried amongst the weekend live scores. Submit the next one on a Wednesday, or as Nic Bishop owns that spot, maybe a Tuesday or Thursday ;)
Conor Wilson
Roar Pro
Agreed Jacko. Thats why its a series of 5. You have to mix and match to remain unpredictable. For me you have to play with accuracy and intensity for 80 minutes, have multiple options to every attack that you run, and hit weak point after weak point. Opportunities multiply as they are seized. You get gainline from a weakness against the AB's, you have to hit another, immediately to keep them on the back foot. The game will be won in those moments of initiative. The AB's are also adapting to line speed. And are changing there game to combat it. Hence they themselves used this tactic against the French in a near textbook copy of the MacQueen Brumbies. I've written an article on the that and the other methods they're using for that as well. But those will be up after the 1014 releases them. The Lions Forwards also held their own. First test they weren't playing the 10-12 dynamic and weren't at the races because of it, The forwards in the remaining two tests, they definitely got parity. As they did one hell of a job on the carrying. Also, 3 to 1, i think maybe a stretch. Considering I think the Wallabies in attack are becoming rather efficient on their breaks. Per line break last year, i believe they had the highest break to ratio score. Which shows they're starting to come good.
Conor Wilson
Roar Pro
Quite a big weakness seeing as its been a common defensive flaw for over 2 years. SA have imported the Bulls plan under Meyer, whereas Coetzee didn't really have a plan at all. But none were anything like the Brumbies under MacQueen. It called for patience and not kicking the ball away. In Dunedin the Wallabies were patient, methodical, and scored twice hitting this area repeatedly. As did the Argentinians. When the AB's numbered they went into a wide game which suited the AB whip defence. Which is the 5th article under this. But all they had to do was change channel and rinse repeat. Admittedly, the skillsets to play this flat and fast and with accuracy are not found in abundance. Which was why MacQueen could recreate the attack pattern with the Wallabies and not the Rebels. But in the 22, this should be an area a team should focus on. As wide play often plays to the AB strengths.
Lara
Guest
The ABs are one of the best teams when it comes to thinking on their feet , in the thick of action. This ability to adapt n the number of variations in their game plan for each opponent is impressive, the quality of their players n the variation in their skill sets can also change a game. The number of their players to produce something brilliant during a game is very difficult to control , you hope for mistakes , but they tend to be minimal . 80 mins is a long time in rugby n this animal learns very fast , no other team in World rugby can change or create as many opportunities , but glad to heard England n Ireland are varying their play to take on the ABs.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Any team that scores tries these days has to take risks . If they have an off day or are put under pressure legally or illegally they will lose . If the match officials make mistakes as they do the whole result can change . The ABs take more risks but have far more skills than any other side ,are better coached and so can play to any game plan and mostly win . Our side are lacking in skills and are not welll coached . They have a poor game plan and can’t adjust . We rely on luck they rely on a proven winning culture . We put a lot of emphasis on a lucky win they concentrate on the next games and the series . We have some very good players in Kepu , Pocock , Beale , Folau and DHP . Some journeymen in Genia , Phipps , Foley , Simmons , Hooper , Sio , Kerevi , Kuridrani , Arnold and Carter . Then we have Hodge who could be our best player being wasted as a spare part . The Reds thanks to Thorn will provide us with a very solid pack . We don’t need Hanigan , Robertson or any others like them . Nor do we need boofheads on the wing . Our two problems are ; Hooper at 7 and finding a 13 . At present Kuridrani is the best we have ; perhaps DHP .
Sinclair
Guest
Really enjoyable read that allows for a rational discussion based on evidence - thank you. The Brumbies relatively good record against Canterbury for many years in the first decade of Super Rugby suggests you are onto something, as the AB approach has similarities to the Crusaders'. The difficulty is that the AB have shown they can really tighten up around the ruck if a team is consistently attacking there, as was the case in the Argentina test referred to. Argentina and others struggle to implement an alternative mode once the AB shut down the attack close to the ruck. Having plans B, C etc. and the capacity to implement in the face of AB pressure - that's the thing.
Jacko
Guest
The problem with these type of plans is that you can execute to perfection and if the opposite number is individually better then they upset all your attacking or defensive plans. As Hansen keeps saying...Rugby is a "fluid" game...not a static one and all the best plans in the world go out the window as the ABs passed it to the winger 35 mtrs away when you expected them to take it thru the fringe.......I see the Abs as constantly evolving and I dont see PLANS beating the Abs unless you have many and can change from one to the other very quickly. The PLAN can very quickly come undone if the ABs score 3 quick tries against you and as ATLAS said...the ABs score more than 3 tries for each 1 they let in. Like many Nick Bishop articles it presumes that the ABs will not keep evolving......I mean who predicted the ABs would go thru the Lions forwards in the first test last year...but thats what they did and did it very very well...Anyway...an enjoyable read...thanks Connor
Atlas
Roar Rookie
A compilation video would show 49 times since the last RWC when opposition teams have outwitted the All Blacks, from that one could gather any number of solutions, however the catch is for those 49, the ABs have scored 166 tries in response.
One Eye
Roar Rookie
As alluded to in the article, this is only good so long as the AB's do nothing to rectify the perceived weakness. And really, the question must be, how big of a weakness is it really when SA use the tactic constantly over the past 5 years and can't catch a cold. Focus too much on what are perceived weaknesses from previous years rather than improving the skill and execution of the team itself is a recipe for failure.
Conor Wilson
Roar Pro
FYI for Nick Bishop. This was submitted before we had our talk on Leinster. So apologies for the misconceptions!