This Wednesday night’s State of Origin Game 3 is a dead rubber with the New South Wales Blues already sealing the series with a 22-12 win in Game 1 at the MCG and an 18-14 victory in Game 2 at ANZ Stadium.
The Blues have not won the series in a clean sweep for 18 years. Even when Queensland were at their most dominant, the Maroons also only managed the clean sweep once in 11 years.
The Maroons will want to win this game desperately – not only to restore some pride, but also to farewell Billy Slater appropriately. On Wednesday, Slater will play his 31st and final Origin game and he has been named captain with Greg Inglis out due to injury.
But for the Maroons to have any chance of toppling the Blues on Wednesday night, Kevin Walters needs to rethink some of his coaching strategies. In the first two games, he made some significant errors which proved very costly for Queensland.
In the past, what has made Queensland so successful is picking players in position and selecting a team, rather than a group of individuals. When Kevin Walters selected Kalyn Ponga for Game 2, he picked him out of position ‘just because he had to be there’.
Let me be clear. Ponga was outstanding in Game 2. He did the role he was asked to do and did it exceptionally well. He was unfazed by the Origin arena and I look forward to seeing him in Maroon for many years to come.
But unfortunately, when Walters brought Ponga on, he disrupted what had been working for Queensland so effectively in the first 25 minutes, which was playing through the forwards, giving Slater the ball and then Slater attacking the edges through Will Chambers, Dane Gagai and Valentine Holmes.
Any time Chambers got the ball in his hand, he managed to get outside Latrell Mitchell. In almost every circumstance it led to a try or a disallowed try.
A smart football team would have continued to target the weak edge that had been so exposed.
This strategy was working and New South Wales were struggling to keep up.
But instead of recognising that and encouraging that to continue, Walters brought Ponga on which saw the game plan change immediately.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Ponga played in the middle which forced Slater into first receiver. After that happened, the ball did not make it out wide for the rest of the game. Additionally, because Ben Hunt is a half that prefers to run rather than giving early ball, Walters’ error of judgement was compounded.
Unfortunately, Ponga will not be playing Game 3 due to injury, so fortunately Walters won’t be able to disrupt the game plan in that way again.
So hopefully he sticks to what worked in Game 2 and encourages Slater and new halfback Daly Cherry-Evans to give good early ball to the outside backs.
Bringing Ponga on and using him in that way was an example of Walters not playing what was in front of him and sticking to a pre-meditated strategy.
What helped the Blues so much, particularly in Game 2, was Brad Fittler playing and coaching what was in front of him.
Very early we saw Fittler make a decision to stop playing his props. Matt Prior saw very little football during the game. Instead, Jack de Belin and Tyson Frizell played three stints each. When Fittler saw Walters was playing Ponga in the middle he realised he did not need big players to contest that area of the park. This strategy worked for the Blues.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
How Walters uses his forwards will also have a big impact on this game. Josh McGuire, Jai Arrow and Josh Papalii are all in the run-on side. That’s a good start and for Queensland’s sake, I hope they stay on the field together for plenty of the game.
In Game 2, McGuire also started and was one the Maroons’ most effective forwards. He was taken off in the 50th minute and did not return for the rest of the game.
For most of the second half, the Queensland middle was Coen Hess, Kalyn Ponga and Jai Arrow. It’s unclear why Walters opted for this middle instead of having McGuire, Arrow and Papalii on the field at the same time.
It was particularly baffling, because Ponga was Queensland’s most used middle forward. When it came to later in the game when Ponga could have had a real impact, he was absolutely exhausted. I wonder whether, had he had fresh legs, Ponga would have scored from that break he made late in the game rather than being chased down.
By the time it got to the 78th minute, Walters had only used five interchanges. He brought Papalii on with two minutes to go which was a waste. McGuire and Wallace remained on the bench despite the game being exceptionally fast-paced and Queensland needing fresh legs.
But what the Maroons need the most in this game is for their experienced players to step up in the absence of Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk and steady the ship. It was so clear that what was most missing for Queensland in Game 2 were some basic footy smarts and someone to tell the team to be patient rather than kicking on the third tackle directly to James Tedesco.
This is where Daly Cherry-Evans must also step up.
I’m still tipping a Blues clean sweep on Wednesday night and quite convincingly at that. The shackles will be off for New South Wales and I look forward to seeing them playing some fast, fun, exciting football and ruin the party for Billy Slater.
Matt H
Roar Guru
Well we will be looking for a fullback and that is where Munster started and actually wants to play, so Ponga and Munster may be 6 and 1, with Morgan or DCE at 7.
Matt H
Roar Guru
Depending on what happens with the halves next year, Morgan may also be an option for right centre. His flick pass on that side of the field is pretty lethal and he is solid in defence.
Graham
Guest
haha I'm a very homesick expat at the moment :D
Gray Hand
Guest
Scarily insughtful analysis for a 3:00am post there Graham.
Graham
Guest
Incidentally Fifita got scapegoated last year for their origin loss but a few minutes before he made his key defensive mistake I said "he's had a great game but him and woods need to be subbed". His coach let him down and then he got the blame I was pretty glad he was scapegoated and didn't get selected this year. He amazingly dominated even when QLD got their defensive structure right. So many times he would make meters with 3 tackling him or make a dangerous offload.
Graham
Guest
Yeah I think chambers has struggled against mitchell particularly in game 1. Unfortunately QLD have a problem at right center. Worse yet Chambers is 30 and unlikely to get better. Copley plays well at left center and is an excellent defender he might be an option (he has played at right center for broncs if i recall correctly). Gagai is a good defender but hasn't been great in attack this year at centre (great at wing). But an oates and gagai might make a decent right side partner ship. Another option would be to put DCE at right center. There is plenty of precedent playing halves in centers for origin and he is very good defensively as well as providing a much needed goal kicking option. In any case right center is the one place QLDs generation next don't have covered with a dominant player yet. Also Napa has struggled defensively 2 years in a row and there have been some major hiccups in walters coaching.
Graham
Guest
Queensland usually play a style of the 4 roll. The forwards conserve energy walking back on side bunched up (cue Guus "you could throw a towell over them") while their backs take dummy half runs for tackle 2 and 3 before everyone gets in position for tackle 4 and 5. This means there is 2 less hit ups a set for the Queensland forwards. They then have a bunch of aggressive tacklers who tackle in numbers with fast line speed. Its a strategy they have done for many years sometimes successfully sometimes not. So comparing meters gained by forwards you are comparing apples with oranges. Its possible that taking less hitups means the outside backs get tired from their dummy half runs but I doubt it QLD were finishing the stronger but lacked the game management to put them away like they usually do. Besides, any trivial energy spent by backs making dummy half runs is more than compensated by forwards getting to walk back onside and have a breather. They also dont have to spend energy running back to the 20, they can instead walk back to the 40 (or wherever the 3rd tackle happens). The whole point of forwards dominating is to get more territory. To say "QLD got more territory but NSW forwards individually made more meters" is to miss the point and get things backwards. If you get more territory you tire out the opposition who have to concentrate harder and you are more likely to get a repeat set. So its actually a strategy that gasses the opposition. Also tackling in numbers is more aerobic but less anaerobic work so it can gas you less if you have the right sort of player. If you wish to assess how individuals went for QLD forwards you can't look at meters because they are taking less hitups. Instead look at 1. meters per hit up 2. total tackles per minute (since they are on for different amount of times. You want a high number of tackles since you want to tackle in numbers 3. tackling efficiency with the third being by far the most important. A par score on that is probably around 92% at origin level. QLD had 3 poor performing forwards in Ponga (85%) Kaufusi (89%) and Napa (87%). Napa is no surprise because he is poor at NRL level and Ponga is out of position. The game was similar to when QLD played Matt Bowen at lock for a game and they similarly couldn't implement their game plan. So I agree with the writer that it was poor coaching that probably cost QLD the game. If you have a 92% or more tackler in Ponga's place QLD probably dominate territory the whole match and win by plenty Incidentally I think Walters coaching has cost QLD a few times. In game 1 last year they had many 1v1 tackles when NSW were just working their way out of their own half. A strategy which really does gas you as well as giving up easy meters. QLD forwards got annihilated because their strucutre was wrong. That only got fixed at half time in game 2. In game 1 this year they tackled in numbers but often not simultaneously. Their line was pretty wonky. This meant that NSW got a huge number of harmless tacklebreaks where the first tackler would slow the runner down and the second would complete the tackle. This isn't the end of the world (and 52 missed tackles makes it look like it is) but nimble players like todesco could take advantage of the poor structure. To QLDs credit they fixed that by game 2. In summary I think the op ed is right that Ponga at lock probably cost QLD even though he is an exciting player and I do indeed worry that walters is not a good enough coach getting his defensive structure wrong in 3 and a half of the last 6 games
bbt
Guest
Munster needs a rock-solid half. Otherwise he tends to overplay his hand. Kaufusi has to get the ball on the go, not when he is standing still.
Gray-Hand
Guest
Not sure that Queensland’s success was due to always picking players in their proper position. Inglis has almost always been a centre despite playing a lot at fullback and (I think) five-eigth for his club during the same period. Boyd and Slater both played quite a bit on the wing. Thurston played number 7 while Lockyer was still around.
Concussed
Guest
They were gassed from exertion during defence, or from the non rotation of the interchange bench as highlighted.
Sandy boy
Guest
Think Ponga showed in game 2 where his future lies, he's gonna be the next big thing in the #6 shirt. Where does this leave Munster? He can play anywhere, same as Ponga. But I think Ponga has more running game. Agree that Kevvie had him on the park in the forwards too long and that's gotta have gassed him.
FlashGordy
Guest
Because they never picked players out of position before #Fail
Short Memory
Guest
QLD forwards had less impact and were more vulnerable in the final 15 mins, so yeah, my reading of that is that they were gassed. I put that down to all the explosive effort trying to bash the Blues. It happens - used to be a pretty common problem with the Warriors. And, yeah, the outside backs were doing a lot more heavy lifting in terms of making metres - and they seemed to be down a bit on energy in defense in the final 10 minutes. All this is just my opinion and could be totally off the mark. No argument that Smith (or Thurston) would have got QLD home.
Rob
Guest
Not sure Ponga caused Slater to be less effective. I'd suggest Billy may have been a bit gassed, playing his first game after a long layoff recovering from the hamstring injury. Fittler picked a very quick mobile team to beat Queensland and it proved successful. I don't think Queensland got the selections right. Also having players like Hunt, Slater, Napa and Morgan carrying injuries into games was disruptive. Losing Inglis and the brilliance Ponga is not good but hopefully DCE and Oats in the side will bring some direction with the boot and penetration through the middle.
Forty Twenty
Guest
I don't doubt your stats and was unaware of some of them but I'm not sure you would chose to have your opponents aggressively dominate your forwards in SOO to preserve energy for the last 10 or 15 minutes. The game probably should have been over by then and with Smith still at hooker would have been I suggest. NSW dominated the forward exchange in game 1 last year but QLD cut them down in the next 2 so I find it hard to believe it is a good idea in general. A key moment I believe in game 2 was the sin binning of the Jet. For a lot of players on the 12 player team it produces a better performance and often causes a degree of panic in the full strength out fit because everyone thinks they should score. The Turbo brothers at Manly have a hell of a record when down a player and even last year when we were getting hammered by Saints we were looking like possible winners when we lost a player to the bin and scored several tries to narrow the gap It's an interesting take that the QLD forwards were more gassed than NSW in the last 10 or so despite their backs helping out markedly with yardage and I'm not convinced that they were. Both the QLD backs and forwards were more gassed at the end of the game?
Emcie
Roar Guru
He was also helped by QLD's inability to capitalise on the breaks they made down his edge
Emcie
Roar Guru
I did say "crossed the line", Gagai had a try disallowed in Game 2 as well. I also never stated that Chambers dominated his opposite or got the better of them, just that saying that I don't agree that Mitchell dominated Chambers. It reminds me of the aftermath of game 1 last year where everyone was going on about how good Hayne had been despite how easily QLD had gone through him. I don't think NSW have been good enough this year to paper over cracks that will be there next year if they stick with this team
Forty Twenty
Guest
Mitchell scores tries that very few if anyone else scores and this makes his good better than the others , his bad has become better but needs more improvement. Freddies gamble in picking players like Mitchell has paid off because his good points were way better than Chambers and his bad wasn't as bad either.
Short Memory
Guest
Hmmm. Not sure what game you watched. But stats for SOO Game 2 2018: Addo-Carr 1 Try LB 1 TB 4 TK 8 MT 4 Mitchell 1 Try LB 2 TB 5 TK 10 MT 0 TOTAL 2 Tr LB 3 TB 9 TK 18 MT 4 Gagai 1 Try LB 1 TB 3 TK 6 MT 4 Chambers 1 Try LB 1 TB 2 TK 19 MT 3 TOTAL 2 Tr LB 2 TB 5 TK 25 MT 7 Same number of tries for each pair. But NSW centre / wing clear winners in Line Breaks, Tackle Busts and Tackles Missed. As for Game 1 according to the Courier Mail stats, Chambers Tr 0 TB 0 LB 0 Gagai Tr 1 TB 3 LB 0 Mitchell Tr 1 TB13 LB 1 Addo-Carr Tr 1 TB14 LB 2 So the NSW pair win that contes 2-1, 27-3, 3-0 Though to give credit where credit is due, in that Game Chambers definitley lapped the field in missed tackles with a game high 10. MIght be time to take off those Maroon coloured glasses...
thomas c
Guest
In terms of Fittler, once you've won anything that happened looks like genius/destiny. The dice falls a different way and he'd have his back to the wall rather than being taking a victory lap. In games 1 and 2, QLD did better than expected. They were one or two brain fades away and the slightest bit of composure from leveling the series heading to Suncorp, despite disrupted preparation. If Morgan, Hunt and Slate were all fit, I think QLD might have won game 1 and 2 despite fielding a team I thought was way weaker than NSW (excellent spine, speedy backs, big pack). It's premature to be too positive about Fittler. To my thinking, QLD getting remotely close to leveling the series has to speak to mismanagement.