Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel arrived in Germany with both championship leads, with the outright fastest car and riding on a wave of momentum, but a gentle sprinkling of rain was enough to wash it all away.
Off the back of a powerful victory at Silverstone and after cruising through qualifying, the Hockenheimring was shaping up as the scene of a defining moment for the Scuderia’s advances in the 2018 championship hunt. Ferrari, perhaps for the first time in years, was in possession of the unquestionably superior machine.
Even in the power stakes, the domain of Mercedes since 2014, the Scuderia had found an edge, and Silver Arrows boss Toto Wolff conceded his team was losing as much as half a second on the straights, a situation unthinkable even as recently as the start of the month.
Mercedes, on the other hand, seemed likely to only extend its run of uncharacteristically dodgy form. A double technical retirement in Austria – the first time in world championship history all Mercedes cars had stopped in a race with mechanical trouble – preceded a poor start for Lewis Hamilton and an ambitious but ultimately incorrect strategy gamble for Valtteri Bottas in Britain.
Now in qualifying Hamilton was knocked out in 14th with a hydraulics leak and Valtteri Bottas, despite his best efforts, had no answer for Vettel’s pace.
“I want to look at Ferrari, but I also want to look at ourselves,” Toto Wolff said on Saturday night. “If we want to win this championship or stay in the hunt for the championship, we’ve got a severe warning today.”
But what looked set to be the moment Ferrari consolidated its position leading the championship soon turned into the nadir of its season to date, and Mercedes was the principal benefactor, taking the chequered flag in a formation Hamilton-Bottas, one-two finish.
The culprit? Human error.
Sebastian Vettel’s title chances are cooked. (GEPA Pictures/Red Bull Content Pool).
It was an unusually weak race from an execution point of view for Ferrari despite the Italian team holding all the cards for victory. Its sole correct pit stop, for example – to pit Kimi Raikkonen early and cover both Hamilton and Bottas simultaneously – was as good as it got, and even in making this move the team failed to anticipate Vettel getting caught behind his slower teammate after making his own tyre change.
Though it wasn’t what cost Vettel victory, the 11 laps the German was bottled behind the sister Ferrari made no strategic sense for the race or the championship, and indeed Sebastian wasted little time telling his engineers that his teammate should be moved aside.
Even if Raikkonen’s contract were to contain some sort of guarantee that he won’t be pushed aside for his teammate before the midseason break, as has been speculated upon, the pair were on different strategies, with Kimi certain to need another stop whereas Vettel’s strategy hinged on keeping his tyres in good condition in the clear air of the lead.
The team eventually gave in to Vettel’s demands, but not before needlessly losing what could have been critical ground to his Mercedes rivals.
However, the most significant error of all obviously belonged to Vettel himself: an embarrassing lock-up in the wet that sent him gently but critically into the barriers in the stadium section, wiping out what at that stage would have been a straightforward victory and thereby squandering possession of the fastest car.
Ferrari’s day contrasted starkly with Mercedes’s approach to the race. Despite initially losing Bottas a place to Raikkonen at the first pit stops, the team expertly managed the strategy of both drivers thereafter and ruthlessly ordered Valtteri to hold station behind Lewis for the final ten laps to ensure victory for the team and its best shot at the drivers title.
Perhaps with their senses heightened by the team’s stinging run of form and loss of momentum, Mercedes engineers and drivers were reflexive and decisive when their Ferrari counterparts hedged and wasted.
There are still ten rounds to run in this 21-race season, and Hamilton and Mercedes’s 17-point and eight-point advantages over Vettel and Ferrari in their respective title standings are far from insurmountable, but with each team pushing the other to perform at such high levels, even a solitary mistake can make an enormous difference to the title result.
Lewis Hamilton celebrates. (Photo: Mercedes AMG Petronas)
Indeed, to return to the 2017 season, it was human error rather than technical failure that really decided last year’s drivers championship against Vettel, because while unreliability is usually a blameless act of chance, human error is not.
“To be fighting a four-time world champion who you respect, you expect nothing but the best from them,” Hamilton said last season at the height of the championship fight. “It’s really down to one of you making the smallest mistake.”
The German Grand Prix could prove to be the single chink in Ferrari’s armour that undoes its entire season.
anon
Roar Pro
Give it a break. Hamilton is the mistake-prone, inconsistent driver who owes Mercedes dominance to three of his titles. Was best by Rosberg in equal machinery in 2016. Bottas was barely quicker than a Felipe Massa 8 years past his prime. Webber was almost certainly a better driver than Bottas is now. The Red Bull was only ever dominant in 2011 and the second half of 2013, and even then it was nothing like the dominance enjoyed by Mercedes between 2014-17 -- in particular 2014-16 which were the most dominant cars in the history of the sport. In 2010 there were 5 drivers in contention for the world title with a couple races remaining. The youngest, least experienced driver of those 5 drove the best in those final races of 2010. 2012 you had 7 different drivers win the first 7 races.
Danial
Guest
Anon, In relation to Kimi , I 100% agree with you that he would be the one that would cost Ferrari the Constructors Title. If Ferrari were deadly serious about winning the Constructors, Kimi would have been replaced long ago due to the clear gap between him and Seb. This is the problem thou, Ferrari don't wont to upset their golden child by putting a more competitive driver next to him to make the team overall stronger. they will not waiver from this and it will be their down fall. In relation to Seb, I stand by my comments. Leading and winning Grand Prix's by 30 odd seconds in a dominant Red Bull and not having a team mate to challenge you at that time ( lets be honest, Webber was an average driver at best) is one thing. But him up against Hamilton in pretty much equal machinery has shown his flaws under pressure. I think Riccardo would be the better fit based on my above comments.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I understand your point about comparing the regulations of the 1990s to those of today, which I think serves to demonstrate how difficult it is to compare eras — the nature of the cars are fundamentally different across the history of the sport. It's like debating whether Juan Manuel Fangio is the best driver in history — how can we objectively assess it? However, just because drivers were punished more severely for their mistakes — and not simply by ending their races in the gravel but also by risking serious injury or death — doesn't make them more skilled any more than it makes the teams of old more competent than those of today. Maybe they were braver, but I think it's difficult to argue that the level of training and preparation the modern-day athlete undertakes doesn't put them at a higher level of overall performance. I take your point about Hamilton passing the Haas cars, but he was also cruising past the Force India cars, which were using the same power unit he was. It's all a function of the chassis. Also, Hamilton seems to say overtaking is almost impossible on every circuit he has to overtake on — I think making himself the underdog is a self-motivation tool.
anon
Roar Pro
So you'd sack him even though he's had a definite edge on Kimi for three straight years? Kimi is the one who will cost them a constructors championship. Singapore 2017 Vettel was not to blame. You could argue he should have left more room on the first lap and been more cautious, but the same argument could be made for Hamilton turning into Kimi at Silverstone. Also, he's won multiple championships being aggressive and driving at the limit. Baku 2017 was stupid, but no doubt Hamilton was brake testing Vettel and trying to cause carnage behind him (much like he tried to do in Abu Dhabi 2016). Germany this year he made a simple mistake in the wet. Unfortunate for him it was one of the only places on the track (or on the calendar) with a short gravel run off. Hamilton made a bigger mistake in qualifying and paid the price.
anon
Roar Pro
The only thing I'd say is that in the past the cars were much harder to drive on the limit (mid-90's after removing electronic aids and in grooved tyre era). In addition, the circuits had gravel traps or bumpy grass run offs everywhere. It was easier to make a mistake and you were punished much more severely for it -- much like Vettel on Sunday. Much was talked about how good the Ferrari engines were, but Hamilton was still passing the Haas cars halfway down the back straight on supposedly a hard circuit for overtaking (Hamilton's words).
Michael Lamonato
Expert
It's an interesting point. Even this year he's made some key mistakes, like his lock-up in Azerbaijan, which also ended up handing a win to Hamilton, and also copping a grid penalty in Austria for blocking during qualifying. They all lost him points, and that adds up over a season. Bold call to sack him, however! I'd love to see Ricciardo go head-to-head with Vettel again, though.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Fair call on the team orders. I'm still not sure why Ferrari was so hesitant to move Raikkonen aside. The team knew he was almost certainly on a two-stop strategy at that point while Vettel could get away with a one-stop. That could've been a massive own-goal without the rain and may well have contributed to his crash, as you say. I think you've missed the mark on engine performance, though. Raikkonen was faster on some laps than Bottas after the safety car, only really letting go on the last two laps. Don't forget that the peak power differences we see in qualifying are less relevant in race pace, so it'd be fair to say the two packages are more closely matched on Sunday, therefore on the same tyres passing Bottas was always going to be difficult, and they finished only two seconds apart. Don't look back on the past with rose-tinted glasses. All those drivers made mistakes. I think this championship will be decided by mistakes, but only in the way that both Vettel and Hamilton and their respective teams are performing at a similarly high level — the only difference between them will be errors.
Danial
Guest
Vettel has proven to me over the last few years that when the pressure is on, he starts to falter as a driver. 3 examples come to mind. Singapore 2017 : Arguably the accident involving him, Kimi & Max was his fault at a critical point in the championship. Baku 2017 : lost his composure because of apparent brake testing by Lewis, hit Lewis on purpose, got a penalty which cost him the race win. german gp 2018 : we all now what happen this weekend. I'm sure that I've missed many other incidents as well. Now , I know this wont happen because there's apparently something very sexy about a German in a red car. Ferrari needs to release Vettel and sign Riccardo asap. Being an Aussie , ill admit that I am a little bias. But with all seriousness, I cant think of a better well rounded driver on the grid at the moment. He is at the peak of his career, his fast, his clean, his reliable, his got Italian heritage ( if that means anything ). And he will come at a cheaper price compared to Sebastian. So, what are you waiting for Prancing Horse ?
anon
Roar Pro
Vettel choked no more than Hamilton did in qualifying. I feel a little sorry for Vettel. He's pushing in the greasy conditions because Hamilton's starting to close the gap on his ultras. Vettel should never have been in that position. He should have been allowed past Raikkonen immediately and been able to build a 20 second lead, not an 8 second lead. Vettel would not have had to push in greasy conditions. I think Mercedes still has the edge on Ferrari despite what the British media say. Raikkonen couldn't make a dent on Bottas at the end of the race. Vettel has to drive ultra aggressive just to keep the Mercedes at bay. Any way, I think Vettel and Hamilton are demonstrating they aren't in the elite company of say Schumacher, Senna or Prost. It's a season defined by mistakes.