As the NRL braces for a blood-red coaching storm, AFL counterparts are sailing on uncommonly calm waters.
In the NRL, there could be five head coaching changes on the horizon.
In the AFL, there’s none – a rare tranquillity.
Since 1969 in the AFL, only twice has there been no head coaching change at a season’s end – in 2003 and 2005.
Those snippets of history are set to repeat should St Kilda hold their nerve with Alan Richardson and Carlton stick their course with Brendon Bolton – with both clubs steadfast they will.
In contrast, the NRL’s carnival of coaching change has names on the merry-go-round including Penrith’s already-sacked Anthony Griffin, Brisbane’s Wayne Bennett, Wests Tigers’ Ivan Cleary, South Sydney’s Anthony Seibold, St George Illawarra’s Paul McGregor and Manly’s Trent Barrett.
Sacking coaches isn’t new in either of Australia’s most popular football codes.
What is fresh is the AFL retaining status quo.
Why is it so? Simplistically, because of Richmond.
The Tigers’ coach Damien Hardwick was considered a dead man walking after 2016 when his club finished 13th – that was his seventh season at the helm and he hadn’t won a final.
But after an intense review of all aspects of the club, Richmond kept faith in Hardwick and he duly delivered the 2017 premiership.
Richmond’s success came with a change in playing style rather than a change in coach – although five of Hardwick’s assistants were let go at the end of 2016.
And in a competition where the also-rans invariably turn copy-cats of the pacesetters, a trend has started: back the coach, change the system.
Collingwood followed Richmond’s blueprint: Magpies coach Nathan Buckley last year missed the finals for the fourth consecutive season in his six-year tenure.
He was widely expected to be marched but, like Richmond, the Magpies stuck by their coach. This season, they’re finals bound and flag contenders.
“It’s better the devil you know than the one you don’t,” Adelaide’s inaugural captain Chris McDermott wrote in a column for News Corp this week.
“And change simply for change sake is rarely the best recipe for success.
“Richmond has proven it. Collingwood has followed suit.”
But there’s a ripple effect: assistant coaches are now, as McDermott puts it, the “new whipping boys … disposable commodities”.
Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and West Coast are among clubs already confirming changes to assistant coaching staff for next season and others are expected to soon follow suit.
Joe B
Guest
True, there would be a bit of financial constraint placed on clubs to see out contracts, or at least to a more manageable financial hit. Freo have Lyon until end of 2020, at perhaps $1mil a season, so the WAFC probably would balk at the idea of p*ssing away so much money by removing Lyon at season's end... but might consider it in 2019 if Freo don't make the top eight.
Rob
Guest
Geelong were in a prelim in 2004, semi final 2005 then had an ordinary 2006 - did what Richmond did and sacked everyone BUT the head coach and look what happened next... In years gone by he would have been shown the door after that 1 ordinary season and I reckon its this success that has kept Hardwick and Buckly in jobs - to their clubs benefit.
Tricky
Guest
To suggest that Collingwood followed Richmond's review is rather simplistic, in fact the only thing similar would be that they retained the head coach. Luckily for Collingwood at the time of the review the well was relatively dry and considered their current man as the best option. The Pies didn't just say to themselves "oh let's do what Richmond did, that'll work" . They recruited a Cat b rookie to suit what they viewed as their game style. Richmond bought in 3 or 4 players for memory at 2016's end to bolster their view of how they should "system". Collingwood made more than just changes to the coaching panel, they reviewed the whole FD and made changes there and even created a "leadership mentoring" role - enter Nick Maxwell. The turn around in fortunes for these 2 clubs are only comparable in their fortunes and the fact that they retained the head coach.
Cat
Roar Guru
She is just positioning herself how they are taught. At a guess I'd say its in case the ball takes an odd bounce one way or the other, you've given yourself the best chance of still being in a decent position to judge it. For example, if you stood to the left and the ball suddenly bounced hard right toward the point post you'd be horribly positioned.
MQ
Guest
That's a good point about the soft football department cap. But putting our cynicism aside, recent history does suggest that clubs can get a good return from persevering with their coaches. In the case of the Saints, it's fair to suggest that they lost a lot of experience at the end of last season, so it's reasonable that that should be taken into consideration. Just to change subject slightly. Noticed the video at the bottom of the screen in the Melb v Syd game, where the female goal ump gets bundled over by players chasing the footy. Just wondering why she chooses to move to the exact spot where the ball is heading with 2 or three blokes in hot pursuit? (seeing it's pretty obvious that the ball is not going through the goals)
Cat
Roar Guru
I'd suggest the soft football department cap has had an impact. Clubs are realising they can't just throw money away sacking coaches. There is simply no way Richardson would have even made it through this season if there wasn't a huge payout at stake. Saints simply cannot afford to do anything. 2019 will be another year completely wasted for the Saints while they wait for the payout to lower to a tolerable level.
MQ
Guest
Hardwick, Bomber Thompson, Micky Malthouse, maybe even Clarkson fits the bill, they all managed to win premierships for their club after relatively long stints of coaching at the same club. As is often said, the easiest thing a Board can do is sack the coach, much more difficult to be a bit more circumspect. It would appear that Collingwood also did the right thing in sticking with Buckley.