The Spring Champion Stakes is the last Group 1 of the Sydney spring, and in recent times it’s rare when the race hasn’t had a lasting impact.
Last year, Ace High won on his way to taking out the VRC Derby and finishing a nose second in the ATC Derby. He’s one of the favourite’s for the Caulfield Cup in two weeks.
Yankee Rose ran third in a Cox Plate after winning the Spring Champion. Complacent won two weight-for-age races a four year old after winning it in 2013. It’s a Dundeel, victor in 2012, became a champion. Monaco Consul won a VRC Derby and placed in a Caulfield Cup.
Thinkin’ Big is the ruling favourite for the Spring Champion, off the back of his Gloaming Stakes win. Not many colts could run away with the race like he did, first-up off a near two month break. He did it all from the front, and was simply too good.
Gai Waterhouse is never shy about, well, thinking big of her horses, and she is convinced this is one of the most promising stayers she’s ever trained. The horse is being set for the VRC Derby, but continues to hold a nomination for the Melbourne Cup – it’s been decades since a three year old took on Australia’s greatest race.
The only issue for Thinkin’ Big this time around will be the heavy track, thanks to the constant rain in Sydney during the lead-up. He does have a heavy track win, but that was in a maiden on debut, so his class would have carried him to victory. He’s only have four career starts, but by far his best two have been on top of the ground. His other two runs, on wet ground, were just okay.
The challengers to Thinkin’ Big are many and varied. The main four dangers in the better each come from a different lead-up race.
Tarka is a classy customer that has kept improving through the winter and spring months. He was second to Thinkin’ Big in the Gloaming, and a wet track may close the difference between them given he won the Stan Fox on a heavy track.
Love me some Randwick racing. (AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
Dealmaker was second to Tarka in the Stan Fox, but hasn’t been seen since. A month between runs stepping up from 1500m to 2000m isn’t ideal, which has occurred because of an elevated temperature. He ate up the slops last start when charging from last, so should handle the conditions on Saturday no problems.
Aramayo brings a different formline after winning the Spring Stakes, doing so in a manner that suggested he has more wins in store, over greater distances. He deserves to be taken seriously.
Mickey Blue Eyes and Purple Sector are backing up after the Dulcify last week. The former had the favours in winning the race, doing so stylishly. The latter found nothing but bad luck in running third, but should have finished much closer.
Maid of Heaven is the interesting runner, one of three fillies in the race. She’s the only one coming off a Group 1 last start performance, when she ran a creditable sixth in the Flight Stakes blanket finish last Saturday.
Frankely Awesome also has some claims, an unbeaten filly from the Kris Lees stable, who has his three year old’s airborne at the moment. Her two starts have been in very restricted grade, but by Frankel out of a Street Cry mare suggest that she’ll relish 2000m. She can easily run a big race.
Visao is up from Melbourne. His best win came at Flemington, over 1800m as a two year old, but ran out of luck at Moonee Valley last time out. Clearly, he’ll relish the bigger Randwick track.
Looking at the stragglers, others have had Irukandji’s measure all campaign, with nothing to suggest he’ll reverse that here. Home Ground looks like he needs something easier at this stage of his career. Panzerfaust is in the same boat.
There’s no doubt Thinkin’ Big will take up the running, with nothing likely to take him on. Tarka will be close enough that if he handles the ground better he can get past the fave. The other main chances are genuine swoopers, so it will come down to who enjoys the conditions the most.
Selections: 1.Dealmaker 2.Thinkin’ Big 3.Tarka 4.Frankely Awesome
Given the unknowns of wet ground, it won’t be easy to get confident about the winning chances of too many in the supporting races.
One horse that looks bombproof is I Am Serious in the Angst Stakes. On ratings she’s almost the best weighted runner in the race. From five starts on wet ground she has four wins and a second. She is unbeaten at 1600m, but with the fitness grounding of runs over further this prep, running well in good races. That’s a perfect foundation for hitting a bog track. She has also never finished worse than second at Randwick.
Randwick racing. (AAP Image/Steve Hart)
The Roman Consul is a tricky little affair, which makes for an interesting betting race.
The Golden Rose is usually the best form for this, and Sandbar drops back from that race to this. Jonker was good in the lead-up races to the Golden Rose, and has a strong case. Spin was good in the Danehill, beating home Native Solider who won at Caulfield on Sunday. Sesar is the fresh horse on the scene after proving himself in the two year old races up in Queensland.
It can often pay to keep the wallet in the back pocket when the ground is as wet as we’re going to see at Randwick, or perhaps selectively target the odd race. Heavy tracks can race differently, and horses can handle one type but not another.