Wind back the clock, all the way to the first of July, 2017. All Blacks versus the British and Irish Lions – the second Test of a momentous series.
It was the last time New Zealand went through an entire match without scoring a try, and that makes it a collector’s item.
That was 24 games ago. It happened again on a balmy autumn evening in Dublin last Saturday.
In Wellington, Sonny Bill Williams was sent off for a head-high challenge on Anthony Watson and the home side were forced to play for more than two-thirds of the game with only 14 men.
At the Aviva stadium, New Zealand kept all their players on the field for the full 80 minutes, but could not penetrate the emerald green blanket.
The real common denominator in the two games is not Williams, but Andy Farrell – the Irish and Lions’ defence coach.
‘Faz’ oversees a defensive system with high line-speed and pressure on the key passers in the attacking side.
Although there has been much talk of New Zealand developing methods to counter the rush defence ever since the Lions series, when push came to shove, the All Blacks were unable to break down the Irish rear-guard.
Against England at Twickenham on the previous Saturday, the All Blacks had engineered 14 clean breaks in far less propitious weather conditions. Against the Irish, that figure dropped to five.
The raw stats support the difficulty New Zealand teams have had in breaking down a Farrell defensive structure over the last three years.
| New Zealand attack | Games won | Win percentage | Tries scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| versus Andy Farrell defences (late 2016-2018) | 2/6 | 33% | 12 (2.0 per game) |
| versus all others (2017-2018) | 21/23 | 91% | 130 (5.65 per game) |
The All Blacks score far more freely against sides with defences that are not coached by Farrell. When he is on the opposition coaching staff, it now represents a big problem.
On the 2017 Lions tour, the All Blacks and the Kiwi regional teams managed 16 tries over the eight tour games.
The signs are that it is getting more and more difficult to score – seven of those 12 New Zealand tries were scored back in 2016 in the two-game series against Ireland in Chicago and Dublin, with only five tries scored over the last four matches against the Lions and Ireland.
The strength of the Irish coaching staff lies in the creative dynamic between the detailed, ball-control mindset of head coach Joe Schmidt and the defensive backbone provided by Farrell.
This means Ireland are capable of both keeping the ball for long periods, while also giving up few chances when they don’t have it. That makes them a tough team to play.
Schmidt’s other USP is his facility at fashioning set-piece packages to exploit weak spots. I explored one of his patented moves in an article before the Ireland tour of Australia in June.
Against England, in the final round of the 2018 Six Nations, CJ Stander scored Ireland’s second try after a neat piece of ‘misdirection’ by Johnny Sexton and Tadhg Furlong in the first wave of attack.
Sexton and Furlong faked the wrap-around move so dear to Sexton’s heart to create a hole for Bundee Aki to run through.
The idea of ‘misdirection’ is imported from American football. It means you try to pull defenders towards one apparent area of attack in order to take them away from the real target zone.
Here is one good example from gridiron.
In the view from behind the posts, the flow of offensive blocking is in one direction (towards the right of the attacking team in blue) and this draws the defenders to that side of the field.
The real area of attack is on the opposite side, but only the ball-carrier and one other blocking back are assigned to it in order not to tip off the play to the opponent.
In recent weeks, there have been a number of terrific examples of misdirection used to tempt aggressive defences to ‘bite’ on the first attacking move. Remember this try by the All Blacks in the third Bledisloe Cup game in Yokohama?
The whole idea is to fake an open-side attack in order to strip down the real target area on the blind-side. Two passes by Kieran Read and TJ Perenara achieve the first part of the exercise, so that Wallabies fullback Dane Haylett-Petty is well away from the scene of the action as it develops.
But, ultimately, it is just a two-on-two, with the All Blacks backing Rieko Ioane and Beauden Barrett to be better at attacking in space than Will Genia and Israel Folau are at defending it.
They were proven right, and it earned them seven points.
England used the same principles to score their first try at the start of the game against New Zealand.
Taking this clip in isolation, it might appear Rieko Ioane has made a blunder by not staying out with his opposite number, Chris Ashton – giving the England flyer space to score in the corner.
But that first impression would be deceiving.
Take a look at the start of the clip, and Damian McKenzie is clearly visible defending the backfield space behind Ioane, ready to come up into line outside him.
But at the end of the play, McKenzie (along with another line defender on that side, Williams) has gone missing.
So, what happened? Let’s take a look at the same sequence from behind the posts.
As Ben Youngs bent down to pick up the ball at the base of the ruck, three England backs (Owen Farrell, Jonny May and Elliott Daly) were all in motion to the left, which persuaded Sonny Bill (on the line) and McKenzie (in the backfield) to leave their posts and follow them across to the far side.
That, in turn, gave Ashton the precious couple of strides he needed to beat McKenzie into the corner – misdirection at its best!
The solitary try in Dublin bore the same unmistakable thumbprint – in fact, it closely resembled the construction of the All Blacks’ own try in Yokohama.
Although the starting set-piece is a lineout rather than a scrum, two passes are made to the open-side before the ball is turned back towards the original sideline by Aki – exactly as in the New Zealand-Australia game.
The move set up a straightforward two-on-two, as in the Bledisloe game, with a tight forward and a wing on either side – Jacob Stockdale and Rory Best for Ireland, Brodie Retallick and Ben Smith for New Zealand.
Once again, the most revealing angle is from behind the posts.
Ben Smith started at blind-side wing in the backfield, then moved up to the line as he recognised the threat developing. Behind him was the real target area, the backfield space which Smith had to vacate, and which McKenzie neglected on the far side of the field.
McKenzie was two steps too slow to get to the critical theatre of the action and that was enough for Stockdale to win ‘the race to the space’ and score.
Summary
On the day, Ireland were the better side. It does not make them either the number one team in the world or favourites for the world cup in 2019, as Steve Hansen suggested in his post-match press conference.
The All Blacks have earned the right to both of those tags over a long period of time.
The game in Dublin was indeed a case of ‘the biter, bit’ in terms of the All Blacks’ use of misdirection against the Wallabies and Ireland’s adoption of a replica move to unlock the New Zealand defence.
That was one definite irony in Jacob Stockdale’s try. As the New Zealand-born coach of Ireland, Joe Schmidt, said wryly of the idea for the move, “I always steal them from someone else!”
It will have done Schmidt’s chance of becoming the next coach of New Zealand no harm at all, and that is a double irony.
Of more concern to the All Blacks coaching staff will be their inability to manufacture the volume of chances they are used to creating, or finish those they did make.
On Saturday evening’s evidence, they have yet to come up with a convincing plan to counter Andy Farrell’s rush defence. The green line held firm, even under the most intense pressure in the final quarter of the game.
The question asked as long ago as June 2017 by the Lions still remains unanswered, and that is an intriguing, critical sub-plot to the drama of North versus South which will be enacted in Japan just ten short months from now.
Nincompoop
Guest
There is a very interesting analyses by Ben Smith (the other one) on the Rugypass website that discusses the "umbrella ‘outside-in’ tactics" used by Ireland to defeat New Zealand (https://www.rugbypass.com/news/analysis-how-ireland-changed-their-defensive-system-to-shut-down-the-all-blacks). Well worth the read.
Fox
Roar Guru
Good article Nick and Ireland deserved the win. Full credit to them. That being said those predicting that this is the demise of the AB's are being way premature ( not that I am saying that you are) but the muffed three tries as Hansen said and perhaps kicking the ball back to a side who just loves to hold onto was not such a good game plan but you can't get right all the time- not even the AB's. At the end of the day, there was only one converted try the difference - hardly the spelling of the end of the AB's. The gap is closing no question - for now - is it fully closed? - As in the back-to-back 3 test series over 3 weeks which we never seem to have anymore except in June in the Southern Hemisphere? I am not so sure and I wouldn't be quick to bet my house against the AB's in back-to-back three test series over three weeks . When was the last time they have been beaten back-to-back? Ireland and England look strong for the WC - the later of which I thought were the best I have seen them against the Wallabies in terms of spreading the ball. On that note Cheika must go - end of story. I said two years ago he was not an high quality international coach and I have been proven correct. Just for the record - Fafita will be th no6 for AB's ( Italy or not, he was bloody outstanding showing his real potential at last - voted best player by the NZ media in that game) at the WC and Jordie Barrett will be on the left wing with Ben Smith at the back IMO. Jordie has the pace and he is outstanding in the air at 6ft 5" in the old lingo and an outrageous off-loader - I think we might see some big changes in the centres as well and Akira Ioane has been in sensational form for the NZ Maori and will be at the WC and the future no8 for the AB's - And Dane Coles is back and looks very good - Finally!!!!! Nonu returns to Auckland this year? .......will he make the AB's? probably not but if he has an outstanding season ...he might be in the conversation who knows.. new coach as well now Umaga has stepped down I think the Ireland's defeat of the AB's was fantastic for them and they totally deserved it ....but is it just what the AB's needed before the WC?
Lara
Guest
Just read an article from NZ, n they made a comment that your comment seem to highlight. The ABs have an answer to the Rush Defence, but they are not using it,because they want more variation ,so they are not so predictable. The lost proves they have not found the second solution yet . They are still experimenting. The England n Ireland games were testing grounds, they definitely didn't want to lose, but the fact they did lose,will make they a better team come 2019.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I think Hansen has a plan but I wouldn't underestimate the size of the difficulties involved in moving away from NZ's traditional turnover attack based pattern. It takes a long time to introduce a new way of thinking and playing and that is what I would guess is happening now. The part now in doubt is whether the AB coaches will have assembled all of the component parts they need before the WC, so it's becoming a race against time.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
No worries Phil... Tbh, if you're running an under 12's it might be best to stick with a drift-type pattern where the defender is always aware of opposite number (as you're doing). After all you're trying to develop their skills and awareness, not their power and turnover ability at that age!
Phil P
Guest
Thanks Nick I appreciate your thoughts. I coach under 12s. I’m comfortable with my approach to defence but will keep what you’ve said in mind as I’m watching. I’ve loved reading your articles, always find something new to think about. Cheers Phil
thebleedingobvious
Roar Rookie
I’m also not sure that all that much has changed in the rugby hierarchy. It sometimes feels as if the Lions in NZ last year was a watershed moment but Lions were pretty lucky drawing the series, given they were behind on scoreboard for all but a few minutes of that entire series plus the French refs in game 3 inexplicably managed to conspire to reverse an offside penalty, that’s always been automatically awarded in the game of Rugby and that should have won series for AB’s. In fact AB’s were dominating the series until SBW had his red card brain fade and reverted to league style in game 2, a pivotal moment for the series IMO, yet the AB’s still could have and felt they should have, won that game with 14. It’s just that everyone expected Lions to be wiped out in NZ in just about every game! They played very well, give them credit as a composite side of pretty much best of NH but AB’s were really unlucky there. Gatland did a good job jelling Lions, but the world coaching star is Andy Farrell IMO His defensive impact on NH has led the way to somewhat neuter the AB offensive game. Better structure and more commitment to getting bodies up and in the way of AB running game. Mental commitment has always been a big part of defence and teams now see a way there V AB’s. Gatland has Wales running no better than middling to a little above in the world game as per usual. Eddie Jones brought a sugar hit of confidence to England, to play more to their potential like they should have been for the last 15 -20 years or so. Scotland arn’t there as a force v the top teams. Schmidt has done a great job building depth in Ireland and they have a generation of excellent players across the board at the moment, that said, take out Sexton and they’re significantly weakened, Sexton and Murray, forget about winning a WC. No toner and their lineouts gonna be a weakness. I don’t see that NH has grown much since last WC, the difference has been improved defensive structure across the board V AB’s, an example to others, eg the Boks, a lot of it being tireless commitment/ better conditioning and the Farrell blitz in yer face league style defending. AB’s still have the best talent across the board but will probably have to look to play a more direct WC style, hold defences umbrellaring out, create a bit of doubt, establish a platform and a few holes. That would mean Laumape from the bench IMO. Unfortunately Hansen will use SBW instead. The biggest loss has been Nonu. SBW is no Nonu but Laumape could be. SBW isn’t even capable of the midfield breaks we get from Crotty and ALB, at best he bends defence, his offloading fantastic but he’s a sometime, one trick pony and over rated for that. I get the feeling Mounga is the better man at 10 for straightening, probing gaps closer in, short passing and seeing kick space. BB is more a play what’s in font guy, if the space is closed to him he’s significantly nullified. He tends to be looking for running space, which I don’t knock him for, given he’s the best running 10 ever seen in rugby. But far from the most complete 10 and not an organiser/ game controller. But they are sticking with Beauden and can’t fault Hansen’s overall outstanding coaching and selection history.
KSB
Guest
On the Irish try, just before the video starts you see why Kieran Read is lying prone for so long. He took a massive tumble from the lineout. Kieran Read tried to jump across, the lifter lost contact and then he flipped over one of the Irish forwards. Could understand why he didn't get up straight away
Keilidh
Roar Rookie
I would expect the NZRU to pressure the SR teams to focus on beating the European and bokkie systems, they’ve been shown up against them this year.
Shooter McGavin
Guest
No never heard of that, maybe from some Wackos up north. Dan Carter was being protected back then. This time round we've got a terribly out of form BB and SBW, an injury prone Crotty and players like Jordie Barrett and Damien McKenzie who'd be lucky to make the Christchurch Boys third 15. To top it off we've lost the coaching brain of Wayne Smith and the best first five isn't starting.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
There is far more emphasis on defence in Europe than in SR K - although you can see the results of European style systems with the Crusaders with ROG's input there... So it would partly depend on the culture of the comp as a whole and those things don't change easily... "Post RWC negotiations must be pretty well advanced, what would a Schmidt coached All Blacks look like tactically? " I expect we will find out in due course.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Well he's been with the side for what, 14 years now? That's a huge amount of time in modern coaching. I just hope he isn't able to 'delegate' the top job to Ian Foster!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Okay - I think it's safe to say we have reached the point where I cannot offer any more explanation Phil :D The basic rule of all professional rugby defence is that you fill the gaps inside first - and you have to remember that the game is being played at such speed that decisions have to be made in an instant. If you're a coach, the best idea would be to get out on a practice field and create similar situations, so that you can see what options are in real time...
Lostintokyo
Guest
Indeed it will Chook!
Phil P
Guest
Youngs makes the pass BECAUSE Ioane has come in and come in too early. The outcome of Ioane coming in was that no one touched anyone. We'll never know what would have happened had he stayed wide, but I'm certain there would have been more of chance of stopping the try than the result we saw. And with the England forwards in numbers, McKenzie has more chance of getting to them than he did with Ashton. There were a few All Black forwards that could have covered them too - at least had much more of a chance to get to the England forwards than to run down a winger. And with Ioane staying wide he could have come in late to make a tackle.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Latest is Hansen says it can be tiring...time to go. Have definitely noticed Hansens low energy levels lately. he brushes off any comments about the side, made no obvious changes to escalate the effort after England and I wouldnt be surprised if hes largely left them to it. The number one ranked side needs to always be on the edge and hansen doesnt reflect that any more. Dont even think I'll bother watching the Italy game live this weekend. A team with Jordie, who has failed to deliver at both centre and fullback, on the wing instead of players like Naholo is absurd, especially when Mo'unga, the player we need most to get overseas test experience, remains on the bench. I'd bet Mo'unga would play better than Jordie on the wing.
Keilidh
Roar Rookie
We could take a couple of players off the field to open it up ;)
Keilidh
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the analysis Nic, always very informative. There will be some interesting times ahead, will we see the NZ Super Rugby teams play the Schmidt/Farrell style to devise counters to it? NZ and Ireland appear to be the only two unions to have properly developed full strategy, support and commitment from clubs to international level, and it shows in their professionalism, fitness, etc. Post RWC negotiations must be pretty well advanced, what would a Schmidt coached All Blacks look like tactically? Should be able to develop a higher risk/reward plan.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I don't think Toulon and Nonu were an ideal fit CUW...
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Individually there can be no complaint about DMac's performances against England and Ireland. Whether the balance is right at 10 and 15 with him and BB there is another matter...