Melbourne had a pretty bad year in 2019.
But I’ve heard some optimism about them this year including talk that they can (and will) make finals. As the great Stephen A Smith would say: “You’re wrong and here’s why”.
I don’t believe in the Dees at all this year. Season 2018 wasn’t necessarily lucky but it was fluky.
It gave Melbourne a false sense of where they were at with their rise to the top, swapping out a corner-piece of their forward line in Jesse Hogan for an injury-riddled and suspension-prone Steven May. This trade may still work out in the Demons’ favour, but when the trade went down, I didn’t believe it was a good move.
It moved Sam Weideman into the spotlight as the second key forward after only a good couple of finals including a best-on-ground performance against Geelong in his first ever final and only his 18th career game.
They misinterpreted his potential as him being ready for a significant role in the Melbourne offensive scheme. It was a mistake that thrust Tom McDonald into the number one forward role, taking the best defender every week. McDonald benefited from having Hogan getting the attention every week as the most dangerous forward with McDonald’s best role always a number two who could tear up the lesser defender.
The May part of the deal had him come down and get suspended before the regular season started and play a total of eight games for the year. This is not exactly the return you wanted from someone who cost your team a functional forward line.
May has been a good player in the past but he just isn’t playing enough to be an elite player in this competition. He’s already 28 and only has about three or four years of decent football left in him, but he mightn’t even have that with his injury history. I’m not a huge fan of May at all and this one trade sent their 2019 season into a spiral before it began.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)
Now to why I believe that Melbourne won’t make finals this year or any time soon.
This is what their best 22 probably looks like this year.
B: Oscar McDonald, Steven May, Neville Jetta
HB: Christian Salem, Jake Lever, Michael Hibberd
C: Ed Langdon, Jack Viney, Adam Tomlinson
HF: Bayley Fritsch, Tom McDonald, Christian Petracca
F: Kysaiah Pickett, Sam Weideman, Jake Melksham
R: Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes
INT: Angus Brayshaw, Jayden Hunt, Aaron vandenBerg, Nathan Jones
The best five players in this team are Gawn, Lever, Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver. They then have possibly another five or six who I would say could fit into the majority of the competition’s best 22. After that, I don’t see much.
Nathan Jones is on a decline, Jake Melksham and Michael Hibberd weren’t great last year and are up there in age at 28 and 30 respectively, and the majority of their team is all the same story. They have shown flashes but never produced consistently enough for them to be considered good or great, such as Jayden Hunt. He can be an impact player for them but for so long he just hasn’t shown up consistently enough over his career.
It’s not all bad for Melbourne in the coming years. They drafted an exciting prospect at a position of need in Kysaiah Pickett, he will be one to watch. Christian Petracca could have a full breakout year and become a solidified star if he can focus on his footy and leave his ego behind.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
I really like the pick-ups in Adam Tomlinson and Ed Langdon on those wings. It gives them good versatility if they choose to use it. And finally, under the stress of a pressured year for Sam Weideman, he will breakout as not a star but a reliable forward who can kick 30 or 40 goals a year.
Melbourne have the ability to make finals but I don’t see them as hungry enough as they were in 2018. After missing the finals by only half a per cent, they had the desperation and hunger but now it seems like they’re resting on their laurels after making the prelim.
They will win eight or nine games this season and then ten or 11 the year after, but look out Demons fans, 2022 is their year if they can make it so.
maurice
Guest
For me Lever and Brayshaw way overrated. If they are in there top 5 Nothing really changing for Demons as to what they had last year. Article pretty spot on.
Chris_S
Roar Rookie
Maybe in 2019 the Paul Roos affect wore off
1DER
Guest
He is highly regarded by the match committee as shown by his voting in the best and fairest. On a pro-rata basis he would have finished third behind the joint winners some 100 points ahead of Jack Viney who finished in fourth placing. Just came to the Dees in poor shape.
Saint Froggy
Roar Rookie
Righto, nice tip. Yeah I probably haven't rated him as highly as others and that's just me. I do agree he is probably one of their most important players now especially with Frost moving to Hawthorn. I just saw the other players I had ahead of him as better but yeah it's just an opinion. Hopefully he can come back fully healthy cause he's really fun to watch. Cheers for the feedback.
Tony Tea
Roar Rookie
You sure wasted a lot of pixels on the "injury-riddled and suspension-prone Steven May" and his "injury history". May played at least 17 games every year from 20 to 27, with most of those misses down to suspension. Then last year he was injured - no dispute from me - but he polled votes in the Demons B&F in five of the eight games he played. Two of those games can be scratched because he was injured during the game. So May therefore polled votes in five of the six full games he played in 2019. May is quite clearly in Melbourne's best five players, and possibly even the Dees most important player, given the crucial nature of key defenders.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I expect them to be more like the 2018 team. When players return to the team rather than being in injury rehab, it's amazing the difference it makes. May, Lever and Jetta will be more than useful additions down back. We saw a sample of that last night in the Marsh series, although I think we also saw their opposition last night will be one of the bottom 3.
Deegrunt
Guest
Hogan was uncoachable from all accounts. He is injury prone, as has been shown in his time at Freo, a team he may not play for again if reports from respected sports journalists in the west are correct, and thats not counting the mental health issues. May is a fantastic player who had averaged 17 games per year till last season and the fitness that caused the issues is no longer an issue in itself, he is fitter than hes ever been. Melbourne win that trade already cause no one has questioned if Mays career is over. Petracca has an ego issue? Judging by the two games hes played so far albeit pre season he looks to have improved out of site. McDonald was carrying an injury last season, as was Weiderman. May, lever and Jetta only played a few games together. They replaced Stokes as forward coach. They got one of the best fitness guys in the workd on board and yes its only preseason but both those moves have already proven to be winners. Last season was frustrating in the fact that despite how ordinary they looked (particularly at the start of the season) had they kicked strait against WCE, Adelaide and Collingwood they would have been sitting in the 8 at the half way point of the season. Had their fitness not been an issue they would have won at least another 5 and finished just below Essendon in 9th, maybe even above them. Hell, had the AFL not introduced the 666 alone the Dees may have won 5 more games - a rule change (that didnt even have the desired effect) forced a change in gameplan that wasnt delt with adequately over 1 pre season, mainly due to the fact half the list wasnt able to train because of post season surgery.