AFL Round 4 power rankings

By Charlie Keegan / Roar Guru

This round was an interesting one as the wheat began separating itself from the chaff, where early-season form began looking less like a mirage and more a pattern. Read on in my power rankings for season 2021 below.

18. North Melbourne

(No change)

The most obvious selection for the most obvious reasons. The Roos are still winless, but they are not bereft of hope. They kicked their highest score of the year in 68. Jaidyn Stephenson has continued to show development in the inside midfield role. The latest loss has resulted in in their percentage increasing, which is something, but they have been deprived of good footy for the first month of the year.

17. Collingwood

(-7)

The Magpies are a club nearing the precipice of a drastic rebuild after some of the asinine and nonsensical list management decisions they’ve made over the past few years. Their coach is too stubborn, they have too many players over 30 and they still overpay their players. They were insipid against a winless Giants outfit and, while they were only beaten by 30 points, it felt like a lot more. Two coaches in the AFL era have won their first premiership after five years, Damien Hardwick and Mark Williams. If Collingwood put up any more performances like that then Bucks will not win a premiership.

16. Hawthorn

(-3)

The Hawks travelled to Perth to find an enraged if inaccurate Fremantle side. Hawthorn were unable to parlay their disposal dominance into a win, they were up 84 in disposals but down 17 in inside 50s. They controlled the ball but they did not have it in dangerous positions. This loss has left this author with questions around the overall sustainability of their list development.

15. Gold Coast Suns

(-3)

The Gold Coast story is a litany of injuries. They were deprived of their talismanic ruckman this week and they do not have any able replacements instead being forced to take Chris Burgess and Caleb Graham as their ruck rotations against a much bigger and heavier Marc Pittonet. However, that was always going to be a concern.

What would worry Stuart Dew the most was the repeated butchering of the ball coming out of their defensive 50, resulting in 81 turnovers. Jack Lukosius and Darcy Macpherson, in particular, butchered the ball going at 54 per cent disposal efficiency for the evening while their outside back men also struggled with Jack Bowes having the highest disposal efficiency rating with 86 per cent. All around, it was a disheartening performance from the Suns this week, and one that sees them tumble down the rankings.

14. GWS Giants

(+2)

The parochial Bombers supporter in me wants to really rub it in Collingwood’s faces for such a meek performance, but to do so would detract from the Giants. Toby Greene led from the front with five goals in a best on ground display, while he was ably assisted by human wrecking ball Shane Mumford and workhorse Callan Ward. The Giants were able to cast off the aspersions of the previous week and build tension for the Battle of the Bridge this week.

13. St Kilda

(+4)

A week is a long time in footy. That is what the win by the bold Saints reveals for them. While I have them reasonably low, as they need to show a pattern of being able to put in strong performances week after week, I don’t think many people would’ve predicted a St Kilda win (unless you’re me of course).

The win was built off of pressure and running in numbers as the fandangled Fox footy pressure gauge had them at well over 200 points. While this performance was a confidence-building win, the Saints need to show something more as they will be travelling more in the latter half of the year.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

12. Essendon

(+2)

I would love to have my beloved Bombers higher, and if they had scored just four more points I would have. The Bombers have had one of the biggest reversals of fortune over the past two weeks, first obliterating the lazy and insipid Saints before going down to a heavily-fancied Swans side in Sydney. Much has been said of the last four games being decided by less than a goal, but in actuality the Swans should have won by more were it not for the inaccuracy they had in front of goal.

11. Brisbane Lions

(-4)

Brisbane needed to show something in Ballarat in the blustery conditions but they failed to do so. Their game style of working your way systematically down the wings is not working, and their clearance domination has been hampered by what appears to be a back injury to Lachie Neale.

Their only win has come against an exceptionally poor Collingwood side and, if they are to be considered any threat, they will need to put the Bombers to the sword at the Gabba this week. That being said, there are bright spots, particularly the performance of Eric Hipwood – who appears to be relishing the reduced pressure of being second fiddle to Joey Daniher. The Lions just need more contribution from their small forwards and a little more luck with injury.

10. Fremantle

(+5)

Fremantle were a pre-season favourite to jump up the ladder and you can see why. They have a young side built on a solid draft haul over the past few years, with some wiley veterans like David Mundy and Nat Fyfe. Much will be made of Fyfe’s inaccuracy in front of goal, of bigger concern to my mind is the disparity between their performances in West Australia vs their performances elsewhere. If they wish to quieten criticism, they will beat Adelaide in South Australia but, given the red hot form of the Texan, I am skeptical.

9. Carlton

(+2)

Carlton were able to get the win, but it was unconvincing. When your ruckman has seven centimetres on Caleb Graham and 11 centimetres on Chris Burgess, you’d hope that would translate into an around the ground domination. But the dewy and damp conditions nullified the form of Harry McKay, and the tall heavy forward line of Carlton. Despite that, Liam Jones (13), Sam Dochety (eight), and Sam Petrevski Seaton (nine) were able to have a field day intercepting the ball up the ground and sending it back into the 50 for repeat forward entries. That being said, if Carlton want to be taken seriously they need to convert their chances – an inaccurate nine goals, 16 behinds the final result.

8. Adelaide Crows

(+1)

I don’t think even the most parochial of fans would have predicted Adelaide to be 3-1 after four rounds. The Crows have built their game style on pressure and kicking it to Tex. While the Crows have had the advantage of a comparatively easy fixture you can only win the games that are in front of you. The Crows absorbed the best pressure the North Melbourne side could bring and exerted their dominance in the last quarter.

(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

7. West Coast Eagles

(-4)

West Coast were up by as much as 33 points in the third quarter on Saturday against the Saints, and they lost by 20 points to a suddenly and surprisingly frenetic St Kilda outfit. While the Eagles have the excuse of injuries to key players like Elliot Yeo and Luke Shuey, the performance in the absence of their parochial supporter base away from Perth has raised numerous questions of the premiership hopefuls.

6. Geelong Cats

(-1)

Geelong are in a world of hurt at the moment. They’ve sold out their future in the name of contending now but, in the absence of their prized key forward recruit in Jeremy Cameron and their firebrand midfielder in Patrick Dangerfield, their performances have left a lot to be desired. The Cats need to string together some better performances against solid opposition or they will be heading into the quagmire and ignominy of mid-table anonymity without a core of youthful players with which to rebound.

5. Richmond

(-1)

I’ve switched the Tigers and Port Adelaide. Richmond were able to push the Power right to the death but fell agonisingly short. There was still a lot to like about the hard-edged performance, which showed Richmond are no less Richmond-y where they are doing what is necessary to be thereabouts.

4. Port Adelaide

(+1)

Well that was certainly a turn around. Port Adelaide were able to push the reigning premiers built on the back of their clearances, their young guns and the cool head of Robbie Gray. To turn around their fortunes in such a way does bode well for their future in this season, however injuries to Xavier Durusma, and Zac Butters will leave them deprived of two of their best young talents, so it remains to be seen whether Port will continue their good run with form this year.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

3. Sydney Swans

(-1)

The only reason they have dropped a rank is they should have won by more. The scoring shots drastically favoured the Swans, but the Bombers were able to clog up the corridor and prevent easy access to their key forwards. Dane Rampe and Isaac Heeney are also out, challenging the depth of the Swans going forward. But if they are to continue at the same rate then they will be in the top four.

2. Melbourne

(+5)

The lid is well and truly off ladies and gentlemen. This Melbourne side have gone to their first 4-0 start since 1994, and will now seek to have their first 5-0 start to a season since 1990 when they come up against a Hawthorn side bereft of confidence. In particular, the resilience to keep Tom Hawkins quiet when your best defender goes off with a fractured eye socket was exceptional and plaudits ought to be paid to the undersized Adam Tomlinson, while Jake Lever ably played the role of general leading his side to a strong win against a pre-season premiership fancy. I think the Hawthorn game shapes as a potential danger game given the Hawks are coming off of a loss and will be eager to perform in front of their local crowds.

1. Western Bulldogs

(No change)
By a country mile we have the unflappable Western Bulldogs. They have shown an ability to get things done in all climates since the start of the year. Their 81 tackles for the game and 13 inside their forward 50 revealed a side that can do it easy on the outside and grit their teeth and grind out a win on the outside.

In particular, Tim English is shaping as one of the best ruckman this year with three goals from 17 touches in blustery cold conditions in Ballarat. Adam Treloar is also showing his wares with an additional 29 disposals, five clearances and ten tackles in a performance revealing exactly what Collingwood are missing.

he Bulldogs are still yet to bring in their prized pick 1 in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan yet with Josh Bruce, Aaron Naughton, and English all ably representing the key forward department. The Bulldogs are becoming a terrifying prospect all around where I believe that they will beat more than the Kangaroos by 100 points this year.

So there you have in folks, thanks for reading I will see you next week.

The Crowd Says:

2021-04-16T13:40:36+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


Great concept. Not here to argue about your assessment of the Suns, although I don’t see them as having performed quite as badly as many are making out. I dropped out of my work tipping comp for two reasons: one was that with teams not named until way after teams are announced it’s just guesswork, plus my inclination to tip the Suns each week is my downfall every time. However, I don’t think the Suns problems start and finish with their lack of ruckmen because they were playing like this before Witts went down. Graham and Burgess (and Greenwood and Miller and Swallow) did enough in the stoppages to disrupt enough for the midfield to extract the ball, same as they did with the Eagles and Crows. Quality of inside ball going into 50 is the biggest problem, followed by lack of quality tall forwards and, as highlighted, the ball coming out of back 50 is getting turned over. If Matt Rowell didn’t get injured, would the Suns be 4 and zip? Josh Corbett comes into the side for Charlie Ballard, which means Graham and Burgess will play in defence while rotating the ruck, essentially marking up on English and ruck newbie, Jordan Sweet. The Suns just got a little better with scoring chances, stayed the same in the ruck and defence. No Caleb Daniel or Stef Martin for WB is a blow. The past 3 matchups between these sides have been decided by an average of 3 points on aggregate, with each being far closer than ladder position suggested. There’s just something about these two sides that says close result.

2021-04-16T13:12:42+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


I should think that early phantom drafts would favour SA kids because they actually played last year, while most kids outside of WA and SA didn’t get much footy at all. If you want a good guide of who to watch have a look at the special VFL vs AFL Academy game next week. Shifter has put together the best talent from around the country. His last team in 2019 defeated Casey, which had mostly AFL listed players. The Suns play Footscray tomorrow morning in the VFL. Austin Harris and Ned Stevens are turning out for the Suns, both from the AFL Academy 21 player being mentored by Tarkyn Lockyer.

2021-04-16T06:31:50+00:00

JamesH

Roar Guru


Heeney is lucky he didn't get at least fined, if not suspended, for a blatant punch. What's even more remarkable is that Chrisso looked at the incident and declared that Zerk-Thatcher didn't have a case to answer...?!?

2021-04-16T04:16:14+00:00

Rowdy

Roar Rookie


I had just been listening to https://youtu.be/JBNWkCsmqAY

2021-04-16T04:02:31+00:00

JamesH

Roar Guru


For some reason I started rapping that in my head as I read it.

2021-04-15T12:26:08+00:00

Cam

Guest


I still don't feel like the Bulldogs have played anyone at the top of their game... If they can knock of the Tigers in a few weeks they'll be the real deal. Having said that, they feel like they are a more reliable team than the past 4 years.

2021-04-15T10:55:14+00:00

JB

Guest


This thread is worth a read, if you haven't already. He changes his rankings through the season and gives regular player updates. https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/edps’s-cream-of-the-crop-2021.1260220/ There are a couple of other draft watchers with threads posting their own rankings and opinions on the board as well.

AUTHOR

2021-04-15T08:57:44+00:00

Charlie Keegan

Roar Guru


Yep I think you’re on the money with jamarra I’ll be keen to see how he does in the VFL over the next few weeks

AUTHOR

2021-04-15T08:56:01+00:00

Charlie Keegan

Roar Guru


Eh even if the bombers lose I’ll have em in the eight next week

AUTHOR

2021-04-15T08:54:54+00:00

Charlie Keegan

Roar Guru


I dunno about that I read his phantom draft and the first three he picked were all goal kicking midfielders from south Australia

2021-04-15T08:11:40+00:00

Chanon

Roar Rookie


Hi Chuck, can’t wait for Jamarra to join the three pillars in the forward line your absolutely correct about the dogs forward line being even more formidable than what they are at present. The Dogs All Australian mids are scary enough & with Crozier coming back our backline are good enough if & when the opposition get a chance to score!

2021-04-15T06:43:56+00:00

Kick to Kick

Roar Rookie


If you’re talking about the top six in your rankings the biggest question is over Geelong(6). But for an admitted umpiring mistake the Cats would be 1 & 3. The Cats have lost to to last year’s wooden spooner and have unconvincing wins over Brisbane (your 11) and Hawthorn (your 16). What I like about power rankings is that at their best (and this one is pretty solid) they’re unsentimental. They don’t get dewy eyed about past glories and they don’t factor in subjective notions about which team might soon weaken or return to form.

2021-04-15T05:58:21+00:00

Kick to Kick

Roar Rookie


The whole idea of power rankings is who is playing well and in form, or not in form , currently and in recent games. Such rankings should ignore reputation or last year’s ladder. As such this list is about right. Though I’d argue Richmond and Geelong are as high as they are on reputation and Adelaide deserves more credit for current form. If they maintain the rage the Bombers will start to make their way up these rankings. St Kilda has only shown its mettle once but if that continues the Saints will also climb. It’s hard to know where to place both the Eagles and Dockers because strong home form and poor away form are such a contrast.

2021-04-15T05:23:47+00:00

JB

Guest


Ed Pascoe from ESPN currently has 6 SA lads in his Top 20 picks for this year, and of the 3 in the Top 10 all midfielders. I doubt Horne is within reach. Though Arlo Draper and Mathew Roberts, both at South Adelaide could be starters. Sinn and Sonsie from Victoria are looking great too. I don't think the current list is at stage where you'd be entertaining spending 'the farm' on trying to entice an elite out of contract player from another club.

2021-04-15T05:04:54+00:00

Rowdy

Roar Rookie


I'd be genuinely glad to be proved wrong on Nicks. ----- I don't like the draft but I suppose unfettered capitalism is not good either.

2021-04-15T04:56:14+00:00

JB

Guest


I think Nick's has been underrated by many. Though I think the inclusions of Burns, Rahilly, Van Berlo as assistants and Bello in development has been important. I'd be ok with a lower finish this year and the opportunity to draft 1 of the top 5-6 midfielders. And who knows, if 1 of or both Crouch and McAsey leave, Adelaide could finish up a great draft hand in a year that looks like it going to be quite strong. This in addition to O'Loughlin and Dudley as possible NGA picks.

2021-04-15T04:32:29+00:00

Rowdy

Roar Rookie


I'm expecting more. I think 9-12 esp as they see their name 'up in lights' atm. And the Showdown games are fought without table position being an indicator of fortune. It just could be Nicks is better than l curmudgeonly haven't given him credit for. ------ I think you are wrong

2021-04-15T04:15:01+00:00

Blitz

Guest


WC don’t need as many i50’s as other teams due their scoring efficiency, but granted it was low. Also, Nic Nat is the #1 ranked player in the game for initiating scoring chains (94 points already) which is a huge score for one man. Are you ranking WC low due to low i50’s in one game? It seems like you’ve judged WC on 1.5 quarters and largely overlooked the 14.5 quarters, but hey, they’re your rankings!

2021-04-15T04:01:49+00:00

JB

Guest


And probably for good reason. Without doubt the next 2 games are very winnable. And possibly GWS at home in Round 7 depending on their form over the next couple of weeks. I think the Round 8 vs the Power will see a sharp decline in Adelaides fortunes, with 4 out the next 5 games against teams that I'd expect to make finals if not the top 4. In fact after Round 8, at this point in time, the only games I can legitimately see them winning are against Collingwood and then their double up games against Hawthorn and North in the back half of the season. I'm still expecting them to finish in 12-16 range on the ladder with around 6-8 wins.

2021-04-15T01:11:25+00:00

Christo the Daddyo

Roar Rookie


Fair call. Probably a case of generally needing to work smarter, not harder.

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