The weather is murky and India are up against it

There is not much debate that the best two teams have reached the final. With the reserve day, a result is much more likely but, this being England when it comes to Test matches, can they at least get the weather right? Time will tell.

The pundits are giving a slight edge to India which, to me, seems quite misplaced. If there were no rain or dramatic cloud cover, India would have an edge with their spinners but, with the proper game-time against England and the grim weather forecast, New Zealand is much better suited to the conditions.

If the weather forecast is accurate, taking a draw out of the equation, I would contend that New Zealand has a 65p er cent edge over India. This edge is primarily a result of better suited, acclimatised pace attack and the likely error India will commit of playing two spinners.

There is a good selection headache in both camps but, interestingly, the batting ability of New Zealand’s bowlers enables them to pick a more attacking and varied line-up. In close games between evenly matched teams, 50-70 additional runs down the order could very well change the game.

Bowling attacks win Test matches, and here New Zealand has an edge in traditional Kiwi/English conditions. India’s pace attack, on the other hand, has the edge over them in the typical conditions of the subcontinent, Australia, and South Africa.

While all the Indian seamers can move the ball too, they are more hit the deck kind of bowlers. Their pace and attacking lines are more suited to hard wickets. They are also more accustomed to short bursts in conjunction with their spinners.

Also, New Zealand would be much more comfortable bowling the slightly fuller length, with the bowling group getting a good workout against England. While batting, they can add 50-70 runs, while the Indian pace attack is all traditional number elevens.

If India is to match the runs down the order, they ought to play the spinners. With Hardik Pandya not reliably fit, India has no seam-bowling allrounder. Ravichandran Ashwin is better suited against the left-hand bats of the Black Caps, would get more purchase with Trent Boult and Neil Wagner in the New Zealand line-up and has terrific form, but Ravindra Jadeja offers so much more in the batting department. So to lengthen the batting, India will go with a combination of three pacers and two spinners.

With batting too, in overcast conditions, moisture in the pitch, the Black Caps seem to be quite superior to India’s – the batsman put a heavy price on their wickets, bide their time and have the technique to play the moving ball well. So collectively, they have the better top five.

The inclusion of Devon Conway has essentially plugged the only weak point in their line-up. But, equally, India has major question marks over their opening combination in these conditions. Both the openers have limited experience and look pretty susceptible to moving ball.

Against top teams, Virat Kohli’s form, like Kane Williamson’s, hasn’t been great for a while, but New Zealand has enough batting resources to cover such dips. Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajankya Rahane, Shubman Gill, Rohit Sharma, on the other hand, would be asked major questions against the moving ball and have struggled to answer them in the recent past.

Converting half chances in a potentially truncated game would also prove pivotal, and there seems to be a gulf between the two sides in slip catching. New Zealand can even catch the wind from the looks of it, and India’s slip catching has always been a concern.

The batting form of Rishabh Pant is much better, but BJ Watling has a good record in England and New Zealand, and thus has the game to even out any advantage. However, Pant would also have to contend with a long tail.

Teams

New Zealand
Devon Conway, Tom Latham, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, BJ Watling, Kyle Jamieson, Neil Wagner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, leaving one spot. I think these ten are automatic picks, and the major question is around the inclusion of the spinner. While Moeen Ali has spun England twice to victories versus India here, I would still back the pacemen.

With frequent interruptions, the use of the fifth bowling option is going to be limited. The Black Caps should pick Colin de Grandhomme. The four fast bowlers should get the job done, and De Grandhomme is to provide rest. His cagey bowling and fast runs down the order seem to be a better reward versus potential turn for Ajaz Patel and likely release of pressure. Also, the first innings would be much more significant than the second, and Patel will likely be a liability in the first dig.

Do the four pacemen pick themselves? Matt Henry has been impressive during his county stint and the second Test versus England and, on paper, could be better suited to the conditions, say compared to Neil Wagner. Still, I would have Wagner on my team sheet – the guy has a huge heart, a huge pain-barrier and performs when one is really against it.

His weapon of choice is short menacing deliveries, but he can bowl the traditional lengths when the conditions demand. Trent Boult is an automatic pick because all of India’s top and middle-order batters are right-handers. The choice thus would be in between Tim Southee and Henry – Southee’s experience in these conditions puts him ahead.

(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

India
Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane, Rishabh Pant, Ravichandran Ashwin, Jasprit Bumrah, Ishant Sharma and Mohammed Siraj would be my automatic picks, leaving one spot.

Among the pacers, Mohammad Shammi has improved quite a lot, but his lengths still remain shorter than they need to be. Without warmups, it is tough to say who would be in a better bowling rhythm. Coming off an injury, Ishant Sharma wasn’t at his best against England a few months back. Shammi too is returning from injury. In times of quarantines, game time has been further compromised, and no amount of warmups can replace actual competitive cricket, so the Indian pace attack is a definite underdog.

I would have Ashwin in all my probable XIs. Yes, Jadeja has better batting, has comparable bowling stats, but Ashwin has good form, can trouble the left-handers in opposition, would benefit from footmarks created by Boult and Wagner.

Playing four bowlers and Hanuma Vihari could have been an option, but I don’t think Vihari has done enough to merit selection in the first XI. Jadeja, the bowling allrounder, and Vihari are pretty close in terms of expected value.

With cloud cover expected on all days, I would go with four pacers and Ashwin. Here is where I expect India to trip strategically. They would like to play Jadeja as the second spinner/bowling allrounder. Without Jadeja, the batting is thin, but in tough batting conditions, the Indian batting would already be up against a better line-up, and either the top six can bat or adding Jadeja to the nonexistent batting ability of the tail won’t make much of a difference.

India has even gone with two spinners in such conditions in the past, and the results have been disastrous. New Zealand would prefer facing a spinner as the second change, after finding it difficult versus the pacers. While moisture in the pitch can aid spinners, backup pacers reduce stress on the front line pacers and provide a cushion against someone struggling first up. As an example, at Lord’s, on a difficult pitch, under overcast skies, with a few injuries to the pace attack, India picked two spinners and was duly spanked by England in 2018.

Bowling first would be ideal. And the conditions could be very different across the first innings of both teams, so inserting the other team would be the likely call.

If in the unlikely case the forecast turns out to be wrong and the sun is out, the pitch is hard, both teams would look to bat first. Such a situation would be ideal for India, and only then should they prefer Jadeja over a pacer.

So the choice basically comes down to all-out attack versus conservativism in Patel versus de Grandhomme and Shami versus Jadeja. Even in overcast conditions, I still think India is going to play two spinners and three pacers, and it would likely be a mistake.

Rain is expected throughout the match, with long breaks from thunderstorms too. Leading up to the first day, the pitch is going to remain undercover. The Rose Bowl pitch dries out quickly so, under clear skies, any assistance from moisture will last only for a day.

India would be hoping the weather allows the curator to prepare a dry, hard surface with pace and bounce. Not that Kyle Jamieson and Neil Wager won’t like it, but India’s pace attack would prefer it over a relatively sluggish surface that still has ample moisture. A hard surface with pace will also bring their spinners into the game sooner. New Zealand would have an edge in overcast conditions with disruptions from the rain.

I expect New Zealand to drive home the advantage if they insert India in. The same can’t be said of India because they might play only three pacers and because their preparation, due to quarantine and rain, is not great.

And so the maths (not accounting for a rain-affected draw), if New Zealand inserts India, they’re 90 per cent chances to win. If India does the same, it’s 60-40 in their favour. Overall, it’s 65-35 in favour of the Black Caps.

India also has been a notoriously slow starter on away tours but they have the belief and skill to turn the tables, much like how New Zealand did in the 2019 World Cup. Both teams have been fairly close to the top in world events and have not won anything significant for a while.

India has many Test specialists who recognise this to be the only opportunity they would get playing in a World Cup final. Both teams have come a long way under Williamson and Kohli, have great cultures and respect for this form of the game. This should be an intriguing contest with a focus squarely on cricket.