The Geelong Cats have come along way this season. After a mediocre start of two wins and two losses, they have gone on a whopping run of thirteen wins and three losses, beating other premiership fancies of Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.
Recently, the Geelong Cats have a unique list management technique, often trading out draft picks that could be spent on younger players, to gain experience and ready-made footballers that will slot straight into their starting 22.
Players such as Isaac Smith, Jeremy Cameron, and Shaun Higgins have made a huge difference to the make-up of the forward line down at the Cattery.
The Cats, with an average playing age of 27.5 years, the highest ever since recording began, and average games played of 88, they are the oldest and most experienced out of any team in the competition, and with ten players over the age of 30 on their list, they do not have many attempts left a premiership glory with this ageing list.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Thee term ‘premiership profile’ gets thrown around a lot around this time of the season as the month of September looms. A ‘premiership profile’ indicates how strong a team is in four certain areas of their game. These four areas are ball movement, defending ball movement, clearances, and post-clearance contested possessions.
Despite there being six teams who would fancy themselves as a real premiership hopeful, there is really only three favourites, the top of the table Melbourne Demons, the Western Bulldogs in second, and the Geelong Cats who currently sit in third.
Of these three teams, only one team is in the top four in all of the ‘premiership profile’ criterion, the Geelong Cats. The Cats sit second for ball movement, fourth for defending ball movement, second for clearances, and second for post-clearance contested possession differential.
The Melbourne Demons however only have two of their criteria in the top four, being ball movement (third), and post-clearance contested possession differential (first), with their ability to defend ball movement being sixth in the competition and clearances 11th.
We know that the Melbourne Demons often play an extra defender in Christian Salem meaning that they have one less player at a stoppage which has clearly worked in the past, but many pundits including Leigh Montagna have said that while this works in the home-and-away season, he doubts it will hold up in finals footy, especially later in September.
The Western Bulldogs sit second on the ladder with a percentage of 138.1per cent but only have three of the four criterion in the top four. Clearances and defending ball movement are the best in the competition, with the post-clearance possession difference in fourth. But the ball movement is 11th out of the 18 teams.
Despite the ball movement being down, the ability for the Bulldogs to get clearances from stoppages almost nullifies the ball movement problems.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
This Geelong team clearly has the best ‘premiership profile’ with all four criterion being in the top four, but also with the finals experience they have. Admittedly, the Bulldogs have experience from the magical 2016 run, and Demons from their 2018 preliminary finals berth, but other than that those teams have struggled to win finalist recent years.
Whereas, the Cats have had the ability to stay in the top eight almost every year from 2008, making finals a normality to their season. They also have a wealth of premiership and grand final experience from 2020, and other players they got in free agents and trade periods over the past few years.
The Cats must win the premiership this season however due to their ageing list, and emerging talent who are unable to get consistent matches the the AFL team. This Geelong Cats team have an average playing age of over 27.5 years, the oldest ever, with the second oldest playing age being North Melbourne in 2016.
At the end of the 2016 season, many of the older players, including Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo, and Micheal Firrito weren’t not offered contracts to play on.
If they do not win this year they have to start delisting, and trading players that may still have some value left. Players like Josh Jenkins, Zach Touhy, and Rhys Stanley should all be told to look for new homes as there may still be some currency for them.
Even Cameron Guthrie could seek a place at a club like Melbourne or Sydney who will still be a challenger in three to four years unlike the Geelong Cats. Guthrie is out of contract at the end of the year and if there is no premiership success it is not unfathomable to see him move to another team in which the 28 year-old can potentially have premiership glory with.
This would surely give the Cats a handy first-round pick to bolster their draft stocks.
If these players were to leave it would open the door for Quinton Narkle to get consistent games instead of being the 24th man most weeks, and Charlie Constable who is averaging almost 33 disposals each week and would be in almost any other teams first twenty-two, cannot seem to get a run at the Cattery.
There have been opportunities this season for Nathan Kreuger, Max Holmes, Jordan Clark, and Sam De Koning, as well as others, but for the Cats to be a good team in the future like they have been in the last 15 or so years, they must be consistently playing this kids otherwise they will seek opportunities at other clubs.
Patrick Dangerfield (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Geelong should the heavy favourites for the flag this year through their ability to have a well rounded game and defend against the most potent of attacks, but with their ageing list and young players who will most likely seek other opportunities if they are not given a chance at Geelong, surely this is their last shot at premiership glory in the near future.
Despite Friday night’s loss to the eighth placed Greater Western Sydney Giants the Cats still sit in the top 4, two games clear of the Brisbane Lions in fifth and Sydney in sixth. They will play St Kilda this round at Kardinia Park with a time and date yet to be confirmed at the time of writing.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Years in the dark with a brief moment in the sun, or years of playing finals and at least having a chance. The latter every time. You can almost measure clubs success by looking at membership no's. That would suggest most people would prefer a team that is competitive to long years in the bottom half.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Pete, some supporters find it obligatory to hate other clubs. I like to see the pies dogs blues and North play well. I like Hawthorn to be somewhere there because Cats and Hawks have played some of the best games you'll see when they are both contending. I even wished Richmond well after being witches hats for so long, it was nice for them to have their day in the sun, but it is now over. Their demise hopefully will dampen some of their supporters insufferable hubrous. Their memory is stuck in a four year time frame but football moves on. Yesterdays heroes are tomorrows zeroes. Win or lose I wont be forever banging on about Geelongs' injury list if we lose.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Dont complain Birdman, you've done well out of the Geelong Falcons.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Home grown talent? Can we have Parish and Walsh back for starters please?
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
That sounds fair enough, you don't hear the media mentioning that you've got those young guys coming through as well, typical doom and gloom.lol. Cox will probs struggle to get a spot somewhere then not sure if anybody else out there needs some back up as an insurance policy. Maybe the suns to help witts back from injury.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
Doubtful Adam. We already have 2 young developing rucks in reserve plus Darcy Fort as back up, so I don't see it happening. We also already have a fourth "tall" in Rata so no point/need for another, so unless there's something I'm missing which only the coaching staff would know, I don't see us going after Cox. I think local boy Sean Darcy is the only external ruckman who interests the cats atm, and he's signed on at Freo until 2023, so we'll have to wait and see if he eventually returns home after that contract runs out.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
I reckon about half those boys will still be playing in 2023, and playing well. Higgins, Hendo and Selwood the likely three to be gone by then. Danger is contracted to 2024 so he'll be around for a while still. He looks great atm but if he gets banged up towards the end of his career he can always play as a full time forward and get an extra few years out of the body. The replacements are in development but of course there are no guarantees they'll be as good as those going out. Also in 2023 a few quality Geelong falcon boys from around the league run out of contract, so there might be a mature aged recruit or two coming in as well. Simpson played on the weekend and played well. He is a quality player and will be long term prospect if he gets his body right. Injuries stopped him this year, otherwise he is easily in the best 22.
The real SC
Roar Rookie
Simpson only played one match this year. In the next 5 years there won’t be a lot of current Geelong players in the squad. Selwood, Hawkins, Tuohy, Hendo, Higgins, Smith are in their twilight of their careers. They will eventually be replaced come 2023 AFL season. Lachlan Henderson is out of contract and should retire in Oct 2021. Jeremy Cameron who turns 30 in 2023 is going to be the main key forward for the Geelong team. I think Dangerfield could still play on in 2023, but he needs to ensure that he stays fit and suspension free.
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
Lmfao its funny when the shoes on the opposite foot isn't it. Go tigerssss.lol.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Adam tiger supporter’s are stressing, purchased a bottle of red actually two bottles to keep the wifey happy bloody tiger supporters are pacing she’s drinking a glass of wine & pacing up & down driving me nuts told her to calm down it’s only a game of footy :silly:
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
Random question for ya man. Do you think you guys might take a punt on Mason Cox. Supposedly thats the one spot your a little bit vulnerable in, whether thats just a media hype up and the club and supporters think that is another question but I've always thought he's more a ruck/forward rather than forward/ruck but he wouldn't cost you much, I'm not sure how your going for young ruckman coming through but he might be worth trying and at worst a decent little insurance policy.?
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
lmfao. Bahahahaha. I Love it. :laughing: :laughing:
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Nah chicken out couldn’t place a bet on the disaster train! Both of those teams are like country trains on the same line on a head on collision with each other the train drivers have fallen asleep at the wheel & the passengers are doing there thing listening to lift music & jigging to the terrible beat bloody collateral damage but we are sitting back at headquarters goin let them crash cause they need to derail & start afresh! The dude abides!
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
Lmfao my t-shirts and jumpers are next.on the list apparently and she's already been whinging about my house tracking apparently once they've got those little fur balls or whatever they're called from washing them, its time for the bin, I think the opposite once you've got them you know they're perfectly worn in. Go figure.lol.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Sh.t man l suffer the same my wife chucks out underwear constantly & my fav t’shirts & singlets don’t understand she tells me l suffer from caveman identity crisis l mean gee man what’s wrong with that l see that as a compliment but they say clean up or ship out & l laugh with shovel in hand & boots & tell her l guess my shoes are next And she goes yea they are in the bin! Go figure
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
money on the mediocre. :laughing: I think I've peed the gf off, shes gone and thrown out all my nicely worn and snug fitting briefs and replaced them with cardboard ones I swear, apparently im the only male in the world that doesn't replace his underwear every 12months at max whether you need too or not.lol. :laughing:
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
money on the mediocre. :laughing: Umm I think i may of pissed the gf off, she's gone through my underwear draw and thrown out or my nicely worn and snug fitting briefs and replaced them with cardboard ones i swear. Apparently I'm the only guy in the world that doesn't replace his underwear every 12months at Max whether you need to or not.lol. :laughing:
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Yep l’m going to do a crazy thing & put money on the purple people
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
Nah Simpson is a quality player with a big future, no way he gets delisted because of an injury ravaged season. If he can get his body right he'll be a midfielder for the Cats for the next 10 years, I guarantee it. There's a reason he was in the GF team last season, internally he is very highly rated.
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
You'd think wc but then there form has been so spasmodic of freo were ever a chance it'd be now wouldn't it.