I have long been a fan of the Grant Fox and Wayne Smith school that your eyes should tell you what is going on during a rugby game, but good data will confirm your views.
But drawing conclusions purely from numbers without context, in any field, is fraught with danger
The world of rugby data is about to take a huge leap forward.
I was put onto this by the BBC Rugby podcast, but the primary source article is by Charlie Morgan, the rugby reporter for the UK Telegraph.
He is worth a read for those who want to keep an eye on the English game, and to his credit is up early watching and commenting on our timezone games on a regular basis.
This new development is called expected points (xP).
Instead of having a database that produces raw numbers counting actions, xP assigns a value to each and every action taken by a player to ascertain contribution to a team score.
The values of each action are predefined (I would think teams and coaches would value different things and therefore actions may have different loadings accordingly) and when totalled give a value of a player’s contribution to a scoring outcome.
Winning the ball back, for example, is a high positive score event.
Here’s the rub: they also provide a value to the cost of errors, which contribute to the scores of the opposition.
Hallelujah, nowhere to hide!
An example given is the wide ranging, offloading Fijian Lock Leone Nakarawa. The article points out that his last season for Glasgow ended with a negative xP score because of how often he gave the ball away.
There are still some clear gaps – how do you score a player who has gone missing, isn’t doing his job or, worse, is leaving it to someone else who doesn’t do it as well and cops the negative points despite trying to do the right thing for the team? From my read, these guys are well on the way to covering this and scoring the game more broadly.
The concept has been in development for some time and the podcast hinted it is in use by the coaches of England and Leicester already. But xP is about to step into the public as the United Rugby Championship (why does Benetton – the product, not the rugby team – leap into my head every time I read that title) use it during their TV coverage. I wonder whether this calm or inflame arguments about players.
The name of the company driving this is Oval Insights (they might be good statistical analysts, but they weren’t up all-night thinking of that name) but their work looks likely to take rugby analysis into the levels we see from some of the bigger world sports – watch a baseball game with an American just for a sense of how sports use numbers to assess outcomes and how quickly the public adopt it in depth.
For mine, you cannot significantly improve anything you can’t correctly measure. Nothing quite like empirical outcomes for assigning personal accountability either.
Rugby union looks like it is about to take a huge leap forward and the URC fans are those who are going to benefit first.
Connor33
Guest
Money ball rugby style, Highlander. With the increased money coming into the game, good on Oval for having a crack at this—and thank you for enlightening us.
Highlander
Roar Guru
75pc crowds
moaman
Roar Guru
Are there no crowds this week? I hadn't heard that. Think the Pumas will be hard to predict with all that is going on in their camp. Expect the 'Boks to throw the kitchen sink at it but hope too the ABs will be more intelligent and accurate. The Aussies will need to show consistency.
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
Grandfather killed off Crete in 1941, Grand-uncle served North Africa. Got very cranky if one asked anything about it. My father had an enduring interest in the war, which would have been a big influence on me. Later, the nature of the struggle appealed (the fight v fascism, although one comes to realise that this was less in the minds of many than one might hope). Very relieved that I can study conflict in the abstract, without ever having had to engage in the reality. How do you feel about the rematches this weekend? The sightseers being absent will probably ensure the Oz v Argentina game is a bit lop sided and i suspect that SA might be in for a hard day at the office. Be interesting to see if both sides can get back up after the physical and emotional outlay of last week.
moaman
Roar Guru
Had an English uncle (by marriage) who brought back some caps etc from the Desert campaign.......and my family had a cut down bayonet for some reason I never wondered about until now! :laughing:
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
Love Beevor's ability to convey the drama. I bought his book on Stalingrad and found it so gripping I ended up reading it all in one sitting, finishing exhausted at about 2am. Are you from the generation that still grew up somewhat in the shadow of WW2? Some of my early memories are of my grand uncle's webbing and service revolver and mucking about with them. I have often wondered if there wasn't some disappointed that there wasn't still a round up the spout with my name on it, but such is the fortune of youth.
moaman
Roar Guru
Is Vietnam your ‘thing’ Moaman, or is it more about following the talented Mr Burns, where ever he goes? Not my thing at all mate. Watched the first episode of the Burns doco out of curiosity really coupled with the admission I didn't really know much about it. The series was excellent from the point-of-view of someone not coming into it with a wealth of knowledge. Most of my 'war' reading has been about WW2 actually. Deighton and Sir Antony Beevor etc.
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
I haven't but I will put it on my list. I am really a WW2 man, though having been lucky enough to teach senior history during a decade long break from law I got up to speed on Vietnam, WW1 and pursued a side passion for the Napoleonic period. Now I am back in the legal salt mines I only have time for the minutiae of the Eastern Front. I did quite enjoy McNamara's exercise in self-exculpation dressed up as confession in Fog of War. Is Vietnam your 'thing' Moaman, or is it more about following the talented Mr Burns, where ever he goes?
winston
Roar Rookie
Sounds familiar to what Tabai Matson talks about in the breakdown rugby show. Quantifying the effect that an individual action has on the score line. Can’t help but think of one of my favourite sports movies, Moneyball. “He gets on base”
Highlander
Roar Guru
The bit that has always concerned me that old data never captures is the value of key events – consider how those 2 needless penalties from Kramer took the pressure off the wallabies at the weekend, but in the public stats it has the same value as a scrum penalty on halfway This system appears to go some way to correcting that
Highlander
Roar Guru
I will keep an eye on the URC and report back
Digby
Roar Guru
This is excellent and long overdue! :thumbup:
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Thanks Highlander it'll be interesting to see how this works out. I've always been a bit sceptical of the statistics that are usually captured for rugby. Mainly because they often show the loosing team with better statistics. Rugby is such a complex game compared to a lot of other similar games. mainly I think because it's the only one that allows for contest after the initial collision and so you have many moving parts, many rules and a referee who applies them subjectively based on a number of critical points but mainly the picture he/she sees from where they are positioned in relation to the incident. Makes for a fascinating game but where simple statistics have little value.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Very encouraging Highlander, we have had some players over the last 20 years who have avoided statistical mistakes by leaving it up to others to do the tough stuff. I hope this uncovers this despicable practice in professional rugby.
Highlander
Roar Guru
Sorry - i didnt take anything the wrong way - just having a chuckle
Big A
Roar Rookie
so was i Highlander - maybe you're just more polite than me
Bluffboy
Roar Rookie
That maybe so my friend, but that involves slimmer-taller versions of myself :unhappy:
Highlander
Roar Guru
At least I was being polite ????
SB
Guest
Saw it reported somewhere (rugbypass maybe?) went back to check the tape... oh its clear! 4.40 on the match clock i think... To be fair there's not much in it, beyond the usual rough-housery that goes on, and Bridge gets up with a bit of a smile and a 'fair enough'' shake of the head... but he did play rattled after that point, so do we mark him a little easier for "mitigating factors"? BB copped a face full of sprigs in the first Fiji game and was less effective after that, is another one!
Big A
Roar Rookie
hang on a sec Highlander - gotta get my head out of the sand - what did you say - ha ha