Every year in trade week, clubs spend most of their time engaged in tense negotiations that often get played out very publicly and just as often finally get agreed upon with something as petty as a fourth rounder coming back to break the deadlock.
What in the hell was so important about getting a future fourth-round pick that probably won’t even get used?
If it seems to happen a lot then it isn’t your imagination because 16 current and future fourth- and fifth-round picks featured in eight of the trades in this past trade week, with the likelihood that many more fourth-round picks will change hands by the end of national draft live trading.
In the first deal of this year’s trade period, the Suns and the Pies had a huge swap of picks, with 2021 picks 22, 46, 58, 79 plus a future fourth rounder traded for 2022 second-, third- and fourth-round picks.
There’s a lot to unpack there, especially that pick 79, which is technically the Suns’ fifth rounder, so why does Collingwood want all of these junk picks? Very simply, picks don’t just represent points when it comes to bid matching, they can be used to move up the order to match a late bid.
The Pies have highly rated Youseph Dib as an next generation academy-tied player this year, so once most of their picks are burnt by matching Nick Daicos, they have to try to cobble together more draft picks to get out of this phase of their rebuild with some decent players to go with their father-son star.
An oft-forgotten fact of bid matching is that after the first round the discount of 20 per cent is waived and replaced by a flat 197 point hit, so late-round picks can be used to match anything that comes after pick 57, while even bids in the third round can be matched by a late junk pick and the difference in points goes forward as a deficit against the club’s first pick in the following year’s trade period.
So it follows that in the next trade, the Cats sent Nathan Kreuger and pick 55 to the Pies for pick 41, which suits Geelong because they need picks in the early rounds to restock their list, while Collingwood would be hopeful that picks 27, 36, 46 and 48 will be enough to meet the points required to match a bid for Daicos (probably with a couple more pick swaps trading back to maximise points), leaving picks 55, 58, 78 and 79 for the late draft where they’ll hope to also match Dib and find some hidden gems.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Then came the real mega trade of 2021, with Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs involved in a four-way trade that came down to trading three fourths and a fifth-round pick to get the deal done, with the Saints fronting pick 49 in return for the three fourth rounders.
The obvious benefits were to the Demons, Crows and Bulldogs, who all found advantage in the trade, but with St Kilda getting such scant return their involvement seems baffling.
But here’s the thing. St Kilda’s 2021 next generation academy group is stacked and they are now a little worried that Marcus Windhager or even Mitchito Owens could be poached in the first round without the ability for the Saints to match under new next generation academy rules, while Jack Peris, son of Nova and the late Daniel Batman, is another who may only require a late pick to find his way to Moorabbin.
St Kilda has preserved all of their future picks and has the Crows’ future fourth, so look for them to be trying to secure some more mid-round picks to use to match bids and even buy back in if they use up all their points on the first couple of players.
The much maligned Will Brodie trade had three fourth-round picks involved, which seemed superfluous to a deal that already gave a picks and points advantage to Fremantle. However, as the Suns didn’t need their pair of fourth rounders this year, they became steak knives in obtaining the future picks they desired to resume their own bid matching next year as well as dumping a salary that was going to cost them $600,000.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/AFL Media/Getty Images)
In addition to those fascinating trades, North Melbourne asked for a future fourth to settle the Robbie Tarrant/Callum Coleman-Jones trade, Geelong wanted the same to accompany Jonathon Ceglar in exchange for their future third and then they sent their own future fourth with Jordan Clark to Fremantle, while the Suns’ future fourth-round pick that started trade week’s first deal wound up getting sent on with Max Lynch from Collingwood to the Hawks.
Clearly, these picks have some value or they wouldn’t factor into trades so much, but some clubs have no use for them because they aren’t historically reliable as speculator picks that late in any draft nor can all clubs use that many picks.
Nonetheless, the fact that even fifth-round picks changed hands this year suggests that list managers at certain clubs are eager to stockpile late picks while others want such picks for next year, while others still are trying to offload them and finding some value for them where most observers can see none.
Bid matching has much to do with these late picks becoming valuable again as they haven’t been since the early years of the draft when list sizes were huge and clubs picked as many players as they could well past the sixth and seventh rounds.
While some clubs are really just hoping that having that extra selection will deliver a quality player against the odds, the thing driving the increase in acquiring late picks is both to do with bid matching club-tied players and the compression of the middle rounds of the draft due to picks being burned as the top rated club-tied father-son and academy players in the draft are bid on and claimed.
(Photo by Mark Dadswell/Getty Images)
To most people, this compromise of the draft seems to be an imposition because it moves early-round picks back several spots. However, with the trend of clubs trading back into the 40s and 50s to build points for bid matching, what in fact happens to later picks is that they only hop back one spot when a bid is matched and then the pick climbs up the order by as many spots as picks chewed up by the points required.
Multiply this effect several times over and what you have is certain late picks coming in a long way from their original value as club-tied players have their bids matched with multiple picks for the points required that are subsequently removed from the draft order.
The later this occurs into the fourth round, the more clubs begin to pass on their remaining selections as they use up their available list spots and picks start to come up the order, in some cases by more than 20 or 30 places.
In coming weeks, myself and another Roar regular will be analysing previous drafts to demonstrate this phenomenon and prove this hypothesis with hard data, at which time we will attempt to predict how the fourth- and fifth-round picks highlighted in this article will be deployed to best effect.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Who is the best 20 to 24 year-old in the SANFL? WWT Eagles got cleaned out last year, but they came back this year and won another flag, while Glenelg has some decent players too. Arlo Draper is the obvious target at 12, or Nas Wanganeen-Milera or Matthew Roberts, with even the chance of matching a bid for Jase Burgoyne. If I'm Adelaide, I'd trade back out of 4 to 7 and 15 (with a 33 going back) and take two SA boys, which gives Port second pick, providing other clubs don't get up and pick them.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Yeah.Like you said Port could trade 12 to say melbourne and get more picks but Chris Davies said they wanted to get lower in the draft.They must be keen on someone there.The players they delisted and what is available as in dregs from other clubs confuses me.Will see what unfolds I suppose
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yes, it is a mess, but there are a number of ways to get the list back into shape from here. Presently, there are 31 primary listed players and you need a minimum of 36. You have 6 rookies. Sam Mayes was also delisted, but he'll join the rookie list. Mixed messages coming out of Port today, with Trent tacked onto the list after the original announcement was made. Martin Frederick was a B rookie, so he'll be either promoted to A so he can play or even to the main list. Port might just use 12 and take a points deficit in 2022 on their first pick. They can trade back to get points for Burgoyne or trade in from next year's draft. Whatever, they just have to get to 36 primary players by the end of the draft. The rookie draft is a place to pick up some players, but it looks to me that Port plan to go into the preseason with a very light list, which they can add to in the preseason SSP and MSRD. Draper and Wanganeen-Milera would be good and Jase might given he's club-tied. Keep an eye out for the 12 pick to be traded and a lot of action on the second and third days of the draft. I'm wondering what SANFL talent can be picked up with some speculative picks.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Thom,help me out.Port have delisted Trent Burgoyne,Leinert,woodcock,goldsack and garner. Rockliff and hartlett have retired and ladhams left.Got Finlayson and have pick 12 to replenish our stocks plus 4 late picks that will hopefully get Jase.What is happening!!8 players out 3 players in.Am I missing something
Maxy
Roar Rookie
not sure how many points they need for Jase,bit of talk they might go for wanganeen milera or draper in the draft if they come available at pick 12
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Depends on which story you believe. Jackson Edwards was part of the infamous camp after the 2017 grand final and by the end of 2018 he was delisted. Luke Edwards reserved the right to talk to other clubs and resisted being linked to the Crows. Damian Barrett pushed this narrative all year in 2020. Partisan Crows media pretended it was the other way around, with SEN SA maintaining that it was the Crows who informed the family that they wouldn't be nominating him as a father/son, therefore not being able to match a bid, but that they would select him with their final pick if he was available and they still had room. Which story do you believe?
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Interesting that Luke edwards was so annoyed at the crows that he refused to be drafted there.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
In 2020, Luke Edwards, son of Tyson, went to the Eagles in the 4th round after refusing to nominate for the Crows, who delisted his brother. In 2019, Jy Farrar was a rare 4th round pick by the Suns (he is closely related to Sam Petrevski-Seton, Shane McAdam and Ash Johnson, all AFL-listed players), who played a good part of the season in defence. Michael Frederick was picked by Freo a pick later. In 2018, AFL regulars Lachie Shultz, Connor Idun, Lachie Sholl, Brayden Ham and Caleb Graham were picked in the 4th and 5th rounds. Luke Ryan was pick 66 and is an All-Australian. Jake Waterman was taken at pick 77 in 2016, 6th round and Mr Irrelevant. 51 games, 49 goals.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Suns seem to have the ability to pre-list Academy players onto their rookie lists too. As things stand, if no player can be found in delisted free agency, then the club may yet pick 3 or 4 Academy players, 2 on the primary list, 1 in the last remaining rookie A spot and 1 to take Luke Towey's rookie B spot. So far there's nobody in DFA that I rate. There are a few in the SANFL and WAFL I like, but they'll have to make it through undrafted to the rookie draft. What experienced player/s can you see coming to the Suns? Casboult?
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Well, the ruck division is now set = Jarrod Witts, Mabior Chol, Ned Moyle, Matt Conroy, Sam Day, Chris Burgess, Caleb Graham and Patrick Murtagh. Importantly, up to 4 of them could play in the same side as necessary. The "Specimen" could potentially have played last year, but the joke of a VFL season just gave him no continuity and he's only 196cm anyway. Played a game in defence and showed some promise after being unable to press his case for senior selection as a ruck/forward. Ned Moyle was ostensibly brought in to help out in the ruck, but missed a month with a combination of quarantine, stupid VFL byes and cancelled games (1 game was cancelled after 8 minutes and by midnight all the players had packed, flown to Melbourne, checked into accommodation, got covid tested and were just eating dinner to prepare for a midday game the next day against the Demons). He ended the season with 5 VFL games, 3 of them for Collingwood, but the 2 games for the Suns he was outstanding. Mabior Chol can ruck on his own, but you'd rather see him as a ruck/forward. His game against Brisbane where he won the match off his own boot was incredible. At 24 he's only just coming into his prime as a ruck, but we want him up forward most of the time and providing a marking target up the ground. Matt Conroy will be back for preseason and is a long term project. The kid can ruck and kick goals, but needs a couple of years banging away in the VFL before he can be taken seriously.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Austin Harris is 178cm, 70kgs - lightning quick with a laser left foot that can hit targets 50m upfield laceout on the chest. Forward pressure, goalsense and score involvements as a forward flanker in the VFL, rebound 50s, transition into attack and hard gut running up and down the field in the NAB League. AFL Academy. Will Bella is 195cm, 97kg - built like a brick shed, offers strong contested marking, can chop out in the ruck, kicks goals from 55m+, has strong leading patterns and is mobile for a big bloke. Proven ability against AFL listed players in the VFL, plays head and shoulders above the rest at U19 level for Queensland. Bodhi Uwland 185cm, 84kg - "plays like Luke Hodge" sums him up, as Chris Doerre from ESPN said. Hard as a nut defender, crashes into contests, tackles like a Queenslander and has the versatility to play forward or back. Suns Academy MVP and rated late first to second round. Ned Stevens - 196cm, 90kg - smooth moving ruck/forward, great overhead and below his knees, runs all day and has the ball skills to convert on the scoreboard and play a part in score involvements from further up the field. Injured in 2021, but was dominating as a 17yo in the NT. I want them all, obviously.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Port have some number crunching to do in order to trade back but still have a pick inside a bid for Jase Burgoyne. Have a look at what Sydney did last year to trade up and get inside the bid for Braeden Campbell which they used on Logan McDonald, then trade back to have the picks to neatly match Errol Gulden. Port needs to do something like that to get a good player and still have enough pick points to match. Trade with Melbourne giving up 12 for 17, 37 and 49, for example. 17 goes on a top SA kid, points for Burgoyne and then the leftover points get added to pick 63, which will give you a pick somewhere in the 3rd round.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Fair I don’t think the Suns are ever gonna be without a ruckman ever again. But I also don’t think the suns really want for all that much. The improvement that is going to occur is going to come from the natural improvement of the players they’ve selected at the drAft over the last few years
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yeah, I think that makes sense for both, with something from 2022 coming back to Brisbane. The Eagles need highish picks to collect a few of these top 30 WA players, but the Lions could just do with one higher pick. I wonder if Richmond can't get what they want at 7 if they'd ask for a straight swap. Except I don't think Mac Andrew gets past GWS or the Suns. Mac and Mab devastating opposition backlines in the air. I think they both like Josh Gibcus too.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
True but I think it depends who’s still on the board at that point I think the lions could almost certainly throw both their picks to west coast of Mac Andrew is still on the board at pick 10
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
West Coast can still trade back as long as they retain a pick in the first round. Richmond could be a potential trade partner. Or Brisbane.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yes that’s part of the reason west coast were so quiet at the trade table this year. I know the Blues will have to use next years selection at the draft although you can get special dispensation from the AFL to trade out several first round picks I know Geelong did
George13
Guest
Yes, this year clubs have to bring in 3 new players to senior list. Usually through the draft but they can also promote rookies to senior list. Suns have also the option to pre-list academy kids directly to senior list.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
It is confusing because people keep saying every club has to pick 3 players, but what they actually have to do is add 3 players to their primary list through the draft. Picking players in the national draft is the most likely way, but elevating a rookie is another acceptable method. The Suns have a concession where they can put Academy players on their rookie list before the draft, so it is assumed that they will elevate 2 players from the Academy, though they can be rookies already listed. The confusion has arisen because last year clubs only had to pick 1 player at the draft, but now it's 3. You are quite right about the first round pick rule. I believe West Coast must choose a player in the first round because they haven't done so since they won the flag.
Steve
Roar Rookie
Can anyone explain how many players clubs have to take in the draft? I thought it was three but Gold Coast only have one pick left. I assume it include rookies but I know there's other rules such as having to take at least two first-round picks in the previous four-year period so maybe there's rules around the number of picks as well. Just be good to understand the whole process.