AFL Saturday Study: Here's how the Magpies won ANOTHER thriller... and why none of it was just luck

Okay, it’s officially getting ridiculous now.

Win number ten in a row for Collingwood, by six points over Port Adelaide, was their ninth of the season by 12 points or less – and their sixth in a row in that margin range. We’ve never seen a streak like it.

It’s worth noting before we start unpacking it all that the Power themselves know how fickle Lady Luck can be: they went 6-0 in those close games in 2021, winning praise like the Magpies are currently for ‘knowing how to win’; this year, that’s fallen away to 2-7.

That’s basically the difference between another finals finish, and maybe even top-four, and missing the eight entirely.

No doubt the Pies’ run in close games will end at some point; but while there’s no evidence that winning a thriller makes you more likely to win the next one, good luck telling the players that.

As Jack Ginnivan himself said after the game: “It’s no luck now!”

With every passing victory, the Magpies grow more and more confident about their ability to win the tight games. The impact of that isn’t quantifiable, but it’s not nothing… right?

More often than not, mistakes happen in late games because a tired player either makes a very basic mistake, or just plain panics. Think Essendon’s Brayden Ham last week, getting himself stuck in no man’s land between Darcy Moore streaming out of defence and Trent Bianco on the wing; think Jake Aarts marking inside 50 and playing on; think Charlie Dixon mouthing off at the umpire and giving up a game-sealing 50m penalty today.

It’s impossible to imagine a Magpies player getting any of those things wrong at the moment; more often than not in a tight game, especially if you hold a lead, smart, sensible footy gets the job done. And the Pies have that in spades.

Case in point was a passage of play with a little over three minutes on the clock, with the Magpies up by 11. What’s noticeable as Miles Bergman streams forward and expects to kick it long is that every Pie in front of the ball is goal side of their opponent: Nathan Murphy is behind Robbie Gray, Nick Daicos runs hard to get to the same spot on Jed McEntee; ditto Trent Bianco on Kane Farrell; ditto Darcy Moore on Charlie Dixon.

It’s a set-up that only needs one player to mess up to bring it all crashing down; one player sucked to the football, or worried about marking another man, and suddenly the Power are out.

But with all four Magpies ahead of the ball playing back shoulder, and holding their position, Bergman can’t start a Joe the Goose chain and create an extra number over the top. Even if Bergman keeps his cool and hits up Sam Powell-Pepper or Charlie Dixon on the flank, that will take enough time that the trio of Pies – Jack Crisp, Will Hoskin-Elliott and John Noble – currently outside 50 will have time to flood back and fill the gaps.

Bergman doesn’t, though: he desperately bombs it long, the ball sails over the heads of Powell-Pepper, Dixon and Gray; Murphy reads it well and takes an uncontested mark near the goal line. The system is set up for exactly this: capitalising on the limited time remaining and the built-in desire in most players to whack the ball on the boot and hope in times like this.

It couldn’t have been more distinct to the Magpies’ own attack against the Bombers in the final minute last week, when Jamie Elliott got fractionally behind his opponent and far enough away from the loose man to take the fateful mark. The ball was moved quickly enough that the Dons weren’t filling the spaces well enough to ask the same question of the Pies that the men in black and white did for Port Adelaide.

A lot of what makes this work is that a number of the Pies’ midfielders, Crisp and Scott Pendlebury chief among them, have been regular defenders either this year or for much of their careers. They instinctually know the place they need to occupy in the backline structure; look at Crisp playing quarterback earlier in the play, hovering in the centre square waiting to cut off any kick. It’s a real asset to have.

Mostly, though, it works because the Pies have been drilled to do it, and have faith that their teammates will hold the line; faith that only grows with every passing week that it works perfectly.

Structure and discipline like this doesn’t mean you can’t get unlucky – if Murphy is a fraction later getting back, he could get a nightmare bounce over his head, seeing it land in the hands of Gray, and suddenly Port are five points down. But even increasing your chances of success by five, ten, fifteen per cent is a seismic boost when the lines are as fine as this.

Jack Ginnivan and Jamie Elliott of the Magpies celebrate. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Full credit to Craig McRae for implementing it as well: it’s undoubtedly basic, but it’s the opposite of the ‘organised chaos’ that the Magpies stake the rest of their game around. They’re unpredictable with the footy, but without it, they’re super reliable.

Case in point for that is what Murphy and the Pies do after taking that mark. Especially late in a tight match, you’ll often see a marker take his full time after a grab, then bomb long down the line and be content with taking 25 seconds off the clock. But as soon as Murphy marks, he’s looking to offload.

Instantly, his eyes go wide – no long kick up the line for these Pies. And in an instant, those Pies that were streaming inside 50 to fill a defensive web suddenly spread to the far side, and options open up.

Crisp has switched his run up the guts into the back pocket, while Hoskin-Elliott trusts Murphy to take the mark enough that the instant Bergman kicks long, he abandons his defensive running and moves into an attacking position on the wing. Crisp marks, offloads to the hard-running Nick Daicos, who has burned off the flagging McEntee; he gives to Noble running shotgun.

With the ball safely secured, the Magpies don’t keep going full throttle: aware that the immediate danger has passed and that the Power have a numerical advantage ahead of the ball, Noble takes a couple of bounces, steadies, and runs further to some more space on the wing. By the time he hits up Hoskin-Elliott, the Pies are on their own side of the wing.

It’s taken 25 seconds off the clock – about the same as you’d expect a long kick down the line and a throw-in – but instead of a neutral contest on Port’s attacking 50, the Pies have got the ball safely 100 metres away from the goals, and they still have the ball.

Two more quick chips from Patrick Lipinski and Daicos again, who never stopped running in that entire sequence. Only then does Daicos motion that he’ll be kicking long, to the teeth of the Magpies’ own goal.

A rushed behind ensues; crisis averted. Now, barring a minor miracle, the Magpies can’t lose the game.

“You wonder why Collingwood are winning close games – we’re just seeing it at the moment,” Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy’s coverage.

“Defensively, so sure behind the ball; and then going back the other way, just smart with the footy.”

Nothing about it was risky; nothing about it required any luck whatsoever. The Power panicked; the Pies were cool as cucumbers.

Really, the luckiest part of the final minutes went Port’s way; a hopeful, wobbly kick from Travis Boak into a dangerous spot, 40 metres out and directly in front, caught out the Magpie set-up. With everyone goal side of their opponents again, it meant Jase Burgoyne had free space in front of him, marking ahead of Jack Ginnivan.

For the first time, Lady Luck had turned against the Pies. Would it last for one more Power goal with a minute left?

It certainly seemed so when Ollie Wines won the centre clearances after Jordan De Goey had the ball knocked clear. Notice Pendlebury, though: defensive side of Wines at every point, he’s never going to impact the kick, but he’s a deterrent to Wines tucking the ball under his arm and running further.

The reigning Brownlow Medallist does what Bergman did, what nearly every footballer does in the last minute of a tight game when you’re behind; he throws it on the boot and gets it in there. It’s exactly what the Pies dream of.

Bad luck number two strikes: Brayden Maynard can’t mark going back with the flight. It’s a hugely courageous effort, but he’d normally swallow it; what will happen next?

Well, for starters, run back in droves. Josh Daicos and Steele Sidebottom have started on the defensive point of the wing, the farthest back they can be without violating the 6-6-6 rule; when Maynard drops the mark, the former is on the scene.

He doesn’t go charging into the contest like a bull at a gate: that would leave a Power player free on the outside. He backs Isaac Quaynor to win the ball at ground level, who shovels out a handpass to Maynard, back on his feet. He gives to Moore, and one handpass later, Daicos, having held his line like a true wingman, has the ball.

But then comes the moment the Pies’ luck re-established itself; Wines drops a simple mark on the wing from the Daicos kick, spurning the chance to get it back in again. The Magpies had enough numbers behind the ball that finding a mark, or a crumb, for the drawing goal wouldn’t have been easy: but it would have given them a big chance with 38 seconds on the clock.

Instead, when the foray forward comes, Ryan Burton has to kick from 20 metres further back than Wines, and under more pressure. His bomb long, though, isn’t bad: Moore has floated back off Dixon to be set up for the next kick, so it’s a four on three in the Power’s advantage.

But Charlie Dixon, having a dirty, dirty day, makes the most costly blunder of the match: he shoves Maynard in the back, gives away the free, and then gives the umpire a gobful for good measure. 50m penalty, and game over.

It was a microcosm of every reason why the Magpies have become the AFL’s clutch kings. Their set-up is perfect to defend late leads. Their midfielders are defensive-minded enough to know where to go and when to help out the system. When they have the ball, they don’t go into their shells, but neither do they throw it away with a kamikaze play.

In contrast, the Power acted like normal teams do in that situation: they hacked the ball long, gave away frees, and basically played directly into the Magpies’ hands. When you’re desperate, you tend to do silly things, and with their season on the line, Port couldn’t keep their heads enough to take down an opponent that has mastered this art.

It’s important to note that in all of their close games barring the Essendon win, and perhaps the Hawthorn victory if you want to be harsh, the Pies have held a late lead, with their opponents from Carlton to North Melbourne to the Power today needing to produce something like the ‘Elliott play’ to take the points. None have been capable, and the Pies haven’t handed it over one single time.

The Pies are an enigma this year: their wins have been scratchy enough that they seem the most vulnerable of any of the current top eight.

But if your only takeaway from this game is the last five minutes, then it’s worth considering that the Magpies gave up a six-goal run to the Power in the opening quarter, getting sliced up on transition again and again and making costly turnovers in bad spaces… and only conceded six others for the rest of the match. And one of them was via a dubious free kick before the opening bounce.

The Pies’ response was to up their pressure around the ball, tackle ferociously with it in dispute, and allow their defence the time to get back and set up. Their key is that basically everything highlighted above in the final three minutes, the secret sauce behind their clutch wins, is what they do for the rest of the match anyway.

Lucky teams don’t get themselves in positions like that. Sure, properly great teams might not either with this frequency, but it’s still got them on the verge of something really special.

No doubt Richmond or the Western Bulldogs or St Kilda will be keen for the Magpies to finish fifth. Yet if that final goes down to the wire, Craig McRae’s men are the last team anyone will want to face.

Perhaps it’s time that we stop talking about the Pies being on a run of good luck: maybe instead, we should consider that it would be bad luck to lose the games they’re winning at the moment.