Coach's corner: Three areas where Papali'i is 'clear upgrade' on Cane, and clearing up the Campbell confusion

Thanks once again for the big stimulus provided by forum thoughts and observations over the past week.

There were some grumblings from our cousins across the Tasman about the relative lack of articles on New Zealand rugby. So, let’s begin with what looms as a lively debate around the number 7 spot in the All Blacks, come the World Cup in 11 month’s time.

Jacko commented, “It’s starting to look like Dalton Papali’i is becoming comfortable in the role now and starting to look like the Super Rugby player we watch all year. Great to see.” Rongowhakaata chimed in: “Hopefully this performance is a marker for the future. We didn’t miss a beat with Sam Cane out. Loved the much more efficient clean-outs.”

KiwiHaydn pondered the essential question facing Ian Foster as the countdown to France 2023 begins: “Are Sam Cane’s days done? Papali’i is playing well and the head knocks just keep mounting for Sam.”

There remains a huge emotional investment in Cane as the anointed replacement to the great Sir Richie McCaw, both in the blue riband open-side flanker position and as the skipper of the side.

The problem is that he has been slowed a succession of serious injuries, not least to his neck towards the end of 2018. Medical opinion at the time was that Cane was only millimetres away from never playing a game of rugby again.

At his best, Cane is a truly dominant loose forward, especially in the tackle. But the raw stats suggest that he is no longer that player, despite showing some signs of improvement throughout The Rugby Championship when Shannon Frizell came into the starting back-row.

Dalton Papali’i. (Photo by Ryan Hiscott/Getty Images)

Cane came second to Josh van der Flier in every aspect in the July series against Ireland, and now he is coming under challenge from a bigger and more physical young pretender, in the shape of the Blues’ Papali’i. The Auckland man is three inches taller and at least five kilos heavier than Cane, and now he will have a run of tour games in which to prove his worth.

The stats from The Rugby Championship implied a shift in the balance of power, even though Papali’i played only 142 minutes to Cane’s 300. They also helped dispel some myths about the Aucklander’s work rate.

• Where Cane carried for an average of just over four metres per attempt, Papali’i averaged seven metres per carry.
• Cane’s 86% tackle completion rate compared to 100% by Papali’i. The Blues’ open-side made a tackle every five minutes, compared to Cane’s interval of over six and a half minutes.
• Ruck attendance intervals also panned out in favour of the youngster – one every 2.2 minutes versus one every 2.7 for Slammin’ Sam.

Another injury to the New Zealand captain has allowed Papali’i to state his case in no uncertain terms, starting with the match against Wales in Cardiff.

Papali’i had five carries 34 metres with four breaks or busts (2^nd for metres gained by a forward, behind Ardie Savea), he completed 14 of 15 tackles (2^nd behind Sam Whitelock), and he enjoyed a massive 77 ruck attendances (1^st on the team), balanced 50/50 between attack and defence. He even threw in a breakdown pilfer and two lineout takes for good measure.

There are three areas where Papali’i is a clear upgrade. At 6’4 he can win some lineout ball at the front; he can double down on the pilfering threat at the breakdown in tandem with Ardie Savea; and he is a more potent and powerful presence in wide attack than the current skipper:

Those are two forwards he is brushing off in the tackle, second row Adam Beard and Welsh captain Justin Tipuric in the blue hat. New Zealand scored their first try of the game later in the same sequence.

On attack, it was noticeable how often Papali’i drove across the advantage line at clean-outs, forcing himself to the far side of the ruck.

As Lux Interior commented: “Ball-carrier closely supported, accurate cleanouts and the resulting quick ball did the trick, after 20 minutes he was pretty comfortable with them.”

This is not just collapsing the ruck straight down, it is actively moving the pile of bodies away from the ball on to the opposition side, changing the offside line.

The combination of Papali’i and Savea together in the back row gives the All Blacks a one-two punch on the deck they have lacked heretofore – Sam Cane did not have a pilfer at the breakdown in The Rugby Championship:

Papali’i probably deserved a penalty reward at the first tackle, then the pressure is reinforced by Savea at the very next ruck. He was still going strong as the clock turned red, winning a turnover which led to New Zealand’s final try of the match. If he can maintain that form on tour, he will be a very hard man to uproot at the World Cup, even for a legend of the New Zealand game.

Judging Will Skelton

Lots of questions also revolved around Will Skelton, strangely-but-aptly mentioned in the same breath as the new full-back from the Queensland Reds, Jock Campbell.

Even a historical naysayer, Savant, was impressed by the big man’s contribution: “Best I’ve seen Skelton play. I might have to concede that he might be of value.” Cam Fay added, “Plenty of positives. Skelton was notable. Campbell had a good game outside of the don’t argue.” Rugby-nutter opined, “Skelton showed why he needs to be in the mix for World Cup. Whilst Jock finally may give us specialist 15 player as alternative option to Tom Banks.”

The conjunction of a massive forward and a nimble back was the classic combination of bludgeon and rapier which created Australia’s second try of the game in Paris.

As Ozinsa noted, “Skelton had a big impact off the bench. He smashed a couple of mauls and carries powerfully as well as popping a lovely ball for Nella on the charge [in the build-up to the score].”

As I observed earlier in the week, when Skelton entered the fray with just under half an hour to go, French mauls suddenly began to go backwards, while Australian drives mysteriously started to make progress:

The tip of the spear is provided by the triangle of Jed Holloway (making the catch from lineout), Nick Frost sealing off to his left, and big Will supplying the engine to power the bodies forward behind them. Those three work well together as a sub-unit in the forwards.

With play shifting upfield towards the French goal-line, Skelton morphed into his ball-carrying, ruck-smashing role:

First there is sleight-of-hand in the subtle offload to Taniela Tupou, who also looked to be in the mood right from the first scrum of the game, where he fired the redoubtable Cyrille Baille right through the roof of the set-piece.

Then Skelton doubles down with a hard cleanout on his mate at La Rochelle, Greg Alldritt, who was France’s biggest on-ball threat on the day. It was not the only time those two locked horns at ruck time, and the big man came out well ahead in the contest. Power opens the way for speed, with Jock Campbell finishing the move on a classic outside arc to the right-hand edge of the field.

The ex-Waratah was very active on the carry in his cameo, taking the ball at first receiver on as many occasions (six) as the Wallabies nominal outside-half Bernard Foley did in the whole match:

Skelton takes the ball at first receiver on three out of four phases, carrying twice over the ad-line and passing behind once. Join up the power dots with Skelton and Bobby Valetini, and you have an easy, risk-free method of making progress up the field, and a simple Australian zig-zag draws the penalty at the end of the sequence.

Most of the confusion about Campbell’s place in the team derived from the 76^th minute try by Damian Penaud which proved decisive.

Scott D said, “The final try [was] caused by a really poor tackle effort by [Tom] Wright, and a failure by the tackle defence to get there – so for my money six people should be having a look at themselves. That doesn’t infer that overall Wright and Campbell didn’t have good games. I thought Wright in particular was very good, and it’s great having an actual full-back in the team.”

Ozinsa responded, “Wright did his job – either tackle him if he goes straight or make him step and get an arm on him. The inside guy needs to make that tackle. He’s considered one of the world’s best finishers for a reason though.”

Ozinsa is much closer to the truth. Here is that spectacular final score again:

Now let’s take a look at it from the more revealing shot from behind the posts:

This is a defensive situation where Australia should be in the box-seat. When Penaud receives the ball, he is, in American Football parlance, already ‘bracketed’ by two defenders. This means that between them, Wright and Campbell can take away the two potential directions in which Penaud can move. Wright can block the side-line route, and it is up to Campbell to make a tackle if Penaud steps inside:

In the event, Wright does his part but the Queenslander is fended off too easily when the French right wing makes his choice to step inside. That is Campbell’s man, make no mistake about it.

Hhhmmmm made a point about the contrast with the effectiveness of Campbell’s play up until then, “Campbell had a really good game. He found grass with kicks, the first try was set up with his support play, he challenged the defensive line and made it uncomfortable for French. Commentators didn’t even mention Campbell’s involvement twice in the try.”

All of which may be correct, judged purely in its own terms. But the fact remains that the balance in the back three is wrong with those three footballers in it. Between them, Wright, Campbell and Andrew Kellaway missed on six of 20 tackle attempts they essayed.

Would Penaud have scored his try with Reece Hodge at fullback? I doubt it. Hodge’s defensive determination and communication skills would have converted that two-on-one into a win for the Wallabies. Would Hodge have been able to convert the second Australian try as well as Campbell? Maybe, maybe not.

But Australia probably cannot afford more than one of Kellaway, Wright and Campbell in their back three for the World Cup. Defence matters.

Thanks once again for all who made observations and comments across the week!