The emperor’s new clothes: Does Eddie have a plan?

Eddie Jones returned home in January, ‘triumphantly’ sacked by the RFU with his recently appointed defence coach, Brett Hodgson in tow, and the ear of RA Chairman Hamish McLennan.

Eddie would go on to take Dave Rennie’s job as the Wallabies coach after a tenure defined by injuries and a 38% win record. Eddie, in his drawn-out break-up with former suitor, English Rugby, eventually succumbed to his own 38% win record in 2022.

Yet, this recent history mattered little as Hamish McLennan, Rugby Australia Chairman, preached that there was “near-universal approval for Eddie’s coming back”.

Eddie was positioned as the messiah. Eddie would tell you he wasn’t the messiah, but that was yet further affirmation that Eddie knows more than everyone else, which means we should entrust him to be the messiah. To be clear, Australian Rugby wants a messiah.

And so, Eddie in his return spoke only of greener pastures, golden generations, and the mythical Australian way of play. In his introductory press conference Eddie opined, “there’s plenty of talented players [in Australian Rugby] but talent doesn’t win World Cups.”

The subtext was duly noted: talent doesn’t win World Cups, Eddie wins World Cups. Never mind the reality that Eddie doesn’t win World Cups, or at least hasn’t — having coached two runner-up teams in both Australia and England.

Throughout this pantomime, Eddie told anyone who would listen that Australia would win the World Cup. We were entering the new golden generation, finally with an Australian at the helm who felt the agony of Australian failure in ways Dave Rennie, a man fighting for his reputation and career, could not. In these World Cup winning clothes, the Wallabies would achieve this all on the back of the sole change of Eddie Jones as coach (who is not the messiah).

Now, after three bruising losses, a more apt allegory seems to being playing out.

The Wallabies are 0/3 under Eddie Jones and Brett Hodgson. The ultimately sackable 32.3 points a game they conceded in last years’ Rugby Championship under Rennie is now 38.3 for the Australian test team.

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

The Wallabies have scored only 16.6 points a game, 7 less than they did in 2022’s tournament.

Australia has tried to play a ‘possession-less’ game under Jones, with players feeling it as a consequence. Australia has made 587 tackles the 2023 Rugby Championship, 24 fewer than they did in the 2022 Rugby Championship. They have played three fewer matches.

Against the All Blacks this weekend, the absence of a consistent counter-ruck was painfully apparent. Australia tackled and tackled and tackled, with no pressure placed on the New Zealand ball as Aaron Smith could change his speed of play as he pleased.

This was most evident in Will Jordan’s try just before half-time, the turning point of a game where a five-point deficit felt fair but a 12 point one, insurmountable. Off a goal-line dropout, the All Blacks played for 21 phases before they scored; an example of great Wallaby defence that eventually succumbed through attrition.

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In Bledisloe One, New Zealand did not look like they believed possession rugby was dead.

The Wallabies tackle counts are looking more like NRL figures every week as league-trained defence coach Hodgson may hope. A substantive 139 tackles against South Africa became a wearying 200 against Argentina, before a truly brutal 248 against New Zealand.

Throughout all of 2022 the Wallabies averaged 111.92 tackles per game, making Bledisloe One’s defensive effort a potentially unsustainable playstyle. If not for a few moments of brilliance by Will Skelton, Samu Kerevi, and Rob Valetini, who all created a breakdown steal within 30 metres of their line, Australia would likely have never contested at the breakdown and would have also defended valiantly until the New Zealand attacks turned into New Zealand points.

This total disinterest for the breakdown may have been an attempt to eliminate a place of ill-discipline, with Australia only conceding 9 penalties for the game, the first single-digit penalty count since Bledisloe One, 2021.

Yet, the low penalty count failed to pressure the All Blacks as intended. Instead, Smith and Richie Mo’unga drove relentlessly forward leading the All Blacks’ attack.

Tackling is hard, and feeling like all you are doing is tackling is demoralising. The Wallabies outsized effort in defence was completed at odds with the lack of support in attack.

Mark Nawaqanitawase, Andrew Kellaway and Angus Bell all made line breaks into the All Blacks 22 which ended with them failing to find support to capitalise on these breaks.

Australian morale was also not helped by an ineffective high-ball plan with Carter Gordon and Jordan Petaia particularly struggling to create pressure through territorial gains.

Bledisloe One was a game that showed promise throughout but felt constantly just out of reach for the Wallabies after a disheartening opening try to the visitors.

Jones’s assessment that there are plenty of talented players in Australian Rugby is true. Skelton, Kerevi, and Koroibete are all close to the best in the world at their positions. And encouragingly, there are up-and-comers like Valentini, Frost, Gordon, and Nawaqanitawase who at their best can match the All Blacks’ lineup.

Yet, Bledisloe One felt like the first time that people could mention the emperor’s new clothes. In this Rugby Championship, Eddie’s magic has not worked.

For the sake of Australian Rugby, let’s hope there is more to his World Cup plan than just speaking it into existence.