Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Simon Goodwin has perfected it.
For the last 3 years Melbourne have done essentially the same thing, to diminishing returns. They dominate the intercept and turnover game through a solid structure behind the ball, are overwhelming defensively and through the midfield, and they bomb the ball deep to a forward line that could generously be described as a work in progress.
It could more reasonably be described as alternating between mediocre and catastrophic, usually depending on the level of the opposition.
Since 2021, Melbourne have never been lower than third in the competition for inside 50s.
This season, they were first by basically 2 per game.
They were fourth in shots per game by essentially 3 per game.
They were 7th for goals kicked on the season. 8th in scoring.
This was a bad side forward of centre.
Now, granted, this is at least partly a list issue.
Lachie Hunter and Jacob van Rooyen celebrate a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The fact that they have only won one premiership despite three top 4 finishes in a row is catastrophic. It borders on malpractice.
The fact that the defensive structure that they have hung their hat on for the last three years broke down so dramatically when the game against Carlton was at its tightest is, in my view, the biggest indictment on the Demons, and shines a light on their biggest problem.
Now we get to Simon Goodwin who, after an offseason of turmoil and a season where the ending seemed almost preordained in hindsight, was adorned midseason with yet another early contract extension that will keep him at the club until 2026.
Why?
You just extended him for 2 years in May of 2022.
Why do it again in August of 2023?
What’s he done to earn yet another early extension? Give straight bat press conferences and continued picking Tom McDonald in big games?
Watching Melbourne play the exact same game they played three years ago and get worse results each time must be so infuriating to Melbourne fans.
Every kick deep into some miscellaneous forward that nobody has heard of or who sucks now (Tom McDonald), usually off a brilliant bit of clearance or intercept work by a superstar, reminds me of every cut to an actor talking directly to the camera in any recent Adam McKay production.
In The Big Short it was fresh, funny and self-referential. In Vice it was getting stale but still played. By Winning Time, I started to think that watching Melbourne inside 50 entries might be less irritating.
They never find a lead. They never even seem to look. They just keep banging their head against the wall hoping the crack that they hear is the wall and not their head.
There is a lot of Bombers 2000 to this Dees’ outfit. Both were ultra-talented lists. When they won their premiership, the feeling was that it was the start a long reign with multiple premierships.
Jack Viney and Brayden Maynard fight. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
That was especially true given both came off the back of successive premiership winners. For Melbourne, obviously they came off the back of Richmond’s three premiership dynasty. For the Bombers, the previous 4 premierships were an Adelaide sandwich with Carey’s Kangaroos providing the bread.
This comparison is made even more true by the list demographics of those premiership sides. The Baby Bombers were 6th in experience and 3rd in age in the competition in 2000 but the guns were either young or at the start of their prime. James Hird was 27, Dean Solomon was 20, Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas were 22, Joe Misiti 25 and Dustin Fletcher 24.
The Dees in 2021 were not terribly dissimilar. They were 9th in experience and 6th in age but again, their guns appeared to be either young or still comfortably in their primes. Steven May was 29 but has aged well, Christian Salem, Christian Petracca, Jake Lever and Angus Brayshaw were all 25, Clayton Oliver 23, Bayley Fritsch 24 and Kysaiah Pickett 19.
They appeared primed. It seemed easy to win multiple premierships. Wrong.
But for the Dees’ it goes beyond that.
The finals series in its current form has been in place since 2000. No team in the history of the current final 8 system has gone out in straight sets two years in a row.
They’re a James Harden football team. Good in the regular season, undeniably talented, but predictable, stubborn and easy to play come finals time.
Most of that blame has to lay at the feet of the coach who you just extended.
Damien Hardwick couldn’t find a thousand and first way to fry a sausage.
Simon Goodwin hasn’t found a second.
junk
Roar Rookie
Also. Selection panel idiocy doesn't help. Whilst a change of midfield coach might aid the cause, it is enough to make me consider the Giants as an alternative team.
BillyA
Roar Rookie
"Easy to play come finals time"? Mate they lost by a combined 9 points across two finals and had about 1000 more inside 50s. Don't think that is 'easy to play against'. Hearing some of the Carlton players talk post match (Sam Walsh) saying it was the hardest game they have been involved in is testament to this. I take some of your points however throw away lines like that just aren't accurate. The Dees only have themselves to blame. They kick straight they win both of those games. Has nothing to do with being easy to play against. At all. This time of the year this articles get written, the big headlines craved. I get it. But the Demons are not done yet, with a quality list, amazing draft capital and lots of cap space, they will be around for a few years yet.
Tony Taylor
I'm a Melbourne supporter and agree with everything here. But my question is why the footy world is only recently catching on to Melbourne's one dimensional front half. Everything we do we've been doing since Goodwin was appointed, the bulk I50s, the Einstein analogies, the head against the wall, the defence at the expense of offense, etc. It all became strongly apparent in 2017, and bar some spurts in 2018 and 2021, we keep doing it. Easy goals are a massive pressure relief, but we get very few, we are always trying to manufacture goals out of traffic, that's the byproduct of playing a half-court press, and you need highly skilled forwards to pull it off, and we definitely don't have them. We need to open it up a little so that the odd easy goal can unsettle the opposition's defensive shape; at the moment they can sit on our bombs to 30 and hit us on the break. I don't know exactly what the problem is, but the result of the problem is forward half failure, and until we fix it, we are kidding ourselves; every competent defence, like most finals defences, will be able to hold us to a losing score. And yet, and yet, without a forward line we were able to win 16 games and should have won both finals. Something is wrong with our structure, but something is also right. (We also have a good draft hand.) I just hope we aren't fooling ourselves that we are close, but not close enough. You can fool yourself into thinking you only need minimal changes to win a flag, but in fact you are a long way off and need wholesale changes. Obviously I hope that's not the case.