(L-R) Jesse Haberfield, Charlie Dixon and Jack Stanlake pose for a photo during a press conference in which the 3 players signed on for the AFL Gold Coast 17 team. GSP images
The concessions to be given to the new Gold Coast club have given rise to this year’s draft being termed as “the last uncompromised draft.” But should clubs really be all that worried?
Paul Roos fronted the media this week expressing his fear over what may lie ahead in coming years. “We can’t go down for two or three years (outside the top eight),” the Sydney coach said.
“The AFL would have to be worried about it.”
He also claimed that spending that sort of time without making an appearance in September would be “absolutely catastrophic” for both the club and the code.
The remarks were a bit over the top, but you can at least understand where he’s coming from. This year, the Swans may not make the finals for the first time since 2002. Roos conceded he may start turning to youth after the Adelaide game in two weeks.
As soon as this season finishes, some of the club’s older players may consider their future. The likes of Brett Kirk, Barry Hall, Michael O’Loughlin, Leo Barry and Jared Crouch are all over the age of 30, and there’s a host of others joining that list next year.
On top of that, they face the “compromised” drafts.
Sydney is looking like one of the few clubs that face falling outside the eight around the same time as the Gold Coast – and potentially Western Sydney after that – enter the league and raid the draft.
Gold Coast will get the first three selections and five of the next eleven at the 2010 draft. Crucially, they can sign up to twelve prospects turning 17 this year, a year before they are eligible for the draft.
In theory, this means a club could finish, say, 13th next year, yet get a pick worse than the one they would get finishing 8th in an uncompromised draft. And that’s on top of the fact there will almost certainly be a diluted talent pool in that draft, because of the 17 year-olds taken in 2009.
But the effect on clubs like Sydney may not be as drastic as one might assume. It just depends on how the club goes about it.
Compromised drafts work both ways, and it means that the Swans may, in fact, recover faster than they would under a normal system.
Chances are the Gold Coast will look to trade some of their draft picks, to avoid the risk of having a bottom-heavy list comprised of more kids born in 1992 than you’ll see at a deb after party.
They’ll also need experienced players to bolster their list, and they won’t be counting on uncontracted players alone to fill that role.
The opportunity to trade for those early draft picks – or perhaps even those uncontracted players – exists for clubs who have talent the Gold Coast have their eyes on.
One commodity that the Coasters won’t find in the draft is a ready-made ruckman. You can’t rely on a draft pick – no matter how high – being your number one ruck straight up in round one.
The big men generally take the longest to develop and need guidance from more senior teammates.
So, for example, Sydney could off-load Darren Jolly to the new club to be that guidance. He’ll be 29 by then, so he may be just the sort of player the Gold Coast are after.
He may not be, of course. At this stage, it’s all speculation.
The point is, clubs who are wise will not look towards the next two to three years negatively. They will instead see an opportunity to cut loose a few players and accumulate more draft picks than they otherwise would.
If a club like Sydney were to snare one of those early picks, they may very well end up with two first-round picks.
Or they could, in theory, swap their first-round pick with one of the Gold Coast’s, as well as some “spare parts” in the process, just to move up in the draft. Those familiar with the NBA draft will know how this can happen.
On top of that, the trade period at the end of next year is tipped to be one of the most active we’ve seen.
So the off-season at the end of next year is looking likely to present more opportunities to shake up a playing list than ever before.
It’s just up to the clubs to make the most of these opportunities.
Redb
Roar Guru
MC, Heard some negative feedback on David Hale on SEN last night. Are you a fan or would you be happy to see him on Jetstar flight 435 to Coolongatta? Redb
beaver fever
Roar Pro
kurt tippett... He is their man.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Would be a big turnaround by Riewoldt if that's what he decided to do (given what he as said publicly over and over and over). Mind you, it would be a massive coup for GC and of immense symbolism if they could pull it off.
Michael C
Guest
I do just wonder, just because, for example, North have signed up David Hale - - doesn't mean that he or they wouldn't be considering him going to the GC17 squad. Simply, that being contracted, it would be via the trade table so that North get something of value for him, rather than as an uncontracted player. And should StKilda win the flag this year, would Nick Riewoldt be any more likely to head north of the Tweed at the end of next year? Would StKilda envisage that at end of 2010 season, given Riewoldt is 26 1/2 now, he'd be 28 by then. Kosi around the same age, would they want to got forward with both into their 30s, or, potential trade Riewoldt as a 28 yo for perhaps 2 top 20 picks that they would get near otherwise?? Part of the answer to the hypothetical lies in what talent is left after all the best 17 year olds have been removed by GC17 (and then what next with WS18??)
Pippinu
Roar Guru
The draft process is always full of interest - nothing will change on that front, and indeed, there could be quite a few surprises. Redb makes a good point about the importance of your recruitment staff. Good article Michael.
Kick2Kick
Guest
It will make the clubs be more smarter than just sit at the bottom of the ladder and pick up young kids. What was surprising and smart was that in the 2008 draft the Hawks picked up 17 year olds instead of 18 year olds, good picks for the future... Michael raises some good points that they will have to get rid of some players for a long term benefit and it could be a good idea to get rid of some dead wood. ie: White from Sydney, Seaby from Eagles etc
Redb
Roar Guru
Michael D, The role of the talent and recruiting manager just became a $50,000 a year better paid job. The Gold Coast team are currently 4th in the TAC Cup so the talent coming out of Queensland and PNG is producing some exciting times for footy. Not sure how the WS draft picks will work when GC seem to have snapped up most of the better prospects. As an aside, Dave Matthews (AFL Development Mgr), Nathan Buckley and Connell the high performance Manager of the proposed Western Sydney team are in Notre Dame for a week to gather and share information on draft picks, development,etc. Redb
Michael C
Guest
I reckon the biggest question marks for GC17 are A. the spine B. the core leaders, They need to target mature bodied key position players, including a ruckman. For what GC17 can't get suitably via trading and uncontracted - they then need to look more broadly, For players a bit here and there at other clubs, the next 5 years could provide so much greater opportunity than ever before. Outside of the AFL lists, a Jason Cloke if he were still in the system now might be big chance - could he still be? - (well, he's still going around in the VFL). Could a Marty Pask with an extra year or 2 of maturity be a chance to re-enter the system. I just wonder how many of the big bodied players delisted in the 2007-08 era will have managers telling them to keep going as hard as possible outside of the AFL, whether in the SANFL or whereever - just in case. I reckon too many very good players miss out because they hadn't physically matured sufficiently at age 20!!!
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
MC, yep, I think they'll need more than a week next year. Geelong is an interesting case, as its unlikely they won't be in premiership contention next year but will be facing the question of how to manage the transition from one generation to another. The good news is they have no shortage of in-demand talent. I can't see the big four -- Ablett, Bartell, Corey, Selwood -- remaining beyond the end of next year. Corey is the logical choice to off-load, as he is the oldest, but I'd be very surprised if GC weren't already talking to some of the others.
Michael C
Guest
Certainly - the GC17 and subsequent WS18 will be loaded up with early draft picks - - and access to uncontracted players. Reality is all the good players will be signed up and locked away. What's that leave? Only the draft picks. And 2 teams need to have ready made over night spread of age/body type and ready made leadership groups outside of the sub 21 years age group. So - - trading will be in vogue like never before. Early draft picks will be available for clubs that otherwise might not have had access. This MAY give a club like Geelong a chance to off load perhaps a Joel Corey to deliver GC17 a ready made on field leader and allow Geelong a half decent draft pick (perhaps not a first round). Anyway, just an example. So, the Swans - perhaps if a Mike Pyke comes along and Jolly holds his own, might be willing to trade away Jesse White for a top 10 pick? However it goes - it'll be the ultimate test of the trade process - and will a single week be enough?