AFL crowds will be down 348K this season

Right then - so, the actual drop was from 2008, -147K from 2007, - 111K. And over all, the 3rd best season ever, and only 3rd time greater than 6.3million during H&A season. With a bumber week 1 of finals on the books - - importantly, no Port Adelaide or NOrth Melbourne in the finals!!!

Just for comparison, NRL crowd avg after rnd 17 is 15840, compared to 15980 last year & 15628 the previous year. Pretty well stable.

At this stage - using simply the last 2 years worth of trends for rnd 16-22, the present figures are heading for between a 183K to 351K drop. So, 351K or the 348K predicted by this article is looking the worst case scenario. That's from 2008 which was a record. re 2007 which was the previous record - b/w 147K and 315K. Basically down from around 6.5 million to around 6.25 million. In the face of GFC and Victoria being the early hot bed of swine flu and related quarantining measures - - it's probably a pretty good result. Especially given that prior to 2007 and 2008, the previous best figures were around 6.2mill to 6.28 mill. In 2006 and 2005 respectively. No one has ever suggested endless growth. Afterall, we saw the break out peak of 6.12million in 1998, only for crowds to fall 350K the next year and drop as low as 5.64mill in 2002 before trending upwards again. Note : these figures are limited to regular season H&A matches. In

Wonder what the prognosis is now, maybe crowds have picked up a bit?

The Link, From a business perspective Western sydney is better than NT or Tassie, TV rights is where the big money is NT is sucha small market (circa 200k) it is not worth chasing, Tassie is already 100% AFL (At least close enough) so there wil be no significant gain in revenue. But in WS if 10 % of the population support AFL based on 1.8 million people living out that way there is another 200k viewers for TV. This is a simplified view of the matter but as far as room for growth WS is the number 1 region that the AFL can go into.

Link - Interesting you mentioned NT. The NT has got together finally and has a team in the QAFL (or AFLQ if you'd rather). They had been looking at the SANFL, but opted for their northern neighbour. For the NT -this is probably ideal - as, having a permanent AFL team would be a bit like sticking on in Albury-Wodonga.....only probably less sustainable. Tassie - - still has the issue that most everyone already has a team, and Hawthorn has a large number of Tassie based members. For the time being - that's a good fit. Looking further ahead - - who knows - - will 18 be deemed the number of clubs to persist with such that should there be a Melb club fall over or merge into West Sydney then in comes Tassie (at the expense of the Hawks arrangement). - - - at any rate - I still wish North Melb had stuck with Canberra and stuck with the Murray Kangaroos VFL team and really forged a strong Albury-Wagga-Canberra connection.

The Link or more accurately, a strategic business decision. They aren't looking at the next 5 to 10 years time - they're looking at the next 50 to 100 years. Put yourselves in the shoes of an AFL Commissioner (as unpalatable as that may sound). What do we have? A sport popular to about 50 to 55% of all Australians, with zero interest beyond these shores (let's not quibble about the exact percentages, it doesn't matter). It has zero revenue coming in from internationals (unlike soccer and rugby who get considerable revenues via that route) What's the obvious thing to do to ensure the AFL exists as a viable entity in 100 years time? To get some of the other 45% interested. When looked at from that perspective, there is actually no choice for the AFL but to do what it's doing.

Pippinu - fair enough they're trying to build a base where there is little or none, but this is a pure business decision. WS is not crying out for an AFL side, just like the Swans, Bears (perhaps lesser extent) and Storm. Compare this to Tassie or NT in the AFL, or Central Coast in NRL.

The LInk - yeah, I realised that when I discovered that they start live at 7.30 and follow on at 9.30 - - it's a pretty good 'wicket' there for channel 9. The AFL should seriously look at a FTA and Fox Friday night double header situation - - obviously you can't really go one after another, but, it would improve the Fox proposition perhaps. The mature aspect of Fox in certain markets is based on the product offering into those markets - surely. A Fox package based in the main on NRL got a big jump - - whilst for the early part of the timeframe we had the C7 situation, and Optus. Since then - yep, the footy is on Fox only with the Rugby - and Fox is now strategically growing in the less mature markets via a tailor product offering. The grass roots aspect is interesting - - because - - there needs to be an opportunity. That includes, provision of and access to grounds, creation of clubs if required - and much of that has to grow out of the Auskick. The AFL approach has been growing from Auskick outwards and they obviously feel that the time is right (in the next 3-10 years) to have a WS team launched to help the overall strategy. It's ruddy hard to create an Aust Footy club overnight - - it's a pretty labour intensive sport!!! (i.e. number of officials alone required). What might the sum result be? 10,000 participants??? Dunno. But if they don't try now, then, they probably never get another chance. The actually blue print of the GC17 side is rather different to each of the Bears, Swans and Storm - - in that, they are first engaging with the community via a local Under 18s side, that the next year becomes an open age 2nd tier side - and finally 'graduates' to the big time - - - at which point, who knows just what proportional representation of locals will remain. But - it's an interesting exercise (expensive too). We're all watching to see how GC17 goes at developing the local (and PNG too) talent in their broader squad - how many they sign up and how many that may be drafted by other clubs.

Carlton and Essendon have played over 200 times over 100 years - Last Friday nights crowd of 83,400 was the 3rd highest for a home and away game between the two clubs of all time. There's life in the ol' dog yet. :-) Redb

The Link it could be argued that this WS initiative is being undertaken in a manner totally different to the examples of the Swans, Bears and the Storm. That doesn't guarantee it will work (there are no guarantees in life), but we should at least acknowledge that it's a totally different approach this time round.

Michael C - I don't understand your point on C above. Are you referring to AFL? Can't be RL because both Friday night games are on FTA. Fox gets the third best RL game for Monday nights, then usually games ranked 5-8 on Sat and Sun. Re point A - surely the argument of Pay TV not being mature anywhere else besides NSW is a tired one. Its been 15 years, if its not mature then when will it be? Re new teams, there is no grass roots community demand for an AFL team in WS, unlike the Gold Coast. It was the wrong approach for the Swans, Bears and later the Storm and its the wrong approach now.

alan, as an "AFL supporter" you sure give rugby league a good, hard, positive spin! AFL is the best game for TV with its more frequent breaks and kicks in and out of play suited to a quick ad break every now and then. Well then again, GridIron is the best game for ad breaks . . .

Alan - The top 100 shows on FOXTEL are dominated by Rugby League because League is a TV GAME. Is a bit simplistic - whilst agreed - NRL looks far, far better on tele than 'in person', the NRL dominates the FOxtel for a couple of reasons - A. NSW is the most penetrated (mature) and largest Subscription TV market in Australia. B. NSW and QLD account for just over half the Australian population and the Foxtel feeds don't need to be tweaked across the NSW/QLD border. C. Ch.9 has given Fox a live Friday night game whilst allowing Ch.9 a Friday night game. by comparison, the AFL Foxtel match package is very much geared at accessing the Adelaide and Perth markets. The best games and Friday night games remain on FTA. Many times, the national Fox signal is quite different across the states - and is often live against the gate into Adelaide/Perth for local games as well. The comparison of the Top 100 programs is not an accurate reflection of what you're attempting to use it for. And on the 'arrogance' aspect with the AFL - - I really, really reckon that's unfair. It WAS super arrogance back in the '80s when a failed Melb team (South MElb) was sent to Sydney and given no effective grass roots/code growing support. It was immense arrogance in the mid/late 80s sending a bunch of misfits and rejects to the Gold Coast and calling them Brisbane. (actually, it's given me a great idea for an article). Compare to now - the AFL has spent heaps of money with no hope of short term return in NSW and QLD on game development at the grass roots level. Participation is up, auskick and junior clubs are growing, the AFL has spent heaps on upgrading facilities (even if RL media likes to whinge should ever a council work as a project partner!!!). ANd the 2 new QLD and NSW clubs will be home grown from scratch in an environment where presently there are over 80 AFL players from QLD and NSW running around. And all the talk is about recognising how hard a job it is, that they can't afford not to, and it'll be a generational thing. Seems to me - if the AFL are arrogant now - then, how would you describe the regime back in the '80s before the Commission. (btw - arrogance would've seen North Melb up in the Gold Coast - - I was so glad that a relocation fell through and they will get their own team, and we go through the whole process of the GC17 which has included 2 PNG kids in the TAC Cup squad - which is a massive recognition of the PNG program.) anyway - - onto the article that I had an idea for.

Pip, Re rushed behinds, I 've got to say this is the best rule change the AFL mas made. Stopped the rot completely and forced defenders when in possession to have to play out of defence. So perhaps it's newsworthy on the grounds that it is one if the few rules changes that the footy public have embraced and in general the intepretation from the umpires has been pretty good. alan, Don't worry about the Sydney numbers it is cyclical thing, note the rise in Sdyney NRl clubs due to better performance and conversely declining performance from the Broncos. Broncos only got 27K to their last game, the Bris Lions pulled 33K. Storm is doing well on the field, what happens when they are out of the 8 in the NRL to their Melb numbers - it is all part of the cycle. Ch 9 is reluctant to show Storm games becuase they know they will be smashed in the ratings against the AFL Friday night game. Ch 9 can offer an alternative - family movie, cooking show :-) , and boost the numbers who dont want to watch sport. I think the Storm would get viewers checking the score results if the Storm was live as I'm sure this is what happens to the Swans in Sydney, but the average viewers still look ordinary as it is spread over game time. One swallow does not make a summer. If you think rugby league is resilent wait until Aussie Rules looks on the back foot. Unfortunately the Swans have served up ugly football for the past 5 years, if you win playing ugly football your forgiven, lose, you better look out. A second NSW team, that is truly NSW in origin is good for the code in time. Watch St Kilda, Carlton, Collingwood, Bris Lions, Essendon and Geelong games to see the best in AFL football, the Swans haven't delivered watchable Aussie Rules since the Lockett and Paul Kelly days. Redb

The Tv attendances for AFL in Sydney have always been pathetic. This is NOT a new thing. The plain simple fact is that AFL fans GO TO the games because AFL is a game to watch live. The top 100 shows on FOXTEL are dominated by Rugby League because League is a TV GAME. The swannies attendances are down at the ground too, which must be a worry for the Team. Having been to a AFL game live is Good. My prediction is this the western Sydney side will be a dismal failure for the AFL which has become so arrogant and plain Money Hungry they are going to get burnt. The Gold coast numbers dont stack up either. Look Whilst it is true Rugby League only dominates in two states those two states have 54% of the population , think about it ! I wish the AFL well, I am a AFL supporter but i dont think all is as secure and well healed as they make it out to be. Channel 10 deserves a medal for persevering on Saturday evenings with AFL it brings the average down a lot for the week. I cant understand why 9 in Melbourne dont support the Melbourne Storm better the Origin ratings are good and the first game played this year was telecast at a decent hour and got very very good ratings. Whilst being a AFL Supporter one thing i have noticed is the resilence of Rugby League and the fact that everyone says it is in trouble it keeps coming back.

Yeh - it's hilarious! I found the rushed behinds funny as well (in terms of being a highlight) - it's a good development, but hardly a big news item.

Pip, It just goes to show you can't beleive everything the AFL tells you. Umpires are getting better!!! - give me a break. :-) Redb

Seeing that Jimbo had gone to such trouble to provide us all with this valuable service, I just thought it would be useful to quote from the AFL's very own mid year review, just for the sake of completeness. Here are the highlights: * MEMBERSHIPS are booming, attendances have defied the economic crisis and umpires are getting better. * Club memberships are up one per cent from last year with half of the clubs registering rises, the most significant being reigning premier Hawthorn (12,000). * Rushed behinds have fallen from 6.0 per game last year to 3.6 per game. * the AFL was on track for its second highest ever attendance figures, slightly down on last year's record year.

Slippery J How so?? it was lifted straight from a reputable Aust newspaper that lifted it straight from an English papers website!!! How could anyone go wrong on that basis???? Reality is I chose to include anything and everything that sounded or reminded one of something from a James Bond movie, thus, losing a 'dinghy' as you put it in a poker game is quite reasonable - - similar to losing the Maserati (or the 'girl'!!), but, the sub, escape pod, guided missles and armor plating.............it all sounds too much like the Hank Scorpio (Globex corporation) from the Simpsons episode, I can just see Roman having a sinister island hide out where he's working on his doomsday machine, all we need next is to hear about his fleet of private space shuttles......Moonraker anyone?? If you're not with me on that plain with respect to viewing this information - - then I'm afraid you're probably taking it way, way too seriously.