All of a sudden Geelong look fragile. Their epic clash with St Kilda in Round Thirteen seems to have left them severely wounded and they were forced to make ten changes to their team for the game against Brisbane last weekend.
They subsequently lost by seven goals.
All year Geelong haven’t looked quite right. Sure, they’re still a Top Four team and will beat most teams on their day. But something is missing.
The 2008 Grand Final loss has wounded them mentally, especially Cam Mooney, whose goal kicking radar has been completely unplugged.
Tom Hawkins isn’t quite up to the hardness required, thus they have to rely on Steve Johnson to kick miraculous goals from often obtuse angles to win.
Geelong’s midfield remains all class: Ablett, Bartel and J Selwood are great players, no problems there. But the ‘book ends,’ through injury and mental fatigue, are looking fragile.
When was the last time Geelong belted out their club song with gusto after a win?
They sing the song as if it’s a funeral dirge or with the excitement of a US President whimpering his way through the Russian national anthem. Geelong fans I know are disappointed with their lack of passion.
Does this come from winning 55 out of 59 games over the past three seasons?
The loss to St Kilda may be more significant than many fans realise. The Saints came out of the game with few injuries, and whilst they looked a little wobbly against the Eagles in Perth, they did enough to win.
St Kilda have done to Geelong what Brisbane did to Essendon in 2001: “If it bleeds you can kill it.”
Perhaps only through the heroics of Garry Ablett, along with Jimmy Bartel and Joel Selwood, do they have a chance in 2009.
But I think Geelong are gone.
Redb
Roar Guru
Pip, The Cats are coming up against a resurgent Hawthorn out to prove their still contenders - we will see some unsociable football from the likes of Brown, Hodge, Franklin,etc - "If it bleeds you can kill it" will be ringing in their ears. The Cats are wounded - never been a better time. Hope it doesn't go too far. Redb
Pippinu
Roar Guru
The parallels are there. In Essendon's 1999-2001 run, they pretty much came from the middle of the ladder in 1997-98 to dominate the comp for three years - but then dropped just as quickly as they had risen. Go back to Geelong's premiership season, 2007, and five rounds in, no one was talking about Geelong winning a flag, let alone them dominating for years to come. These things seem to come and go very, very quickly, without too much warning. Reasons: 1. Lists are relatively even; 2. runs with injuries are ultra important (look at Sydney's premiership season, the very best run with injuries I've seen in my entire life) 3. there is something to be said about momentum, a team being in the zone, gelling, hitting the right notes, coach walking on water, call it what you like - but one thing is for sure, it rarely has a life of beyond 3 seasons (the Lions only just managed to push it out to four) - without the need to go back to the drawing board and rediscover it. We saw this in the Carlton team of 1995. In the Dons of 2000. The Roos came pretty close to keeping it going for around six seasons with an astute coach and the best player in the comp at the time - but even they had to experience ups and downs during those six seasons (that delivered 2 flags and one runners up)
Redb
Roar Guru
This from Lethal: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,25828446-19742,00.html "Leigh Matthews has drawn a comparison between the current Geelong side and Essendon at the end of 2001. " "The Cats have started to lose their air of invincibility, losing two of their past three matches and this week face a rejuvenated Hawks outfit without key forward Steve Johnson, James Kelly and skipper Tom Harley." Redb
Redb
Roar Guru
Thanks Big Al. Yeah how good was that Saints - Cats game. Come September I may feel a big mountain cat's claws down my back. :-) Michael D, Agree on the talls. Blake is next to useless around the ground, even a negative with his kicking. They need Ottens back but his match fitness must be questioned. Take your point though on returning players they could provide the spark that is needed. Ian T, I think what strikes me about St Kilda is that like certain teams who ultimately succeed they seem to get a very good run with few injuries to key players throughout the season. I'm thinking Geelong in 2007 and Essendon in 2000. If injuries do occur to key players we would have to re-assess for sure, God forbid but bloody Collingwood could be a contender. Redb Redb
Ian T
Guest
you make some valid points, but i don't seem to hear about st kilda's negatives.They seem to be a better version of hawtharn and sydney, put sixteen players behind the ball and pump the ball to two big blokes in the forward line, now what happens if those big blokes get injured or have a bad day do they have a plan b or can they just keep this intensity up for the rest of the season. just a thought
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
You've made some valid points, Redb. I don't think they are gone, although I must admit the 2001 analogy does seem fitting. Absolutely, the tall forwards are a big concern. I thought Mooney may have turned a bit of a corner with his second half goals and assist against St Kilda, but his game against Brisbane made it seem like that second half never happened. His confidence has just evaporated this season. Hawkins, on the other hand, is 20/turning 21 later this month. Most key position players don't have a "breakout year" until they are 22 or 23. He's just not old enough or experienced enough to play the role everyone expects him to play, and the added pressue because Mooney isn't performing can't help. Their wildcard going into September is their returning players. Brad Ottens is not only well above Blake and Mumford in the ruck stakes, but he can become an extra tall forward option. Stevie J also takes responsibility away from Mooney and Hawkins, and they are far more dangerous with him inside 50. If both return then all of the sudden, that's a much more attractive forward line than the one that relied on the likes of Milburn pushing up the ground against St Kilda.
BigAl
Guest
Definately Mountain Cats - big ones !! Forget about the game against Brisbane - one of those weird results that come up from time to time in AFL - Brisbane got belted by Port the prev. week for heaven's sake.. Being a Saints fan, I always felt . . . thank goodness we got that first quarter run on. They just seemed to be able to keep coming and coming . . . ... hergggggggghhhh !!!! Then again, how come they lost to Hawthorn last year ?
Redb
Roar Guru
Brian, Fair enough. But I think the Cat's malaise runs deeper than resting players. As a keen Cat's follower due to wife's allegiance I think mentally they've lost their edge. Redb
Brian
Guest
I disagree. All credit to Thompson for learning from 2008 and not repeating the same mistakes. In 2008 they dominated the regular season including beating the Hawks and ended up going to GF day with two under-done players. Whilst many think it was a matter of form on the day it was not. The Hawks won their last 2 regular season matches in 2008 by bigger margins than Geelong and they were much more impressive in disposing of the Bulldogs and just as impressive in disposing of the Saints in getting to the GF. Hard to believe the Hawks did that but that was the form of Aug-Sep 2008. Fast forward to now why would Thompson risk players for a trip to Brisbane. He has learnt the hard way that players can't just switch on for GF day. No point playing your best now. The plan has to be to get them in top form for September, after all only 4 out of the last 14 premierships have been won by the minor premier. The Cats may not win this year but at least they won't lose making the same mistake twice. Far from writing them off they are rightly premiership favourites.
Tom
Guest
Well, you don't have to jump on a plane to go to Kardinia Park to play the Demons. But yeah, maintaining a winning culture is critical, and the Cats looked pretty dispirited in the rooms after the game. Plus, opposition teams have learnt a bit more about the Cats' weaknesses, particularly depth in the backline. Of course, if there was no potential downside, then I wouldn't have said it was a tough call.
Redb
Roar Guru
Tom, If the Cats wanted to give some players a break, why not two or three each game and why not against a team like Melbourne this week down at the Cattery? instead of Brisbane. These kind of things hurt a club's culture, never mess with form. Smacks of Moggies to me. Redb
Tom
Guest
Haha! I'll remember it! I remember in about July 2001 Gerard Whately called the season for Brisbane over Essendon on 774. At that time Essendon were top of the ladder and had hardly been defeated for three seasons. According to Whateley, we only thought Essendon were the best team because of what they'd done before, whereas Brisbane were the best in what they were doing at that time. So maybe its the same thing now. Still, I have a different interpretation of last weekend. I think Thompson made the tough call to sacrifice a game in order to preserve some of his players who couldn't otherwise have lasted until September. I think that might just be a good sign.
Redb
Roar Guru
Tom, I'm not shit stirring per se, I know it is premature to write them off for the season. I think St Kilda have hurt Geelong both physicially and mentally (they were already a little fragile up forward). St Kilda have the look of a club with a strong determination to win regardless of what is ahead. I saw it in Collingwood in 1990, Essendon in 2000, Geelong in 2007, they just have the cliche'd 'eye of the tiger' , the winning mojo spirit. Consider Austin Powers (Geelong) have just had their mojo stolen by Doctor Evil (St kilda), now they may get it back but I dont think the Saints are in any mood to return it this season. Geelong are damaged and only the brilliance of the trio mentioned in the article can rescue their season. So mark 15/7/09 down - you heard it hear first. :-) I agree with your final sentence, Adelaide are not to be underestimated, if Collingwood put down a refreshed Hawthorn easily their winning run may well continue and the Bulldogs need to steady this week agaistnteh Dons to be considered a serious contender. It is making for a very interesting finale to the H & A season. Redb
Tom
Guest
Ah, I just think you're shit-stirring. The date today is the 15th of July. They have two and a half months to get themselves back to their best, which is plenty of time. St Kilda have two and a half months to maintain their current peak, which may well be too long. There'll be plenty of ups and downs yet. I think the most interesting question is whether the Bulldogs, Magpies or the Crows can step up to become genuine challengers to the top two.