Celtic’s Scott McDonald scores the winning goal during the UEFA Champions League Group D match at Celtic Park, Glasgow Wednesday Oct 3, 2007. Celtic won 2-1. AP Photo/ Andrew Milligan
Tonight, UEFA Champions League football returns to the Emirates, 113 days since its last appearance at Arsenal’s home ground. On that occasion, Gunners fans held up giant placards that spelled “believe,” before seeing their team humbled by Manchester United.
This time round it will be the away fans clinging to hope with Arsenal expected to dish out the humiliation upon Celtic.
If things pan out as expected then Celtic will be another Scottish carcass on the ever-growing heap.
The first shock came last year when Lithuania’s FBK Kaunas knocked Rangers out of Europe. That trend has continued this season with Aberdeen’s recent 8-1 aggregate defeat by Sigma Olomouc, Falkirk’s elimination by Vaduz of Liechtenstein and Motherwell’s 6-1 thrashing by Steaua Bucharest.
Hearts, who finished third in the Scottish Premier League last season, then lost their first leg 4-0 away to Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday and it could have been worse.
Things have been tough at international level as well. It’s been 11 long years since Scotland last qualified for a major tournament. If national team manager George Burley fails to qualify the team for next year’s World Cup, as seems likely, it will be the sixth tournament in a row the country has been absent from.
For a nation that was one of the pioneers of the short passing game it’s a sorry state of affairs.
On Sunday there was a fascinating feature in The Observer by Glenn Gibbons that posed the question, “is there any way back for this once-great football nation?”
In the article, Gibbons spoke with Sir Alex Ferguson, who made a revelation that was startling in its honesty and accuracy.
Back when Ferguson was manager of Scottish side Aberdeen, he made the claim that “no Denis Law will ever be allowed to leave Aberdeen again.”
According to the article in The Observer, some 20 odd years later, Ferguson’s opinion has changed.
“Sadly,” the Manchester United manager says, “it’s looking less and less likely that Aberdeen will ever again even produce a Denis Law, far less let him escape.”
As is often the case, Ferguson is right. In the last 20 years the number of Scottish players in the English Premier League has dropped from 16 to 5. While the number in the second tier of English football, the Championship, has marginally increased from 24 to 26. A once proud production line is now producing an abundance of mediocrity.
Naturally there is plenty that can be done to improve the game in Scotland particularly at youth level and the Scottish FA has acknowledged the need for change.
While that would imply there’s hope on the horizon, I fear that the sad truth for followers of Scottish football is that history has already condemned the game in Scotland.
If we cast our gaze back across the annals of time we’ll see that this story has happened before starting with Uruguay.
If the English brought football to South America it was the Uruguayans who revolutionised the game on the continent. For a nation who won two of the first four World Cups, Uruguay have had little impact on the global football landscape for quite some time.
Then there’s Hungary. At Wembley in 1953 the Mighty Magyars gave the English a football lesson, defeating the home side 5-3. Hungary’s implosion at the 1954 World Cup in Switzerland is infamous and that second place finish is their last great achievement.
Both Hungary and Uruguay have had an undeniable effect on the development of modern football but there are two key threads between these countries and Scotland that’s unmistakable.
First of all, Hungary has a population of ten million, Uruguay three and a half million and Scotland five million. Simply put, all three countries don’t have a talent pool big enough to consistently and continuously punch at the highest level.
Furthermore, with football now being as much a business as anything else, economically these three countries stand little chance. The highest GDP out of the lot is Hungary with US196 billion dollars. That’s one-tenth the size of Brazil’s and a quarter the size of Australia’s.
Sadly, these economic and population factors are portent omens for football in Scotland.
What’s truly remarkable about the plight facing Scottish football is not its rapid fall from grace, but that it managed to avoid it for so long.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
You're talking complete nonsense. There are numerous countries with low populations and low GDP who have punched well above their weight over the past two decades - Croatia (5m), Czech Republic (10m), Bulgaria (7m), Slovenia (2m). Even the likes of tiny (and very poor) Cyprus and Macedonia routinely spank richer countries like Ireland and Scotland. Equally, there are plenty of countries with low populations and high GDP who are completely useless - Ireland, Scotland, Belgium, Finland, Norway. You are applying tennis or cricket logic to football in a way that is totally inappropriate. You can't build an expensive facility and build great footballers. If it was that simple, everyone would be doing it. Most great footballers come from the street - and that requires kids to actually be playing in the street, which happens more in poor countries than it does in rich countries. Population is absolutely a factor. GDP simply isn't. If anything, a lower GDP is beneficial. The Guardian article made precisely this point in relation to Scotland.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
It wasn't GDP on its own, it was the combination of low GDP and low population bases - are you reading what's written or not? This is one reason why after much fanfare and bluster over a 30 year period, we are still yet to see an African country reach the top 4 (although 2010 is probably the best chance yet) and why the only country to join the elite in the last 30 years who have won a world cup is a large, wealthy European country .If Uruguay had a GDP like ours, they too could plonk a billion dollars into an AIS facility to produce players who can then claim million dollar contracts around the world. Mind you, they do exceptionally well in that respect, under the circumstances, but they will always be hindered by low population and low GDP. It's hardly an Earth shattering claim.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
I don't see how high GDP helps. Football is not like cricket or tennis - it doesn't require masses of infrastructure or expert coaching. The best footballers have emerged from the street. I would suggest that a low GDP is a positive aid to player development, since kids in poorer countries are more likely to kick a ball around than play video games. This is why Argentina and Brazil continue to produce so many great natural footballers.
David V.
Guest
Hungary's downfall was marked by the 6-0 loss to the Soviet Union in 1986, a match widely thought to have been rigged. The last decade of Communist rule saw corruption become rife in Hungarian football, with generous funding squandered by corrupt officials. Since then they've had numerous false dawns, but the current qualifying campaign seems to be bringing about a genuine revival- they're 2nd in their group. In fact, Malaysia is a remarkably similar case to Hungary- the pervasive corruption in football mirrors the wider problems of the country, and people can't help but intertwine both.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Intelligent article. The cases of Hungary and Uruguay are clear enough - the combination of low populations and low GDP are killers - no doubt - it helps explain why countries like Denmark and Switzerland manage to stay relatively competitive. You could even say that Australia is helped enormously by economic prosperity (otherwise the Government couldn't afford to run an operation like the AIS). In the case of Scotland - I can't believe all is lost given their proximity to the capital of club football in the world.
Well Well
Guest
Its not only there football team that is struggling. Their national rugby side has really under performed for a number of years now. So much so that there was not even one player in the any of lions match day 22 for the 3 tests. They have struggled to beat Italy in the 6N. 10-15 years ago it was wales and ireland that were the whipping boys and the scots were genuine 5 nations chances.
Davidde Corran
Roar Guru
Greg, the Scottish national team just got done 4-0 in Oslo by an average Norway side. Any improvements in the team have been marginal. Celtic's result in Moscow was remarkable for two reasons. First of all it was a great win and a decent achievement but most of all it was the first time Celtic had won an away Champions League fixture since 2003 (that's 23 matches). In terms of population Scotland has a bigger population then Croatia and when it comes to international football they are very competitive.
Dave
Guest
Theres not many Australians in the EPL either Scotland cricket side has also declined http://www.theherald.co.uk/sport/headlines/display.var.2527442.0.Comparison_between_this_team_and_class_of_2005_is_depressing.php Comparison between this team and class of 2005 is depressing On the evidence of a miserable season so far - it has ranged from the Scots' failure to qualify for the 2011 World Cup to John Blain walking out on his country in a fit of pique - Gavin Hamilton's squad go into the fixture almost entirely unencumbered by expectation....... ........The question, though, has to be asked: why is this the case? A decade ago, the Scots took part in a maiden World Cup campaign and produced a gritty display against Steve Waugh's masters of the universe before sparking flurries of apprehension among the Pakistanis and almost toppling Bangladesh. There were genuine signs that the team was capable of climbing to the next level......
The Binocular
Guest
Nice insight. 2003 - Roman takes charge of Chelsea 2005 - Liverpool won the CL 2006 - Arsenal runners up in CL 2007 - Liverpool runner up in CL 2008 - United won CL and Chelsea runners up 2009 - United runners up in CL The injection of cash by Roman Ambramavich has raised the bar in the Premiership and the top clubs have had to respond by increasing their quality as the above stats suggest. Before his arrival Arsenal and United always finished 1st and 2nd. Scotland need to break the monopoly run by Rangers and Celtic, whether this is done by cash or another method it will definitely make the top teams in Scotland more competitive.
midfield general
Guest
Point taken about being a small country, but something, somewhere has gone wrong since about the mid-nighties. Between 1980-90 they kept producing some of the best talent in UK, although they always managed to underachieve in major tournaments. Dalgish, Souness, Strachan, McStay, Cooper, Mo Johnston, McLeish, Miller...the list is endless. Poor coaching and junior development perhaps?
Gibbo
Guest
not to mention the brain drain of scottish coaches by the A-league................
Greg Russell
Roar Guru
And yet, and yet ... 1. I confess I don't follow these things closely, but my impression is that the Scottish national team has actually been on something of an upswing of late. 2. A few weeks ago I was at a conference in Glasgow while all these horrific European defeats were happening. How can one read anything into them given the way Celtic and Rangers devour all the resources in Scottish football? They are such a duopoly that one really cannot expect the rest to be competitive in Europe. 3. By chance I was standing outside a Glasgow pub as an eruption occurred. I soon learned that Celtic had scored a 92nd minute goal to achieve a 2-0 win in Moscow that got them through to the next round of the CL. That's a pretty decent achievement against such opposition. It seems to me that the Glasgow giants are pulling their weight in Europe (e.g. they have each been in a UEFA Cup final this decade), it's just that this weight is not as great as that of England's big 4 - where's the disgrace in that? 4. What more should one really expect from a country of 5 millions where the climate is shite? (I was there in the middle of summer, and even then one would struggle to find a mud-free football field for kids to kick around on!) Just a few discussion points ... I am of no fixed overall view here!
Jamie McTaggart
Roar Rookie
Last statement says it all and I totally agree with article. I saw Scottish football start the decline in the 80s despite our best players gracing the top teams in England but still leaving plenty quality in the Scottish game. Scotland qualifying for consecutive world cops from 1974 to 1990 also papered over the cracks. Its been a failure of everyone from the SFA, SPL, SFL, governments, councils, rangers, celtic the media and the general population all happy to sit back and watch the collapse instead of taking some radical measures to re-structure the game in line with the modern era and culture of Scotland.