Lachie Turner of Australia scores a try during the Australia v Italy Rugby Union game at the Ethiad Stadium in Melbourne, Saturday, June 20th, 2009. Australia won the game 34-12. (AAP Image/Martin Philbey)
In light of recent performances, the Wallabies’ chances of victory this weekend seem remote at best. The Springbok side that will run out onto Suncorp Stadium this Saturday night is in a different league to the one that had 49 unanswered points put on them three years ago.
After being comprehensively outplayed in Perth, this week has seen a number of changes to a Wallabies side that is clearly down on confidence and in desperate need of some sort of spark.
A large majority of the Australian rugby public are hoping, rather optimistically, that Will Genia can provide this.
In his limited game time, Genia has showed composure well beyond his years.
At just 21 years old and with only one season of Super 14 rugby behind him, Genia will complete his meteoric rise to the Wallabies starting side when he runs on to his home ground this weekend.
Genia has impressed all who have seen his play through precise and sharp service as well as a positive intent to make things happen on the field.
With Luke Burgess having failed to cement the starting role over the last eighteen months, this weekend could very well be the beginning of a long Wallabies career for the Queensland halfback.
The return of Berrick Barnes is also a huge positive for the Wallabies as he will undoubtedly sure up the midfield defence, which was emphatically exposed by the Boks in Perth.
Robbie Deans has also given an indication that Barnes will spend time during the match at first receiver, particularly on attack.
This will please many pundits who have been calling for Giteau to be moved out one in the backline, especially after the success Australia had when Quade Cooper took the field in Perth.
The changes in the forwards could perhaps point to a change in approach from the Wallabies.
Tatafu Polota-Nau is a more explosive type of player than Stephen Moore and his strong open-field play is complimented well by his powerful scrimmaging. The only question mark remains over his lineout throwing which is sure to be given a thorough examination by Victor Matfield and company.
A question mark also exists regarding George Smith at No. 8 but you would have to think he will put in a better performance than Richard Brown contributed last week.
The added enthusiasm provided by David Pocock should also help Smith in the battle at the breakdown as well as injecting the Wallabies with added energy.
On paper this side seems to have a lot more going for it than last week, however this will count for nothing if the Wallabies are not mentally prepared.
It was clear at the start of last week that the players were anxious and down on confidence. It wasn’t until they had nothing to lose that they really started to play.
If they are to have any chance against this extremely confident and talented Springbok side then the Wallabies are going to have to turn up for the full 80 minutes and take the game to the Boks.
It is paramount for the Wallabies to utilise the enthusiasm that the new members to the side will provide.
If they are able to start the match with a positive intent, then we may just see an unlikely victory.
However, if the enthusiasm and error rate is anything like what it was in Perth, the players’ confidence will be all but shattered and a reversal of the 2006 score line is much a possibility.
MarkH
Guest
despite the fact that we have been loosing (not by much), I think we are getting into a good position for the next 5 to 10 yrs in Australian Rugby. Shrugging off the shackles of having to continually use the same methods have hurt us for the past 6 or 7 yrs. I dont know what the inner sactum of the ARU are about and I dont really want to know but, players from here on must be picked into there best suited positions. Andy Friend made it clear that Gits wont be playing at 5/8 for the Brumbies. If hes pushing that what the hell is going on with Rugby HQ. Are they seeing what the rest of are or what? Gits plays better with space and on his time not trying to sort out attack, its not his style. Barnsy is the man with Quade as a back up. We should do it tonight.
Westy
Guest
You know its easier when your team is clearly the underdogs. The Wallabies are up against it. No talk of medium/long term change . They need a big old fashioned parochial QLD crowd behind them. Wish they were playing at Ballymore. Will watch on TV Suncorp will help more then Subiaco (souless). Barnes if fit will hold the centre better. They can win. I think they need a good performance for the confidence of the team.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
That's a terrific line - it's so true - while it's not great for Red's fans, general sports fans need teams like the Reds so that they shake their head in disbelief on a regular basis.
reds fan
Guest
Sheek, be careful. "They can't sink any lower" has been my mantra for the Reds for the past .. what?...5 years?? And somehow they astound me with their originality in coming up with more ways to sink lower and lower...
fred
Guest
oj WALLABIES have the same chance of catching a break as i have of catching a wave -nil but maybe the ref will get sympathetic again who knows
Armchair-critic
Roar Pro
Even then they have shown how good they are at blowing leads!
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Seems like a tall ask for the Wallabies. If they defend well, they probably won't have the attack to beat the Springboks. If they attack, the defence mightn't hold up. It doesn't seem like this team can do both. They might catch a break, but I reckon they need at least a two try lead in the first 30.
Nick
Guest
I think that it is going to be extremely difficult for these guys to come in and make a big difference from the start. If the Springboks have shown us anything, it's that continuity makes the difference. Having said that this year’s Tri-Nations are done and dusted for the Wallas. It's time to think of the end of year tour to the Northern Hemisphere. Hope they do well on Saturday I'll just be hoping that It's not a massacre.
Ben J
Guest
Is it possible that the Boks are saving their "Top gear game" for the All Blacks and that the first 20 min in Perth were a dress rehearsel for Waikato? The talent available to the Wallabies in the backs are frightening, the next 18 months will be decisive and they have to get their combinations right. The Boks are all about combinations, 2 Cheetah flankers, 2 Bulls locks, Sharks frontrow, 8,9,10 Bulls, the list goes on De Villiers and Fourie together since 2004.
BAS
Guest
You lot sound like a broken record. The wallabies will become great, they have the potential etc....the fact is they have lost thier last 6 3N games and have no silverware again. How long has it been since they have won anything of substance? stop kidding yourselves. If Henry had any kind of record remotely close to Deans with these Wallabies he would have been gone a long time ago.
Who Needs Melon
Roar Guru
I've actually got a bit of a problem with this notion of Giteau and Barnes sharing the first receiver role. Although we all poo-poo the overly structured approach, there's something to be said for everyone knowing their exact position. When Genia picks up the ball from the back of a ruck, it helps ENORMOUSLY if he can turn and KNOW where Barnes is going to be. The delay - albeit perhaps only a fraction of a second - that he needs to 'find' his first receiver and adjust his pass based on how deep and far he's standing can cost dearly. Same goes for the pass from first to 2nd receiver. And so on. I know we're 'playing what's in front of us' these days but I'm assuming they still practices 'moves' at training these days. Surely the proper execution of those moves involves repitition so that everyone knows where they and others should be. So if Barnes IS the 10, put it on his back. Alternatively, if the plan is to interchange between defense and attack... well frankly I have a bit of an issue with that too since (a) that interchange can occur very frequently and very quickly and (b) it implies you are 'hiding' one of the men presumably since they are fragile in defense in a particular position.
fox
Guest
It will be interesting. If I watch it. Wonder how the ratings will go? As for TPN and his throwing why doesn't anyone think outside the box? Let Robinson throw the lineouts. He is more adept than TPN at this side of the game. The Tahs used him to good effect in this way, though perhaps should have stuck to it. Problem solved! It will be interesting to see how the lineout goes this time. if I were Matfield I would be hanging at 2 all day cos any idiot can see that TPN can't throw long.
Sam Taulelei
Guest
I'm with Sheek, change for changes sake gives the appearance that something is being done but unless fundamentally the team changes how they play the game then it's just a case of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. On another thread I commented that essentially these changes won't count for anything if the Wallabies can't overcome their inability to maintain a lead and there's nothing to suggest that this side has the wherewithal to arrest that slide.
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Our current Wallabies are very, very raw. But they have the ability to become a superb international Rugby side. There not there yet. But these changes are a step in the right direction. I expect a much improved perfromance this week. The question will be whether the Boks improve too. I actually think we may have seen the top gear in the first 20 min in Perth. It was frightening but not bulletproof. I like the idea Burgess on the bench. Coming on at the 60 - 65th minute mark when the majority of the opposition are tired could open up the sides of the ruck for him to have more of a run. It's about time TPN started, has been performing better than Moore all season. Pek Cowan has been in good form in Club Rugby. But I wonder what Sekope Kepu needs to do. He's a strong scrummager, he's quick, athletic and skillful. Basically a disgrace to the front row. Deans should actually look at more player's from Clubland. Guys like Hoiles could add that desperately needed spark missing this season. Being a Tahs fan I hope they have been watching. Ben Smith from Norths looks good, so does Eastwood's young No.7, Dylan Smouha though a little light framed knows how to sniff out a try, Marshall Milroy has been in good form and Adam Darcy is obvious.
couchnorm
Guest
Over the past two seasons the Wallabies have actually made a lot of changes (maybe not the right ones). "Changing deckchairs" won't fix the problems, eventually they will win a game, the law of averages will see to that. Despite all the problems maybe one easy fix would be to use the bench. Effective use can turn a game or keep you in a game.
Armchair-critic
Roar Pro
I think this is the best available side but they are still clear underdogs - worrying signs for Australian rugby. A good finish to this Tri Nations is essential for the development of the side otherwise the Grand Slam could turn out to be a disaster
Even looser
Guest
Totally agree Blinky. Perhaps the headline should have read 'Should Deans have made changes sooner'?, as I'm buggered as to why he waited so long with Burgess when it's obvious to Blind Freddy that Will Genia is worth a chance. Not at all sure why Hynes has been dropped when all 3 wingers have made bloopers. At least Hynes has a go. Perhaps his crime was not passing with a player in support and opting for the kick ahead? But again at least he had a crack at the line. I'd like a win in BrisVegas just to get that smarmy smile of that Bok Coach's face. Have to concede that the Boks are playing damn good Rugby.
Chunks
Roar Pro
Will be very interested in the lineout this week. If we can't compete there, then our kicking game becomes severely restricted and in effect we have to kick it to their wingers and fullback. Hopefully we'll just keep it in hand, make sure Brussouw doesn't get his dirty paws in there (cue Smith and Pocock), give Tatafu, Elsom and Chisolm a few bollocking runs and then send it out wide. But that would mean going more than 2-3 mins without an unforced error. Hmmm.
tropmalk
Guest
Wallas still have a real problem at scrum half, no point in putting Burgess on the bench, he will be a poor substitute unable to produce any spark. Every truly great team has a dominant half back, we don't have any as yet. Also Smith is a great player but an ineffective captain.
sheek
Guest
Well, they had to try something different. And making personnel changes will make the fans happy with the appearance of something being seen to be done. Whether it will result in a win remains to be seen. The Wallabies can't sink any lower. At least I don't think they can. I don't think this is the makings of a great Wallaby team that just can't put it together. Maybe in 1-2 years, but not now. We still have problems at hooker, lock, eightman, scrumhalf, out centre & wing. Whether some or these problems will be sorted out this Saturday night remains to be seen. I will give Giteau the benefit of the doubt that he hasn't been helped by poor service from Burgess. Other than that I would have to say he is horribly overhyped. I'm happy for him & his team mates to prove me wrong come Saturday night, but I'm not expecting a win.