Why Melbourne will win the NRL grand final

By Todd Balym / Roar Guru

Will Chambers (Melb) scores the 1st try NRL – 2009 Preliminary Finals Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Etihad Stadium, Melbourne Saturday 26 September 2009 © Sport the library/Jeff Crow ©Action Photographics

There is a reason why Melbourne are about to play in their fourth straight grand final, and it is not because of any one player.

While Parramatta have ridden the coat-tails of Jarryd Hayne, and maybe one or two others, into the NRL decider, the Storm are here playing off for the premiership trophy yet again because they are the best team of the decade.

From fullback all along the backline, to their hooker and tough forward pack, there is not a single passenger wearing a purple jersey.

Each player has a role and they execute it without fail.

It is what makes Melbourne a brilliant team, and one that will win the 2009 premiership, with or without the breathtaking feats of their superstars.

A Greg Inglis fend, Billy Slater’s blinding speed or the pinpoint accuracy of Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith’s short kicking game.

These are all the added ingredients that have seen Melbourne not just beat, but annihilate reigning premiers Manly 40-12 and 2006 champions Brisbane 40-10 in their past two games.

It is rather poetic that for Melbourne to get into another decider they had to first eliminate the two teams who had caused them grand final heartache.

But unlike any previous season, Melbourne enter the biggest day of the season still running on full steam.

Last year they limped into the decider, they’d lost Smith (suspension) and Ryan Hoffman (injury), the team was mentally and physically fatigued, and they were simple down on form.

Now coach Craig Bellamy has timed their run to perfection.

The players are fresh after a deliberate rest and recovery program late in the season, and furthermore they know exactly what to expect on this stage.

Melbourne have withstood physical intimidation, brutal confrontation and some of the game’s best attacking talent in recent weeks and never looked like losing.

While the Eels haven’t looked like choking this finals series, they’ve yet to play a team as patient as Melbourne at squeezing the life out of their opponents.

Parramatta may believe they’re under no pressure at ANZ Stadium, but the 85,000-seat stadium will be full of blue and gold fans expecting nothing less than victory.

What they’ll need, is another Jarryd Hayne miracle.

MELBOURNE (4th 14-9-1) v PARRAMATTA (8th 12-11-1) at ANZ Stadium, 5pm
Head to head: Storm 12, Eels 9

Last five games:
Eels 18-16 at Parramatta Stadium (rd 19, 2009)
Eels 24-22 at Parramatta Stadium (rd 16, 2008)
Storm 26-10 at Etihad Stadium (preliminary final, 2007)
Storm 14-10 at Olympic Park (rd 23, 2007)
Storm 12-6 at Olympic Park (qualifying final, 2006)

Finals head to head: Storm 3, Eels 0

Finals results
Storm 18-16 at Sydney Football Stadium (Preliminary final, 1999)
Storm 12-6 at Olympic Park (Qualifying final, 2006)
Storm 26-10 at Etihad Stadium ((Preliminary final, 2007)

Biggest head-to-head wins:
Storm 50-12 Olympic Park (rd 23, 2003)
Eels 54-10 Etihad Stadium (rd 20, 2001)

Recent form: Storm LWWWW Eels WLWWW
TAB Sportsbet: Storm $1.60, Eels $2.35
Footytab: Eels +3.5

No-one can question the form of these two sides, with the Storm having been simply dominant in both of their finals wins and the Eels having won 10 of their last 11 matches – becoming the first side to come from eighth to make the grand final since the introduction of the McIntyre system in 1999. Both sides are led by the exploits of their classy No.1s, with even NRL boss David Gallop describing the Billy Slater v Jarryd Hayne clash as a dream match-up for the game. Much has been made of the Eels’ risky attack, but it is worth noting the Storm have run up 40 points in both of their finals wins to show they’re no slouches with the ball in hand. In defence, the Eels have shown an ability to play the full 80 minutes by conceding only four points in the second half of their three finals games, while no team has scored a first-half point against Melbourne in the Storm’s past four games. The Eels have vowed to stick with the game plan that got them this far, but it will be interesting to see if they suffer any stage fright on Sunday night. The Storm have a massive edge in grand final experience, boasting 28 deciders in their squad compared to just four for the Eels.

Key: You’re only as good as your weakest player and, while both line-ups are littered with stars, the battle of the lesser-knowns could well decide the outcome.
Tip: STORM by 12

The Crowd Says:

2009-10-03T15:34:07+00:00

adrien66

Guest


I think too parra will win. Even if they are not favourite, they have a team spirit very strong. They seem a big family and this is why they cant lose. Everyone who have played rugby league knows that everything is possible when you are a family on the field,all the players are ready to 'die' for their teammates. The GF will be an intensive fight in prediction

2009-10-03T15:26:32+00:00

adrien66

Guest


then i agree with you :) . I am not a parra fan but i have to admit he made great things for his club this year. But i agree with your 2nd comment.

2009-10-03T11:20:54+00:00

sheek

Guest


Adrien, True enough, but just bear with me on this one. As the adulation towards Hayne has grown, & having become the "player of the moment", Hayne believes he needs to inject himself more into the game. Yes, he did some wonderful things against Canterbury, but I also noticed on some occasions he bogged the attack down, hogging the ball, & trying to do too much himself. Contrast this with Slater. He's been doing the same "wowing" as Hayne for years, but it's got to the stage where no-one notices anymore. He's taken for granted. Yet with the Storm he only injects himself the "right" amount of times. Value of experience! Don't get me wrong, Hayne is a wonderful talent. But to use horse racing parlance, he's run away with the bit at the moment - he has a full head of steam. He's liable to "blow up" from racing too hard too early. He needs to learn to pace himself like Slater does. That might, I say might, be the lesson Hayne needs to learn from this GF.

2009-10-03T05:07:57+00:00

sam.gilbert

Roar Rookie


if the eels get momentum going, and their many, many offloads go to hand then space will open up for hayne and co. but if they start dropping passes, turning it over or if their forwards dont step up to melbourne's pack they have no chance. parra will only win if everything goes their way, however melbourne will still win if its in their favour or a tight game. also, that right side defence of the eels where grothe likes to come in is matched up with the best centre in the game in inglis. he could easily get a hat trick.

2009-10-03T02:50:51+00:00

aussiegirl

Guest


I agree with Adriene66, Haynes is only 21, he is in top form. He has lifted his teams spirits. I have been a parra supporter since I was 5. This is probably the eels best team of players since the 80's. I think they have a great chance. I'm living in abroad now and watch all the games live stream. I'll be up again cheering for the eels. GO THE EELS!!!!!

2009-10-03T02:12:31+00:00

Luke W

Guest


I agree Melbourne will win, just like Geelong won the AFL grand final. Both teams just have that extra big game experience, been at the top of their respective leagues for a few years, and I'm one of the people who buy into the argument you have to lose a grand final before you can win one.

2009-10-03T01:55:39+00:00

captain nemo

Roar Guru


my head says melbourne, but I would like Parra to win for blokes like Hindmarsh and Cayless. they have been good representatives of the game

2009-10-03T01:23:02+00:00

Andy

Guest


Melbourne have had a very easy run into the grandfinal given the injuries and players out from manly and the broncos losing wallace at 7. So you would want to think that melbourne would beat parramatta but, i think that parramatta can win as well and if parramatta do win it will come down to the forwards and the wingers getting the better of there opposite numbers.

2009-10-03T01:14:58+00:00

adrien66

Guest


Sheek i dont agree with you when you say that hayne has become a nuisance for the eels, just watch the preliminary final of last week, he made 2try assist which one was absolutely amazing.he may be a bit selfish but imagine if you were 21, a great talent, the dally m award etc etc...obviously you'll have a strong ego

2009-10-03T00:14:19+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


Agree about Smith and Cronk, Sheek, who are undoubtedly the linchpins for Melbourne. I'm also glad you've mentioned Finch too, because he's become the perfect foil for Cronk, and the literal straight man for Inglis and Slater. Finch has been getting a lot of press this week, for obvious reasons given his situation this year (and to his credit he's delivered with some outstanding quotes: "I just catch and pass to Inglis, he beats 8 blokes on the way to the line, and I get a try assist..."), but he's also been getting due credit for his ability to take focus off Cronk, and straightening up the Melbourne attack when needed. Inglis' try last week was a classic example: Finch faded away from the scrum before stepping off his left, attracting two defenders perfectly and then got the offload away for Inglis to run to the line untouched. And it's no real surprise that he's staying in Melbourne on a cut-price deal next year either. It's a credit to him, how he's handled it all this year..

2009-10-03T00:00:41+00:00

sheek

Guest


Cameron Smith is the key to Melbourne, & his absence from last year's GF was devastating for the Storm. There may be better, more electrifying players than Smith, but he is the chief organiser, tactician, playmaker, captain & goalkicker. He gives the team their direction. I think Jarrod Hayne is believing all the press written about him, & has been mouthing off a bit too much, providing the Storm with extra incentive to both shut him down & shut him up. I actually think Hayne has become a nuisance to the Eels natural flow in recent weeks. He is involving himself a tad too much, believing he is a one-man band. So far, both Hayne & the Eels have got away with it. On the point of one-man band, the Storm have plenty of options. Smith, Cronk & Finch are the playmakers, & can vary the point & direction of the attack between them. Slater & Inglis are the sharp ends of their attack, with plenty of good support players. The pack is tough & uncompromising. It should be a good game, weather permitting, with the Storm finishing over the top of the Eels. It's often said you need to lose a GF before winning one, & this might be the lesson needed by the Eels in 2009.

2009-10-02T23:44:41+00:00

Spiro Zavos

Expert


The bookmakers are picking the Storm to win, and this is a strong sign for them. Also the weather could help their grinding game more than the expansive, quick-moving game played by the Eels. But then there is last year's finals when the Storm could not cope with the fast game played by Manly. In other words, anything is possible. The two referees have helped fast teams like the Eels. But the Storm have their skipper Cameron Smith back for this final and he is probably the most important player for the Storm as he gets his hands on the ball more than any other player.

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