Gold Coast United FC head coach and director of football, Miron Bleiberg (centre) celebrates with Football Federation Australia (FFA) CEO Ben Buckley and Gold Coast United CEO Clive Mensink at Skilled Park on the Gold Coast, Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008. AAP Image/Dave Hunt
It’s about six months out from the deadline, the FFA has to put in its formal bid to FIFA for Australia to host the 2018 or 2022 World Cup, and the fans of Australia’s more popular domestic codes have discovered the sacrifice they will need to make smack bang in the middle of their seasons.
No less than an eight week hiatus over June and July.
It’s inconceivable that the AFL would ever agree to such a drastic action, considering that Melbourne has not gone with more than one weekend without its own brand of football over the course of 150 years.
Interestingly, Ben Buckley would know this only too well, having operated as Demetriou’s right hand man up to a few years ago.
So what precisely is happening?
The clue to the game being played out is in the manner in which Frank Lowy always publicly mentions 2018 as if Australia is a realistic chance to win hosting rights.
We all understand that Australia has a snowball’s chance of winning the rights to 2018 (it’s a slightly different matter for 2022), and most importantly, Frank Lowy would know that better than anyone else.
This is our main clue to what is truly happening.
That which is being played out before our very eyes has nothing to do with winning hosting rights for 2018, and everything to do with the Federal Government (and State Governments) believing that Australia is a realistic chance for 2018.
With the bid due in May 2010, and the details of all dozen or so stadiums that will be required around Australia needing to be finely calibrated, at some point over the next few months, the Federal Government (along with any State Government wanting to get further into debt) will need to commit two or three billion dollars over the next six years to put in a credible bid in relation to 2018.
Whether 2018 is won or lost is not the key here – nailing those billions of dollars in government funding is the name of the game.
The money will be locked into the forward estimates of the 2010-11 budget by May 2010, and that will be a victory in its own right.
Pretending to win 2018 means the money is committed sooner rather than later.
What if both 2018 and 2022 fails? Some heavy duty lobbying will need to commence to ensure that as much money in the budget as possible is salvaged – but the all important first step is getting it in there.
So as you read this, Ben Buckley is meeting with Andrew Demetriou in Jolimont, and the conversation is going something like this:
AD: Two months??!! You never said anything about closing shop for two months.
BB: It’s all right Andy, it’s not going to happen, we won’t win it, you just have to pretend to agree to it.
AD: But mate, footy fans will want my head for this.
BB: You just have to ride it out, think of all the loot that’s waiting at the end of it all!
AD: All right Bucks, let’s talk about how we split it up.
BB: We both get a multi purpose stadium in Adelaide.
AD: Tick. And can you throw in an upgrade of Subi?
BB: Ok. We get an upgrade of Bruce, and you get an upgrade of Manuka.
AD: Tick.
BB: We get upgrades of the grounds in Wollongong and Newcastle, and a new ground out West somewhere; you get your upgrade of the showgrounds.
AD: Hmm ok, but we need that one pretty quickly.
BB: I’ll try and set that one up as the first cab off the rank.
AD: Ok.
BB: We get an upgrade of Dairy Farmers, and you get an upgrade of Carrara. How’s that looking?
AD: Hmm, can you throw in an upgrade of the oval at Cairns??
BB: Geez, how am I going to sell that one?
AD: Tell ‘em Costa Rica will use it as a training base.
BB: Good one Andy!!
AD: Is it really this easy to get money out of the Feds?
BB: Yeah, it is, we just keep telling them that for a $3 billion investment in sports infrastructure, we get $5 billion back in economic activity (which includes their original $3 billion, but they don’t know that), and we leave our kids a lasting legacy – it wins the argument every time!
(The above dialogue, and indeed the whole of this article, is completely made up and is not intended to cast aspersions on anyone’s good character except my own).
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Ok, so with the Gold Coast out as both a host city and one of the stadiums, what are we left with? Let's assume Perth is in, Canberra out: Host cities: 1. Sydney (2 stadiums) 2. Brisbane 3. Melbourne 4. Perth 5. Adelaide 6. Newcastle 7. Wollongong 8. Townsville that makes up 9 stadiums, we need 3 more. But where are the three more? Folks - they don't exist!! We can barely scrape together 8 host cities - and we do not have anywhere else where we can build three 43.000 capacity stadiums!! But what I am tyring to come to grips is: how on Earth did we ever believe we could win hosting rights to the World Cup?? We are miles away from being able to do it - absolulely miles away - it's not even close!!!
Michael C
Guest
yeah, that was disclosed quietly a few weeks back when the quiet little story about the MRS came to light. There's a few stories being 'buried' by the general media.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
By the way folks - I've just heard that Robina can't be used (can't be upgraded to 43,000). So that's another potential host city out of the reckoning. They're dropping like flies!!
Joe FC
Guest
Pippinu as George E Woodberry once said "Defeat is not the worst of failures. Not to have tried is the true failure."
AndyRoo
Roar Guru
Whats the definition of a city for Fifa Purposes? Are Parramatta and Logan separate cities?
Pippinu
Roar Guru
As the details of what FIFA requires to host a WC become clearer, it becomes equally clear that we don't have a ghost of a chance. This is what we know: 1. We need 8 cities to host groups, each group contains 4 countries who will need their own training facilities 2. We need 12 stadiums in total, only one city can have two stadiums – so that's 11 towns/cities in total 3. We need two stadiums with min. capacity of 65,000 and the other 10 must have a min. of 43,000. So let's put this all together and see what we get. 1. Sydney: ANZ stadium gives us one above 65,000, and the SFS is already at 43,000. A coat of paint should have them right for 2022, no worries there. It also means that Sydney is our one city with two stadiums. Should be no problem with training grounds. 2. Brisbane: Lang Park is already an excellent facility, once again, only needs a coat of paint. However, if we decided we didn't want the MCG, we could consider making this our 2nd stadium at 65,000? Broncos already average above 30,000 during the regular season, gets used for SOO and League and A-League finals, suitable for soccer internationals – might be a fair enough case for that. Should be no problem with training grounds. 3. Melbourne: Clearly, both MCG and the Dome are no goes. That means we either choose the MCG as our other large stadium choice, or we leave the MCG for the AFL, and use the Dome with its 55,000 odd capacity. Should be no problem with training grounds. 4. Perth: As for our 4th largest city – not too much is being said – could do with a 43,000 capacity stadium for the Glory, Force and maybe future League side, but no commitments yet – this is down only as a maybe. 5. Adelaide: In a similar situation as Perth, except it doesn't really need a rectangular stadium at all (well, not one with a 43,000 capacity). The talk at the moment is converting Adelaide Oval into a multi-use 55,000 stadium. Looks like happening, not sure if FIFA would be rapt – no problem with training facilities. 6. Gold Coast: ok, that’s the five mainland state capitals and five largest cities out of the way. Next we get to the Gold Coast. They've got a nice stadium that would need to be increased by some 60% capacity to get to 43,000 - unsure of the logistics. Let's presume it's possible, but unsure whether 4 suitable training grounds are in the area. 7. Newcastle : doesn't need too much of an increase to get to 43,000, probably doable, but unsure if they have 4 suitable training grounds in the area. 8. Canberra: at the moment, our 7th largest population centre is out of the picture. 9. Wollongong: probably needs a completely new ground to get to 43,000. Hasn't really been mentioned as a possible site to host a group. Unsure if 4 suitable training venues are in the area. 10. Townsville: also needs an increase in capacity of around 60% to get to 43,000, unsure of the logistics, and unsure if 4 suitable training grounds are in the area. 11. Tassie: would need a brand new 43,000 stadium, for which it has no use. 12. Central Coast: very unlikely that they would more than double the existing stadium to 43,000. 13. Is anyone left?? So what do we have? We have six definite starters to host groups: Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide, Gold Coast and Newcastle. Perth, Townsville and Wollongong are maybes – so we should be able to get to 8 host cities, but without both Canberra and Perth, it's starting to look a little light on (having to use, potentially, both Townsville and Wollongong). Let's assume Perth is in as a host city, and one of either Townsville or Wollongong is used, the other would be our 10th stadium. We need two more stadiums of 43,000. Where are the other two stadiums? It's obvious that without Canberra – the bid is already borderline. Without Perth – it's absolutely dead in the water – absolutely dead.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Nothing that we haven't discussed ad nauseum here on the Roar. The honest truth is that I don't think anyone has a clue at the moment - and I don't think the FFA has got down to the nitty gritty yet with anyone.
AndyRoo
Roar Guru
What was the summary? Tuesday night is pizza and Dvd night at my house.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Sorry - I was wrong - it wasn't the biggest night in Australian sporting history afterall.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Actually - they both start at 8pm - goddam - some strategic flicking might be the order of the day!!
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Ok folks - a big night of sport tonight - no - I don't mean live sport. 7:30 - Fox FC 8:00 - The Back Page (bit of an overlap unfortunately) I've just heard that on the Back Page, they will be discussing this whole 8 week break business - should be interesting. I suspect Cockerill will mention it on Fox FC as well. Tonight could be the biggest night in sport in Australian history!!!
mahony
Guest
Spot on PIP. I would love a final at the MCG (viewing concerns allowed for) becasue it would be a supreme event - but the bid comes first, and if that means no MCG - then so be it!
mahony
Guest
Except grow the game......?
mahony
Guest
They need to break to get the pitch sorted - no other reason. This is a pre-condition and a non-negotiable one I would suggest. The playing surface is sacrosanct in football and the World Cup of Football deserves the best surfaces in the world.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
The economics of football can be interesting. Get 30,000 in an expensive stadium like the Dome and you might struggle to break even. Fill a 10,000 capacity ground, including some premium seats, and you might find yourself awash with money (if you happen to own the ground outright).
AndyRoo
Roar Guru
If it's oval shaped it means the ground has been really wrecked. Those AFL mad mondays get way out of hand. Perhaps the vision for the second division could be teams that own their own grounds, even if they are 5k sheds on a park I think that might be the future for regional teams to actually make money.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
mahony you might have to wait a very long time!!
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Mahony Aussie rules is played on an oval - so how can they be stuffing up your grounds?
mahony
Guest
The other codes stuff up our grounds - TRUE Media interests are holding our game back - TRUE Futbol administrators from other codes dont know how to run futbol - FALSE Australians are too insular to follow the world game - FALSE
mahony
Guest
I do! But thats just me.